SpaceX, OPEX, and the Flows Behind the Biggest IPO in History

In this episode of The OPEX Effect, Brent Kochuba and Jack Forehand break down the market structure impact of the SpaceX IPO, options expiration, dealer gamma, volatility, and the next major setup for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. They discuss why SpaceX may trade more on flows than fundamentals, how call buying could create a gamma squeeze, and why June OPEX, VIX expiration, FOMC, oil, Iran headlines, and index inclusion could all collide at once.

Brent Kochuba on X
https://x.com/spotgamma

SpotGamma
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Topics covered:

• Why SpaceX is a flows game at the start of trading

• How the SpaceX IPO could affect liquidity across mega cap tech stocks

• Why fundamentals may not matter when index flows and forced buying dominate

• The role of Nasdaq, Russell, and S&P 500 index decisions in SpaceX trading

• How options could create a gamma squeeze in SpaceX

• Why dealer hedging flows can push stocks higher or lower

• What June options expiration could mean for the S&P 500

• Why VIX expiration and FOMC create a key market window

• How Core1M signaled the recent volatility spasm

• Why expensive calls, not put buying, drove the recent market stress

• The key S&P 500 levels Brent is watching into OPEX

• How oil, rates, inflation, and Fed policy could affect market volatility

• Why Nasdaq options pricing is diverging from the S&P 500

• How SpaceX index inclusion could widen the gap between Nasdaq and the S&P

• What would make Brent add protection or look for another short-term market correction

Timestamps:

00:00 Opening clips and the SpaceX flow setup
05:27 Elon Musk net worth after the SpaceX IPO
07:13 SpaceX, liquidity, Mag Seven selling, and index demand
12:48 Why SpaceX may trade on flows before fundamentals
17:59 What options trading could change for SpaceX
22:05 How call buying can create a gamma squeeze
28:24 Why June OPEX matters more than a normal expiration
33:55 VIX expiration, FOMC, and market path dependency
37:20 The Core1M signal and the recent volatility spasm
41:22 The S&P 500 gamma map and key risk levels
46:25 Why expensive calls drove the market stress
50:14 Oil, rates, inflation, and the Fed setup
57:03 The JPMorgan collar and the 6900 to 7000 support zone
58:32 Nasdaq versus S&P 500 after the SpaceX IPO
01:03:14 Brent’s summary, SpaceX gamma squeeze risk, and the next market setup