GM40: The Risk of Volatility Exploding...Soon ft. Cem Karsan
Join us for an enlightening conversation with Cem Karsan, where we dive deep into the state of the volatility markets and the risks that come with the current low volatility environment. We explore the lagging effects of FED actions and their impact on the markets, as well as the potential impact of inflation, the upcoming US election season, and the current US debt ceiling situation. Get ready for a thought-provoking discussion on the current state of the markets and the challenges facing investors today.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 03:08 - The big picture macro view08:27 - Fed selling Puts and Calls12:54 - The lag effect20:31 - The impact of change in demographics29:49 - The state of the markets - Recession inbound?38:47 - Sticky CPI - What is causing it?46:12 - Is the FED causing uneccesary downturn?49:41 - Are we looking at the right Asset Class?52:26 - Is the equity rally about to end?54:24 - The Unpinning of Volatility57:40 - The coming Explosion of Volatility01:01:44 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the...
26 Apr 20231h 3min
SI240: Trend Following... More Than Just Vol Scaling? ft. Nick Baltas
Join us for a compelling conversation with Nick Baltas on the topic of trend following, where we explore the rising appetite for institutions to buy-the-dip in fixed income markets and how the SVB event has impacted liquidity. Discover if you can time trend following by adding additional signals to your model, the academic sceptisism of timeseries momentum as a strategy and why trend following goes beyond volatility scaling. We also delve into the scientific versus practical approach to trend following, and compare narratives of different investment approaches and how we may have to come up with a better one for trend following. Don't miss out on this insightful episode!-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Nick on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:02:21 - Looking back on the week13:19 - Reflecting on the CTA series19:23 - The impact of the SVB event23:02 - Industry performance update24:39 - Q1, Tim: Regarding backtest and timing trends35:08 - Two Critical Views on Trend Following40:15 - Time-series momentum: Is it there?43:28 - Defending trend following54:01 - The Role of Volatility...and what it predicts57:06 - The trend following narrative01:06:05 - Paper from Aspect Capital01:09:34 - Thanks for listeningResources discussed in this Episode:<a...
23 Apr 20231h 11min
IL16: False Narratives - A Path to a World of Conflict ft. Stephen Roach
Get ready for a thought-provoking conversation with Stephen Roach, former Chief Economist at Morgan Stanley and current Senior Fellow at Yale’s Paul Tsai China Center, as he delves into the deteriorating relationship between China and the US. With his new book "Accidental Conflict: America, China and the Clash of False Narratives", Stephen unravels the narratives that led to this new Cold War and provides a clear path towards interdependency and healthier economies. With his unique perspective and ability to reach policy makers on both sides, Stephen gives us an insight into the complexity of this relationship and how it can be mended. Don't miss out on this insightful discussion.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Stephen on Twitter & Read his Book.Episode TimeStamps: 02:38 - Introduction to Stephen Roach 07:37 - Why are false narratives so prevalent? 12:52 - Stephen's favorite false narrative 17:07 - A dangerous narrative 22:02 - A political backstep? 28:00 - A lack of telecom infrastructure 29:58 - The false narratives of China 40:47...
19 Apr 20231h 1min
TTU143: How to stay Sharpe ft. Guillaume Jamet, Co-CIO at Metori Capital Management
Guillaume Jamet, Co-CIO at Metori Capital Management joins us for a conversation on how pivoting to a rigorous scientific approach uncovered ways of better capturing trends in markets. We discuss his "alternative" view on Sharpe and why being a trend following CTA is not as easy as it might seem and how they break down conventional rules in markets to fix what is not working. We also uncover how Guillaume would approach manager selection if he was on the other side of the table and the pros and cons of trading alternative markets in China, how they make investors embrace trend following in their portfolio and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Learn more about Metori Capital Management.Episode Timestamps:02:17 - Introduction to Metori Capital Management 04:08 - Their investment philosophy 09:47 - An alternative view on Sharpe 18:44 - Adding value to a trend following program 21:08 - Signal filtering and embedding correlations 24:46 - The better technique and right timeframe 27:35 - Selecting and changing parameters 30:18 - Their view on replication 32:50 - Advice on evaluating and selecting managers 35:48 - Benefiting from alternative markets 39:30 - The risk of alternative markets 41:29 - Looking beyond China 42:18 -...
