Israel Today: Ongoing War Report - Update from 2026-07-08 at 18:02

HEADLINES
- Iran Calibrates Limited Strikes Over Hormuz
- US Expands Strikes to Degrade Iran Threat
- Trump Delists Syria from State Sponsor List

The time is now 6:01 PM in New York, I'm Noa Levi and this is the latest Israel Today: Ongoing War Report.

In Iranian Retaliation, Iran plays with fire, but calculates Trump will hold back. Experts say Tehran is weighing a paradoxical, high‑risk move intended to strengthen its long‑term deterrent through calibrated, limited strikes that invite but do not yet trigger a broader US response. The aim, they say, is to restore deterrence without crossing into all‑out war, while counting on Washington to avoid a full escalation that could push oil prices higher and complicate domestic politics ahead of elections. Iran’s leverage centers on its control of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow gateway for a significant portion of global oil shipments. Analysts say time is on Iran’s side and that Tehran believes it can endure more than the United States and Gulf states. Washington has framed the situation as a pause in broader hostilities, with officials noting that Trump has shown restraint in ceasefire rhetoric since April.

In US Military Role, the US is seeking to take the initiative with new Iran strikes - analysis. Washington is moving to seize the initiative through additional strikes aimed at degrading Iran’s ability to threaten freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and to hold Tehran accountable for recent aggression against commercial shipping. President Trump, at the NATO Summit in Ankara, has dismissed Iran’s seriousness in talks on a Memorandum of Understanding, signaling a tougher line. Strikes have continued into the evening, broadening the campaign beyond earlier actions as officials emphasize a sustained effort to deter Iran’s maritime threats. Explosions were heard in southern Iran as US airstrikes were reported to be ongoing, with Iran’s state media noting air defenses active in the region and suggesting damage in places such as Chabahar. Iranian authorities reported hospital damage and power outages, while Iranian outlets claimed an Iranian response was being prepared. US forces also targeted a base operated by the IRGC in Bushehr, part of the broader campaign, and CENTCOM said fresh strikes were underway to degrade Iran’s capabilities. A Hebrew-language post circulated claims of further US strikes, reflecting the vigilance and rapid updates surrounding the campaign.

In Regional Impacts, EU Aviation Safety Agency loosens restrictions on flights to Israel. The European Union Aviation Safety Agency downgraded its risk designation for Israel and parts of the Middle East, replacing the prior high‑risk advisory with a medium‑level Information Note as the old Conflict Zone Information Bulletin expired. Airlines can now decide, based on their own security assessments, whether to return to Israel, with major carriers such as easyJet, Ryanair, and WizzAir weighing routes and insurance implications. The move comes amid ongoing regional tensions and questions about air travel risk in a volatile corridor. Saudi Arabia explores IMEC route through Syria, sidestepping Israel, sources tell The Jerusalem Post. Riyadh is considering rerouting the India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor to run through Syria rather than Israel, a shift driven by the Gaza conflict and shifts in momentum toward normalization with Israel. The IMEC project would connect India to Europe via the Gulf and the Eastern Mediterranean, leveraging rail, ports, and shipping links; the change could alter the role Israel plays in regional logistics. Only clans can govern Gaza after Hamas disarmed, NCAG will fail, MidEast expert says - interview. Dr. Mordechai Kedar argues that Gaza can only be effectively governed by local clans within an emirate‑style framework and that any centralized Palestinian government is not feasible; he contends that Hamas would need to be removed first for governance by clans to work, citing Gulf emirates as models of clan‑based governance. He acknowledged deep cultural divides that complicate a unified Palestinian state and framed the clan approach as a potential pathway for stability in Gaza, though it remains a controversial and debated proposal.

In US Policy Concerning Israel, US to delist Syria as state sponsor of terror, in new boost to Sharaa. President Trump informed Syrian President Ahmed al‑Sharaa that he had decided to remove Syria from the US list of designated state sponsors of terrorism, saying he promised to remove barriers to rebuilding the country and that American firms would invest to help Syria prosper. Meeting in Ankara, Trump complimented Sharaa, saying he is “doing an unbelievable job” unifying Syria, and that Syria’s governance had become less chaotic than under the previous regime. Secretary of State Marco Rubio formally informed Congress of the move, which will undergo a 45‑day review. The decision marks a notable shift in US policy toward Damascus as Trump also signaled a broader rethinking of relations with regional partners.

In Israeli Domestic Politics, Eisenkot's Yashar edges out Netanyahu's Likud for first time in new Channel 13 poll. The poll marks the first time Eisenkot’s Yashar Party leads Likud in the survey, signaling a potential pivot in Israeli political dynamics. Yashar is shown at 23 seats, with Likud at 22; Together under Naftali Bennett at 15 seats. Additional parties and blocs register smaller shares, with several traditional players polling below thresholds. The results reflect growing public support for Eisenkot over Netanyahu and foreshadow a shifting landscape should elections be held under the current conditions.

Thank you for tuning in to this Israel Today: Ongoing War Report update.
I'm Noa Levi. Stay safe and informed.
Keep in mind that this AI-generated report may contain occasional inaccuracies, so consult multiple sources for a comprehensive view. Find the code and more details in the podcast description.

SOURCES
https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/07/iran-plays-fire-calculates-trump-will-hold-back
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-901937
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-901936
https://t.me/newssil/206231
https://t.me/DefenderDome/22028
https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/07/us-military-conducting-fresh-strikes-iran
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-901929
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-901922
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-901903
https://www.timesofisrael.com/us-to-delist-syria-as-state-sponsor-of-terror-in-new-boost-to-sharaa/
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-901932