TTU15: Model Decay & How Best to Handle It ft. Karsten Schroeder of Amplitude Capital – 1of2

Today, we are joined by Andrew Beer and Tim Pickering for a heated debate on some of the most important changes that we are seeing in the CTA industry. We discuss how ETFs can be used in the CTA industry and the pros and cons of using indices to represent manager performance, why Tim and Andrew are fundamentally different in how they approach the way retail investors can access CTA strategies and how they disagree on the definition of "pure alpha", the use of replication strategies and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Andrew on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:50 - The macro perspective03:56 - Industry performance update06:17 - First CTA to launch a ETF09:57 - The managed futures index - what and why?17:40 - Tim's experience with indices20:15 - Building an asset allocation bucket22:36 - A discussion on alpha30:58 - Getting exposure to CTA return streams37:10 - Why Tim would avoid replication strategies44:18 - The biggest positions drive performance?51:45 - Are ETFs reliable?55:47 - Getting the timing right01:00:49 - A terrible product?01:04:26 - Why did Tim's US ETF fail?01:08:07 - What is alpha?01:11:00 - Are lower fees better for investors?01:12:14 - Getting the correlation right01:13:21 - Question from Oliver01:15:59 -...

3 Juni 20231h 24min

Today we are joined by Clint Stone SVP of Investments at the Larry H Miller Company to hear about running an endowment style investment approach at a family office. We discuss Clint’s approach to asset allocation which is focused on long term capital appreciation. A key pillar of the portfolio is a large allocation to private markets and we discuss the rationals for this. We delve into the foundation’s approach to portfolio construction, how to estimate the volatility of private markets exposures and discuss Clint’s belief that the volatility of a private market portfolio may even be lower than a corresponding public market portfolio. We also talk about the challenge of manager selection, what Clint looks for in managers and why he likes both market neutral long/short equity strategies and directional strategies like global macro and trend following in his absolute return portfolio.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Clint on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:48 - Introduction to Clint Stone07:07 - Their approach to investment12:12 - A challenging decade for equities?15:06 - Stone's perspective on equity valuations18:32 - Building a model and strategy23:04 - Modelling the risk of a private equity portfolio30:52 - Getting the correlation right34:14 - Correlation in economic downturns39:04 - Building a multi-asset...

31 Maj 20231h 12min

Rob Carver is back to discuss the economic unpredictability that has defined this year so far and how Rob approaches backtesting his system, how to make a signal continuous in a discrete system and if there are ways to figuring out when is the right time to trend follow. We also unpack what Rob means by “you can’t eat sharpe ratio” and what he would change in his strategy if he had more resources available. We then turn to discuss the CTA industry and how to find out which CTA you should buy, why Niels is skeptical about predicting the performance of a strategy and why you need to know what you don’t know, the absurdity of the debt ceiling and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:52 - Update from Rob07:13 - Calculating slippage and "midprice"12:41 - Industry performance update15:26 - Q1, David: About continuous trading signal construction20:49 - Hidden Markov models - What and why?27:34 - Q2.1, Elie: Is there value in relative vol targeting for traders who can't take on leverage?32:37 - Q2.2, Elie: About alternative ways of rebalancing signals37:49 - Q3, QuantLurk: What would more resources do to your strategies?42:41 - Which CTA should you buy?49:12 - Can you really predict the performance of a strategy?56:08 - You need to know what you don't know58:36 - The U.S debt ceiling01:03:09 - Thanks...

27 Maj 20231h 5min

Join us for a thought-provoking conversation with David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research as we discuss the global macro outlook and why David believes the US economy is on the verge of recession. We examine the parallels between the current economic cycle and past cycles, particularly the 1920s and 1970s, and discuss how past Fed tightening cycles have played out for the economy and asset prices. David lays out his case for why he is sceptical of the narrative that inflation will remain sticky and outlines the key indicators he is monitoring that suggest that the US economy will soon be in recession. We discuss debt, demographics and deglobalization and whether these will inflationary or disinflationary forces over the coming decade.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow David on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 03:23 - Introduction to David Rosenberg08:00 - Rosenberg's research process11:56 - The importance of historical awareness25:00 - Disruptions in the demand curve31:16 - Getting the timing right43:54 - The longer term trajectory52:58 - Dealing with high debt levels57:12 - A shift in the political landscape01:00:56 - Learning more about global macro01:05:02 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever...

