TTU15: Model Decay & How Best to Handle It ft. Karsten Schroeder of Amplitude Capital – 1of2

What are you going to do to differentiate yourself from everyone else in the industry?That’s the question Marty Bergin would ask the next guest on Top Traders Unplugged.Welcome back for the second part of our interview with, Marty Bergin.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:How trade decisions are generated and executed at DUNN Capital ManagementThe way Marty and DUNN manage the emotional challenges of trend followingWhy many CTA firms are giving allocations to long equities and the results of that decisionHow significant drawdowns help to make firms strongerDUNN Capital Management’s approach to researchHow DUNN Capital identifies and reacts to issues with external/strategic alliance situationsPortfolio development and decision-making at DUNN CapitalOn the importance for personal ownership in a CTA firmLearn about Michael Covel’s interview with Harry MarkowitzThe importance (or lack of) of being located in a large financial hubDUNN Capital’s investor focused fee structureWhy European CTA’s seem to be out growing the American firmsWhat does it take to become a great CTA in today’s environment-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Learn more about DUNN CapitalCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1....

3 Juli 201439min

Our next guest is a partner in a firm that has enjoyed 40+ years of trading success with a 35+ year continues track record of their WMA program.The track record of the organization, DUNN Capital Management, is world-class. The legendary Bill Dunn offered partnership to our next guest and he replied, “I’m happy with where I am.” Bill’s response will make you laugh.Please enjoy my conversation with, Marty Bergin.In This Episode, You’ll Learn:The Story of DUNN Capital and the Evolution of the firmHow Marty began working with the firm and how he became a partnerThe company culture of DUNN Capital and why it’s so important to their successAn overview of the DUNN WMA programHow the Value At Risk (VAR) approach separates DUNN Capital from other CTAsWhy DUNN Capital manages all tasks in-houseAbout the 40 year+ track record of DUNN CapitalThe big research upgrades taking place in 2006About the change to using two separate "Trend Following Models"About the adaptive risk profile (ARP)DUNN’s approach to diversification across sectors (for example; 23% in agriculture and 13% currency allocation)Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Learn about DUNN Capital’s methodologies and awards.Q&A with Bill DunnFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.Learn more about DUNN CapitalIT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.

29 Juni 201439min

Today we rejoin the conversation with Martin Estlander the Founder and CEO of Estlander & Partners. If you missed the first part, feel free to listen to it here.In this episode we explore the evolution of the CTA industry, the skills required to run a successful business and finally the fun, less known facts of Martin’s life outside of trading.Welcome to the second part of our conversations with Martin Estlander.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:The best rule of thumb to visualize risk in a traditional CTA portfolioWhat Martin has learned from being in drawdowns and the difference between drawdowns before and after 2009The effect of volatility in the markets and how this impact CTA performanceHow Martin Estlander manages the emotional roller coasterResearch processes and research cycles at Estlander & PartnersHow to identify and address systems that were working but now aren’tThe biggest challenge for Estlander & Partners going forwardWhat are investors not asking that they should be asking when choosing a CTAWhere the misunderstandings can happen for investors when trying to understand the CTA industryHow to become better at communicating with investorsMartin’s key traits to success in the CTA industryPersonal habits that have contributed to the success of Martin EstlanderHow Martin manages failures and improves from themThe things Martin would do differently if he started over today-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Learn about Commodities Corporation, the company behind some of the all-time great tradersFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/reviewttu" rel="noopener noreferrer"...

26 Juni 201449min

Estlander & Partners – The Oldest CTA firm in Scandinavia and one of the Longest Running CTA firms in the World. Thank you for listening to my conversation with its founder Martin Estlander. In This Episode, You’ll Learn:How Martin got involved in the CTA IndustryThe Evolution of Estlander & Partners and Where They are TodayFounding of an options trading business in Frankfurt in 1991About the inspiring time in which he was part of the Commodities Corp. team until 1998 when Goldman Sachs came in and bought CCAbout Jan Haraldsson’s Alpha Trend Program and how they recently opened the Program for external investorsThe recreational activities that support Martin’s trading philosophy. Skiing, Tennis, Sailing and MeditationAn overview of the Main Programs Estlander & Partners run today – Alpha Trend, Freedom, Global Markets & PrestoThe business organization of a modern day CTA firm – What is “in-house” and what is outsourcedHow volatility is perceived in the Estlander & Partners portfolioThe structure of the Alpha Trend Program and why it is designed to trade 74 different instruments and how they mix togetherHow Alpha Trend’s pattern recognition differs from the traditional moving average crossover or price breakoutWhether Alpha Trend is Intra-day, End-of-Day… or bothWhat Alpha Trends’ models are designed to captureHow Alpha Trend manages stop loss and stop profits when entering a new marketParticularly important key performance drivers of Alpha TrendThe human intervention required to run the Alpha Trend modelHow Martin Estlander defines riskAchilles Risk and how Alpha Trend manages for itResources & Links Mentioned in this Episode: Learn about Commodities Corporation, the company behind some of the all-time great tradersFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.Follow Estlander & Partners Linkedin.IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on <a href="https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/top-traders-unplugged-niels/id888420325?mt=2%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"

