Predictive History, Professor Jiang, No Ads8 Apr

Civilization #8: Rat Utopia and the Peloponnesian War

In his book The Peloponnesian War, Thucydides explains that the war started because Sparta saw Athens as a threat to its hegemony. In this talk Jiang Xueqin argues that the American scientist James Calhoun’s “rat utopia” experiments offer a better explanation. In the 1950s and 1960s James Calhoun conducted experiments in which colonies of rats were put into worlds of plenty and abundance. All these experiments ended in disaster. Rather than enjoying paradise, the rats violently fought amongst themselves, and their social order collapsed. Why did this happen? In a wealthy world, high-status rats could live longer, which meant younger rats had no opportunities to achieve status. Consumed by anxiety and anger, this younger generation became violent and destructive. Fifth-century Athens was a “rat utopia.” After Persia was defeated in 479 BCE, Athens established the Delian League, and it became a de facto empire. The upper nobility was happy with the status quo, but the lower nobility clamored for opportunities to achieve fame and fortune. Athens became expansionist and imperial to ease its internal contradictions, and this ultimately led to the outbreak of the Peloponnesian War.

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Global Meet-Up #4 (Austin, Texas): American Prophecy

On Sunday, August 23rd, Professor Jiang discusses Trump's 3rd Term in Austin, Texas. Thanks to Jintae Cho for organizing the meet-up, and David Rhoads for filming the event.Please follow David's work ...

1 Sep 2h 28min

Global Meet-Up #2 (Los Angeles): The "End of the World" US Tour

On Saturday, August 8, 2026, Professor Jiang spoke at the Kinn (https://thekinn.co/) in Venice, California. Many thanks to Ally Fekaiki for organizing and moderating the event. Because of his generosi...

18 Aug 1h 39min

Global Meet-Up #3 (New York City): The Eschatology of Capitalism

On Saturday, August 15, 2026, Professor Jiang visited New York City to deliver a lecture on why the Iran started, and where it is going. He explains the origins of transnational capitalism, and how se...

16 Aug 2h 35min

Emergency Discussion #2: The Blackmailing of Spain

In this Saturday, August 1 Zoom discussion, we examine and discuss why and how 50,000 migrants flooded the Spanish enclave of Ceuta.

2 Aug 3h 2min

Emergency Discussion #1: Spain Wins World Cup, US Plans Ground Invasion of Iran

In this July 20, 2026 Zoom discussion, Professor Jiang discusses current events, and answers questions from Substack subscribers.

20 Juli 2h 25min

Live with Predictive History #2: US-Iran War, World Cup

A recording from Predictive History's live videohttps://predictivehistory.substack.co...

18 Juli 1h 26min

Global Meet-Up #1 (Tokyo): Japan's Geo-Political Outlook

On Tuesday, July 14, 2026, Professor Jiang visited Tokyo, and discussed Japan's geo-political outlook. What follows are highlights from the 3-hour event. Much appreciation to Keito Ochi for organizing...

17 Juli 41min