Technicals: Week 35

Tuesday, September 1, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS: Price context ~$84.90-$86.29 recently (e.g., 85.63 one platform), intraday ranges 84.13-86.78. RSI14 ~54.9-58 neutral-to-buy signal; some 57-62 shorter timeframes showing rising momentum or sideways ~50-62. MACD12/26 positive/buy signals multiple sources (e.g., +0.65 or rising positive territory 4H); one daily +0.80 with mixed oscillators. Moving averages strong buy on daily timeframe (8-11 buy vs. fewer sells); shorter MAs 5/10-day often sell/mixed, 20/50/100/200-day mostly buy. Specific MAs approximate recent: MA5 ~86.0 sell/mixed, MA10 ~85.9 sell/mixed, MA20 ~85.2 buy, MA50 ~83.9 buy, MA100 ~82.8 buy, MA200 ~83.5-84.2 buy. Barchart Sep26 futures 5-day MA 85.10, 20-day 82.30, 50-day 78.63, 100-day 81.69, 200-day 72.46; 14-day RSI/stochastic 60-92 range (overbought shorter periods). Support levels key clusters ~82.67 (recent support/Bullish Engulfing), 80.00-80.53, 79.28-79.95 (61.8% Fib/50-day MA confluence), 78.42-78.95 (200-day MA zone), lower 76-73. Resistance levels key clusters ~85.09 (initial breakout target), 86.99 (key weekly resistance/Dark Cloud Cover), 87.30-90.46, higher 92-94+. Patterns symmetrical triangle consolidation (breakout potential by mid-September), prior rising wedge breakdown testing supports, Bear Flag on weekly chart targeting lower levels long-term. Oscillators daily mixed/neutral (e.g., Stochastic ~60-71 buy, CCI neutral, ADX mixed ~23-29); some sell on MACD momentum or oversold Stochastic RSI. LiteFinance Sep1 2026 forecast potential continuation higher; daily range ~78.42-89.72 (average ~84.07). Longer-term weekly view mixed signals with possible downside bias below 79.28 (Bear Flag target toward 51+ long-term); supports 75.19, 71.26 etc.; resistances 83.53, 86.99+. Pivot points classic pivot ~85.92; supports S1 ~85.46 / S2 ~84.94; resistances R1 ~86.44 / R2 ~86.90. Overall signal consensus recent daily moving averages strong buy; oscillators neutral-to-buy; summary often "buy" or "strong buy." Caveats signals can shift quickly with news (geopolitics, OPEC+); some sources note weakening momentum or consolidation risks into early September. NATURAL GAS TECHNICALS: Price context trading in ~$2.70-$2.95 range amid storage surpluses and weather-driven volatility. Key Resistance Levels $2.912-$2.94 near-term/major resistance; 50-day MA area in several analyses; breakout target after recent moves above $2.85-$2.90. $2.99-$3.00 psychological and technical barrier; often cited as key upside test or cap. $3.06 next retracement/resistance zone target on stronger breakouts. ~$3.12 200-day EMA or moving average resistance (declining in some charts). Higher zones (less immediate) ~$3.20-$3.38 (prior swing highs or retracement areas from earlier 2026 trading). Key Support Levels $2.80-$2.90 (or tighter $2.87-$2.90 zone) high-volume congestion/support area; recent pivot and holding zone. ~$2.811-$2.816 SuperTrend or short-term technical support; potential retest level. $2.650-$2.67 near-term downside target on breaks. ~$2.616 cited technical floor/support for September futures. ~$2.576 major watched support; repeated defense noted in analyses. Lower targets (if broken) ~$2.50 or $2.30 (longer-term or extended downside zones). Additional context from recent charts/analyses Recent price action (late Aug 2026) showed breakouts above $2.85-$2.90 followed by tests near $2.99, with indecision in tight ranges. Moving averages (e.g., 50-day around $2.90-$2.95 range in spots, 200-day higher) often factor into these levels. Indicators like RSI/MACD often factor into these levels. Broader 2026 context includes supply glut keeping prices capped below $3 in many forecasts, with storage concerns weighing on upside. EIA PETROLEUM STATUS REPORT (Week Ending Aug 21, Released Aug 26, with revision dated Aug 28): U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excl. SPR) 428.9 million barrels (week ending Aug 21), up +0.1 million barrels (+95,000 barrels) WoW from 428.8 million (Aug 14). Year-over-year comparison (commercial crude, excl. SPR) +10.6 million barrels (+2.5%) vs. 418.3 million barrels on Aug 22, 2025. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) crude 289.7 million barrels, down -3.7 million barrels WoW from 293.4 million (and down sharply YoY from 404.2 million). Total U.S. crude oil stocks (incl. SPR) 718.6 million barrels (down -3.6 million WoW). Position vs. five-year average commercial crude inventories 1% above five-year average for time of year. Total petroleum stocks (incl. SPR) 1,535.1 million barrels (down -3.6 million WoW; down -127.8 million YoY). Total motor gasoline inventories 206.8 million barrels (down -2.5 million WoW; 6% below five-year average). Distillate fuel oil inventories 103.4 million barrels (down -2.2 million WoW; ~14% below five-year average). U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 17.4 million barrels per day (97.4% of operable capacity). U.S. crude oil production estimate 13.8 million barrels per day (up slightly WoW). Additional c...