22 Juni 201449min

We’re back with the second part of our conversation with the Head of Research at Rho Asset Management. In this episode we discuss the details of Managing Equity Curves, Trade Length in CTA systems and how Rho achieves to get the optimal position size when entering new trades.Thank you for visiting, now let’s continue the interview with Tushar Chande.In This Episode, You’ll Learn:How Rho creates for algorithms to decide the size of a new positionThe difference between the models in terms of trade lengthThe trade frequency Rho Asset ManagementAbout the design philosophy in creating the profile of its Altius ProgramDiscussing the research cycle and the research reviewsMajor findings that led to the creation of the Altius ProgramWhy trend following systems make money over timeHow the CTA strategies will overcome challenges in the futureThe main thing investors should take away as a benefit of investing with CTAsFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.

12 Juni 201440min

On today’s show I am talking to Tushar Chande, Co-Founder and Head of Research at Rho Asset Management. Tushar is also the author of a number of books on the topic of how to design rule based trading systems as well as having been actively trading these systems for more than 20 years.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:Why the random nature of the markets attracted Tushar to develop systems for trading these marketsBackground information on Rho Asset Management and it’s philosophyHow Tushar utilizes behaviors of discretionary traders to make estimates of conviction about their individual tradesHow Rho has designed it’s Altius Program to offer meaningful protection when equity markets go downWhat to be aware of when exploring an Asset Manager’s performance over a 20 year periodOffense/Defense Ratio, What it means and How to use it to Measure the quality of systems designHow Rho’s models have been designed in order to achieve the overall objective of the ProgramWhat Trend Following Indicators are used for and whyExploring the volatility of the equity curveThe input data needed to run the Altius Program, the time it takes and when they run the model-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Beyond Technical Analysis by Dr. Tushar ChandeFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key...

9 Juni 201442min

In this episode we continue our conversation with the founder and CEO of Brandywine Asset Management and discuss the aspects of what makes his rule based asset management style so successful.Enjoy the second part of my conversation with, Mike Dever.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:Continuing the Conversation around why Trend Following can be more difficultDescribing Disparate Return DriversHow Brandywine Assets Management actually implements the decisions of their trading modelWhy Position Sizing and Risk Management Principles are EverythingHow position sizes are managed across various Return DriversWhy Sharpe Ratio is a meaningless measure on it’s own. It doesn’t give you any idea on predictability of returns.The professional traders approach to the emotional challenges of drawdown.Managing regulation challengesThe environment of marketing trend following strategies to investorsWhat it takes to become a great trader todayWho Mike started out aspiring to be likeIf Mike has any personal habits that contribute to his success-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Jackass Investing by Mike DeverLearn about Dick Donchian the Grandfather of Trend FollowingLearn about Poul Tudor Jones of Robin Hood FoundationLearn about John W. HenryFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or <a...

5 Juni 201444min

On today’s show I am talking to Mike Dever, the Founder and CEO of Brandywine Asset Management. Mike is a Divergent Thinking Systematic Investment Manager and Author of the best selling book “Jackass Investing”. Mike has been trading for almost 4 decades and shares a wealth of insight to how he has stayed successful and how his trading approach and research has stayed current in an ever changing financial landscape.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:The Evolution of Mike’s TradingHow Mike almost got in to business with Richard DonchianHow they developed a systematic trading model in the 1980sHow Mike met and invested with Paul Tudor Jones, John W. Henry and was the first outside investor in TranstrendHow Mike went from being a discretionary trader to become fully systematic when launching the Benchmark Program, and WhyAbout the experience of running the Brandywine Benchmark Program in in the ‘90sHow Mike discovered the importance of Portfolio Allocation in the 1980sThe Story of Developing the Predictive Diversification Portfolio Allocation ModelThe Entrepreneurial Storm that Kept Mike away from Trading and Brandywine for YearsThe story of developing the Brandywine Symphony ProgramHow many people it takes to run a system with more than 1,000 strategy/market combinationsExploring the track record of Brandywine Symphony ProgramWhy one should avoid making decisions based on single return drivers5 Themes in Brandywine’s Asset Allocation Strategy: Fundamental, Sentiment, Event, Arbitrage and Alpha HedgeHow Marginal Cost of Production Works as a Return DriverAre the strategies from the 1980’s just as effective today?What is directional arbitrage?-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Jackass Investing by Mike DeverLearn about Richard Donchian the Grandfather of Trend FollowingLearn about Poul Tudor Jones of Robin Hood FoundationLearn about John W. HenryFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/10-reasons-shownotes" rel="noopener noreferrer"...

2 Juni 201458min