Why Oil Isn't High Enough to Matter (Yet)
The 10 year yield continues to breakout and the Nasdaq is still near its highs. We walk through why rates and crude are not binding the economy yet, why yields may just be catching up to what stocks a...
25 Sep 31min
What Happens When the Bond Market Hunts the Fed
The Fed hiked into an energy shock this week and we think the bond market forced their hand. We break down why this move is oil driven, not growth driven, why the 5% ceiling on the 10 year does not ho...
18 Sep 50min
Why Rising Interest Rates Don't Mean What You Think
Yields are ripping while growth flatlines, and that combination is restrictive, not bullish. We break down why rates above 4.75% stop helping banks, what the regime map says comes after stagflation, a...
11 Sep 42min
Bitcoin: The Real Reason We Are Not Buying Yet
Bitcoin is squeezing shorts and we explain what we need to see before taking our leveraged long. We look at rates pressing the 4.75 ceiling into NFP, housing and homebuilders, and whether the consumer...
4 Sep 39min
The 10-Year Yield Level That Will Break the Market
We cover the rotation out of AI hardware into software, the gold versus Bitcoin trade, what Bitcoin still needs before we buy it, and why the debasement trade is the wrong frame. Plus Warsh into Jacks...
28 Aug 34min
The Bitcoin Short Squeeze: What You Need to Know
Bitcoin surged this week on a record wave of short liquidations, and gold broke out alongside it, but equities never confirmed the move. We explain why this looks like a short squeeze rather than the ...
21 Aug 40min
The Leaders of the Last 6 Months Won't Lead the Next
The S&P printed an all-time high on an Iran headline that's fallen through every other time it's shown up, semis are still 15% off their highs, and until our system flips we think this is a fake out. ...
7 Aug 29min