24 Maj 20231h 6min

Join us as we sit down with Brian Proctor, Managing Director at EMC Capital Advisors, for an insightful conversation on the evolution of their trading methodology since the early days of the Turtle Program. Discover what sets them apart from competitors and the key factors they believe contribute to a successful CTA. Explore their use of algorithms to balance risk in a volatile market and how trading systems can adapt while staying true to their origins. Gain insights into their approach to managing current market volatility, distinguishing between trend following and momentum, building reliable systems, expanding their market portfolio, and much more. Don't miss this engaging discussion!-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Learn more about EMC Capital Advisors.Episode Timestamps:02:19 - Introduction to EMC Capital Advisors07:30 - Their investment philosophy10:30 - What differentiates them from their peers?12:33 - The key to succes14:06 - Their approach to open equity17:22 - Staying true to trend following20:13 - Improving the risk adjusted profile23:15 - An evolving system28:19 - Slow or fast?30:44 - Being aware of volatility32:44 - Trend following vs. momentum37:19 - "The technical logic of the system"40:05 - An adaptive process43:58...

22 Maj 20231h 7min

Richard Brennan returns to discuss the idea of applying trend following on a shorter term time frame and why this might not make sense, the most optimal solutions for selecting managers, how to best avoid selection bias in the process and why the validated track record of a fund manager is so important. We also discuss how the analogy of hunting on the savana can be applied to trend following and what a cheetah and a spider can teach us about hunting trends and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:23 - Changes in the podcast format 01:30 - Review of the week 05:03 - Q1, Zach: Regarding the viability of short-term systems 12:48 - A deep dive into manager selection 28:37 - The optimal process and results 30:58 - Diversification in manager selection 33:51 - Hunting the trends 46:29 - The Knowledge Project 55:44 - Thanks for listening Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click...

20 Maj 202358min

If you're curious about the state of natural resources in today's market, this episode is for you. Our guest Adam Rozencwajg shares his insights on a wide range of topics when it comes to the global commodity markets. Discover why oil is struggling to surpass $80 despite the OIL Put, OPEC's surprise production cuts, and China's reopening. We also explore why US and European Nat Gas prices have yet to converge, and the outlook for Gold as it sits close to all-time highs. Finally, we discuss the future of base metals and what we can expect in the coming months. Don't miss out on this engaging episode!-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Adam on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:37 - What has happened since our previous conversation?06:03 - Making sense of the oil market10:44 - Signs of a put on the oil market16:38 - The situation with natural gas25:13 - Has the gas situation been improved?32:42 - Nuclear energy - is it a viable solution?46:51 - The outlook for gold52:51 - The mechanisms of the capital cycles01:00:45 - The state of metals01:04:18 - A metal crisis?01:06:24 - Centralised commodities and rare earths01:09:53 - Investing in rare earths01:12:52 - Considerations for owning gold01:16:58...

17 Maj 20231h 18min

Join us for a conversation with Cem Karsan, where we discuss the likelihood of the US economy going into stagflation and how we are at an interesting inflection point in terms of market risk as we head into the summer. We also get into how panic is akin to death in positioning and how artificial intelligence may affect us as investors. And finally we dig into Cem’s outlook for earnings and price and how passive investing can become uninvestable, things that would make Cem change his bearish view on the economy and markets, the underlying problems of debt in society and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:33 - What happened this week?06:56 - Industry performance update08:38 - An interesting inflection point16:29 - The timing of tops vs. bottoms21:25 - Why are people short today?25:57 - How will AI affect the middle and upper class?30:56 - Where are we at in the cycle?36:11 - Karsan's outlook for earnings39:25 - Passive vs. Active investing44:25 - Expectations for OPEX in May49:18 - What could change Karsan's bearish view?52:22 - The debt problem01:01:09 - A society in decline01:03:46 - Thoughts on Gold01:05:42 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can...

13 Maj 20231h 7min