Is ADAS the Trojan Horse Into Autonomy?

This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss the Waymo/Uber divorce going public, Zoox receiving NHTSA approval to charge for rides, Aurora earnings, and Qualcomm's BMW win as ADAS becomes the Trojan horse into autonomy.

The Waymo/Uber relationship is unraveling in public, with The Financial Times confirming Waymo will launch its own app in Austin and Atlanta in January 2028 before the contract expires that May. Both sides are airing grievances, from dirty cars and bad routing to weather no-shows and unsustainable financial terms. Grayson goes on the record that the relationship terminates early, calling for a Waymo app in those markets by June 2027, while Walt takes the under.

After 12 years and billions of dollars, Zoox can finally charge for a ride. NHTSA granted an exemption capped at 2,500 vehicles per year for two years, a ruling that also creates a potential viable deployment path for Tesla's Cybercab.

In autonomous trucking, Aurora is targeting 1,000 trucks by the end of next year against 200 this year, a heavily back-end loaded ramp that depends on truck supply, Roush capacity, and unresolved questions about how the Volvo Autonomous Solutions margin split works. Meanwhile, Qualcomm's selection by BMW as lead compute for next-generation ADAS confirms the growth of the L2+ market and positions Snapdragon as the Trojan horse into autonomy compute.

On the Foreign Autonomy Desk, Baidu began RT6 robotaxi testing in London with both Uber and Lyft on the outskirts of the city, received a full driverless permit in Hong Kong, and China resumed issuing robotaxi permits once again.

Episode Chapters

0:00 Waymo/Uber Divorce Goes Public

5:45 Uber's Autonomous Vehicle Partner Problem

10:28 Waymo's OEM Partner Signals

12:25 Zoox Gets the Golden Ticket

16:52 Advancing America’s Safety and Competitiveness for the Evolution of National Deployments

20:16 Aurora Q2 2026 Earnings

27:43 How Big Is the OEM Risk?

30:38 ADAS as the Trojan Horse Into Autonomy

35:42 Ford BlueCruise Falls Short

37:23 Foreign Autonomy Desk: Baidu RT6 Testing in London with Uber & Lyft

41:33 Next Week

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