Ep. 107 — Should You Wait for BC Mortgage Rates to Drop? CMHC 2026 Forecast & The Four Rate Buckets Explained

Should you wait for BC mortgage rates to drop before buying? In Episode 107 of The Real Deal Pod, Fraser Valley realtor Allister Carrington and BC mortgage broker Geoff Lee answer that directly — and explain why the BC mortgage rate you find online is probably not the rate you'd actually qualify for.

As of August 21, 2026, the BC mortgage rate range runs from 3.55% to 4.75%. Which end you land on depends on four questions — what you're buying, what you're putting down, what amortization you choose, and whether it's owner-occupied or a rental. Most rate sites, lenders, and even some brokers skip these questions entirely, leaving buyers pre-approved in the wrong bucket with the wrong rate.

They also cover the CMHC mid-year 2026 housing forecast, which shows BC and Ontario headed in dramatically different directions — BC housing starts falling toward 2028 while Ontario's resale market is set to jump to around 77,000 sales. Allister explains why Ontario's HST relief drove that gap and why BC's equivalent grant doesn't replicate the math.

What you'll learn:

• CMHC's mid-year 2026 forecast: BC housing starts falling, Ontario resale surging — and why

• Why CMHC cites "high borrowing costs" as a drag — and why Allister and Geoff challenge that framing

• The four BC mortgage rate buckets: insured, insurable, uninsurable, and investment

• Why there are 20+ possible rates within those buckets — and how to know which one you're in

• Why the sub-2% rates people are waiting for required a once-in-200-years pandemic

• Canada's inflation at 3.2% — above the Bank of Canada's 1–3% target — and what that means for variable rate holders heading into the September 2nd meeting

• What a 0.25% rate increase actually costs: on a $600,000 mortgage, about $83/month

• Why today's BC mortgage rate environment is the new normal — and why treating it as temporary is costly

• Renting vs. buying in BC: why ownership is often cheaper than renting at current prices and rates

• The CMHC 100x net worth gap — condo owners in their 30s worth $440,000 vs. renters worth $44,000

Hosted by Allister Carrington | BC Realtor, KIC Realty | www.AllisterCarrington.com Co-hosted by Geoff Lee | BC Mortgage Broker, GLM Mortgage Group | www.GLMmortgage.com