17 Apr 20231h 4min
SI239: CTAs Profits from Food Crisis...True or False? ft. Andrew Beer
Join us for a riveting conversation with Andrew Beer, where we dive deep into the world of systematic trend following, CTA Replication, and much more. As we explore the current state of central banks, we uncover the challenges that come with investing during periods when yields rise. Andrew shares his insights on why the language used in portfolio management can be misleading and what happens when we can't rely on banks being safe. Then we get into what has been going on in the world of CTA Replication and why Andrew is surprised by the DrawDowns that his fund has experienced in recent months. Finally, we debunk false narratives surrounding hedge funds profiting from the food crisis caused by the war in Ukraine and discuss the demonization of capitalism. Don't miss out on this captivating episode!-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Andrew on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:41 - What happened this week?11:46 - Industry performance update13:57 - Replication - reasons for concern?16:58 - Why the current drawdown exceeds that of the benchmark?23:51 - The challenge of making money when yields rise32:27 - Do Replication funds really out-perform over time?40:56 - The challenges of picking a single manager47:51 - Should you make changes to your model?53:29 - Gaurdian article on CTAs role in food crisis01:03:12 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're...
16 Apr 20231h 5min
GM39: The Secrets of a Natural Resource Speculator ft. Rick Rule
Join us for an insightful and personal conversation with Rick Rule, a renowned investor and speculator with decades of experience in sub $1,000,000,000 market capitalisation public and private issuers in natural resource industries. With a track record of structuring and leading numerous debt and equity issuances for resource companies worldwide, Mr. Rule shares his expertise on navigating the complexities of this unique market. As a sought-after speaker at investment conferences, he offers valuable insights into the natural resource industry's future and how to make informed investment decisions. In this episode, Mr. Rule discusses his personal investment philosophy as well as some of the wildest speculations that he has done in his career. Tune in for an engaging conversation with one of the industry's top experts.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Rick on Linkedin.Episode TimeStamps: 02:41 - Introduction to Rick Rule 04:16 - Financial experimentation and taking bets 16:35 - Commodities and the state of the economy 28:37 - Themes in resourcable markets 30:47 - Inflation - a political phenomenon? 38:57 - Are we seeing a change in ESGs? 44:26 - The pushback by the lower class 49:48 - Is owning gold becoming pointless? 56:14 - Central banks buying - a sign of demand? 01:00:40 - Finding...
12 Apr 20231h 21min
TTU142: The Contrarian ft. Roy Niederhoffer, President of R.G. Niederhoffer Capital Management
Buckle up for a fascinating conversation with Roy Niederhoffer, President of R.G. Niederhoffer Capital Management, as he shares insights on managing a billion USD through short-term trading. Discover why he's chosen this approach and how he's overcome its challenges. You'll also gain valuable insights on human biases surrounding the Sharpe Ratio, the impact of an inverted yield curve on longer-term trend following strategies, and why Roy "has PTSD" from investing in the stock market. Dive deep into the drivers of short-term trading and learn why thinking like a trader is key to successful research. Plus, Roy offers a cautionary note on the dangers of machine learning. Don't miss this illuminating conversation!-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Learn more about R.G. Niederhoffer Capital Management.Episode Timestamps:02:16 - Introduction to R.G. Niederhoff Capital Management03:46 - Their investment philosophy10:00 - A period of challenges13:26 - Believing in change15:45 - Who's Sharpe should we be concerned about?23:02 - Looking back in time30:42 - The role of short-term trading38:56 - What drives short-term trading?42:47 - Being smart with execution46:09 - Dealing with the downsides53:53 - Studying the markets55:49 - The dangers of machine...
10 Apr 20231h 9min
SI238: Why Not to Trend Follow ft. Rob Carver
Join us for an engaging conversation with Rob Carver, where we delve into the world of systematic trend following. We explore topics like how to forecast future market volatility and the pros and cons of using a Value at Risk methodology. We also discuss the benefits and drawbacks of tail risk hedging, and whether percentage or price differences are better for estimating standard deviation. As a surprise twist, we also explore the reasons why you should NOT be a trend follower. Tune in for a fun and thought-provoking discussion with Rob.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:40 - What happened since last time? 09:42 - Industry performance update 10:38 - Q1, Ricardo: When are you writing a book on backtesting with Python?13:28 - Q2, Bruno: How to best forecast volatility?20:49 - Q3, Skip: How is overall portfolio affected by not being pure trend? 25:41 - Libor Futures being replaced 30:41 - Blogpost about estimating standard deviation 38:01 - Article by Man-AHL on trend following performance following a sharp correction43:37 - Bloomberg article about tail risk hedging56:22 - Reasons Not to trend follow 01:09:50 - Thanks for listening Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics...
8 Apr 20231h 12min
