Episide 144: Everybody's Knackered: Oil, Chips and Chokepoints

Steve, Tom and Jacob are back (with working microphones this time) to unpack a week where the cracks got harder to ignore.

The Iran ceasefire has collapsed, tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is running at a third of normal, and shipping insurance costs have jumped sevenfold. The lads explain why "oil" isn't one thing, why China's demand drop saved us last time, and why a genuine supply shock may still be creeping up on us.

Then it's over to Korea, where the stock market swung wildly all week and the CAPE ratio has bolted from 17 to 44 in twelve months. Compare that with Indonesia, Brazil and Turkey sitting near 10, and the case for emerging markets and commodities starts to write itself.

Plus: the AI earnings problem nobody wants to talk about, semiconductors now making up 20% of the S&P 500, what Buffett's IBM exit really tells us, and why margin debt at $1.5 trillion should have your attention. The title says it all: every country holds a chokepoint, and everybody's knackered.

Watch Your Edge: markets can go sideways for 15 years or more. The era of quick capital gains is over, and the game is shifting to income and yield.

Subscribe to the free Signals & Noise newsletter: https://www.totalmoneymanagement.com.au/

Want to go deeper? Join Signals & Noise Premium for weekly analysis, Stock Thoughts, and our monthly live coaching call.

This podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Total Money Management | AFSL 568642.

Det här avsnittet är hämtat från ett öppet RSS-flöde och publiceras inte av Podme. Det kan innehålla reklam.

Avsnitt(165)

Episode 150: Sanctions, Oil and Three Years On

150 episodes. Over three years of cutting through the noise together. To mark it, Steve, Tom and Jacob run through this week's biggest stories: new US sanctions on Iran and what they mean for oil, why...

30 Aug 47min

Ep 149: The World Order Is Breaking, and Why Australian Property Isn't Coming Back

This week Steve, Jacob and Tom cover the shifting global order, why America is pulling back from being the world's policeman, and what that means for trade, tariffs and geopolitics. They also break do...

23 Aug 48min

Episode 148: The Anti-Fragile Investor Part 2

Part 2 of the Anti-Fragile Investor. Steve Moriarty and Jacob Senior move from theory to practice, walking through Taleb's six operational principles, the barbell strategy, and why volatility drag mak...

16 Aug 41min

Episode 147: Oil Wars, Crypto Chaos and a $20 Billion Leverage Lesson

Oil is swinging wildly as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz escalate and Trump pushes for a deal. A $116 million crypto hack just hit cold storage wallets across 5,200 addresses. And a 25 year old "gen...

9 Aug 41min

Episode 146: The Antifragile Investor (Part 1)

Markets can go sideways for ten or fifteen years. The CAPE ratio sits at 42. Global debt is stretched, and retail investors are piling into property, Bitcoin, and leveraged ETFs. So what happens next,...

2 Aug 39min

Episode 145: The Property Game Is Over

Oil just jumped 20% in a fortnight, the US market is priced for perfection, and Australian property looks like it has finally rolled over. Red flags are everywhere.Steve, Tom and Jacob run through the...

26 Juli 45min

Episode 143: A TMM Monologue

Episode 143: A TMM MonologueThe ceasefire didn't hold, and neither did the calm. This week Steve flies solo (audio only) with a look at what the renewed Iran-US conflict means for oil, helium and fert...

15 Juli 16min