TTU15: Model Decay & How Best to Handle It ft. Karsten Schroeder of Amplitude Capital – 1of2

Today, Niels and Rob are joined by Nick Baltas, Managing Director at Goldman Sachs, for a conversation on systematic investment strategies. We discuss the difference between a number of systematic trading strategies and the pros and cons of each, how crowding impacts systematic investing and how the narrative created by media affects the systematic investment space, the capacity constraints for CTAs and the impact of costs. We also discuss how big an impact the trend following community has on the markets and the strength and weaknesses of different alternative markets, selective hedging and how skew can be used as a predictor of future returns. Lastly, we discuss the challenging environment of 2022 and why Trend is performing so well this year, why Trend Following is becoming an essential part of every portfolio and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Follow Nick on LinkedIn.Episode Timestamps:00:00 - Intro03:16 - Introduction to Nick Baltas05:59 - Baltas’ findings from comparing different systematic trading strategies12:10 - Is the CTA industry too small to have an impact?16:44 - Blame it on the trend following people21:42 - Baltas’ research on capacity30:03 - The impact of trend37:54 - Pros and cons between different alternative markets46:10 - Using skew in your strategy52:57...

9 Nov 20221h 13min

Today, Rob Carver joins us for our weekly conversation on Trend Following, where we also address this week's press conference held by Chairman Powell. We discuss the most optimal time period for trend following and how trend following differ from short-term trading. Then we explain the challenges in the UCITS space and how regulation affects these products, and why it is important to correctly distinguish asset classes and trading strategies from each other. We also discuss Rob’s approach to building mean reversion systems, the importance of analyzing trading costs and if it is worth learning how to trade futures, if you have a small account. Lastly, we discuss hedge fund replication and how Rob approaches it, and how to decide, how much you should allocate to Trend Following and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro02:58 - The biggest takeaways from the week?11:36 - Industry performance update13:27 - Status on Rob’s book14:38 - Q1, Simon: What is the shortest term that Rob has looked at in trend following / momentum?25:26 - Q2, Matthew: Relationship between UCITS funds's lower vol and Trend Following allocation? & Advice for small investors32:20 - Comment, Mark: Confusing asset classes and trading strategies39:22 - Q3, Toby: About building mean reversing systems40:58 - Q4, Zach: How to approach holding periods and rolling costs?43:22 - Q5, Anis: Cash...

6 Nov 20221h 9min

Today, we are joined by William White, Economist, Policy Advisor and Policy Maker who worked at the OECD, BIS & Bank of Canada, for a conversation on monetary policy and how it can negatively impact the economy. We discuss the unintended consequences of ultra-easy monetary policies, what has caused the current rebound in inflation and why we have gone from price stability to specific inflation rate targeting. We also discuss how Central Banks have handled inflation and supply shocks, both historically and recently, through monetary policies, how the current debt problem poses a threat to the economy and how it might be solved, the psychological perspective behind economical theory and why the financial conditions might have been too easy, financial and physical dominance and why they are not good for a non inflationary future. Lastly, we discuss the crisis from a European perspective, why the Dollar might not be stable in a future crisis and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow William White.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro03:12 - Introduction to William White04:38 - Discussing White’s paper about monetary policies10:32 - What has driven the inflation to this point?23:05 - Inflation targeting - a great succes? 33:18 - Are we seeing the right policy?40:33 - The debt problem52:24 - Has central bank credibility been...

2 Nov 20221h 27min

Today, Alan Dunne joins us for a weekly dose of Trend Following where we reflect on an eventful week, with Elon Musk taking over Twitter, the META stock taking a big hit and much more. We discuss how to approach asset allocation when adding trend following to your portfolio, how to find the optimal allocation and why Trend Following is often the most consistent part of the portfolio. We also discuss why it is important to think about forward looking risks and the idea that we are moving into a new era and regime, the unpredictability of the current inflation and why the rule-based strategies will have the upper hand as well as reflecting on next week’s episode with William White and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro01:58 - Summary of the week07:51 - Industry performance update15:38 - The optimal allocation24:42 - Trend Following is the most consistent part of the Portfolio? 37:22 - Are we moving into a new era?47:37 - Reflecting on the upcoming conversation with William White52:29 - Unforeseen consequences of QE55:40 - Thanks for listeningResources discussed in this Episode:LINK: GIC-ThinkSpace-Building-Balanced-Portfolios-for-the-Long-Run.pdf<a...

29 Okt 202257min

Today, we have the pleasure of having Adam Rozencwajg back for another conversation on the global energy crisis, this time primarily focusing on the demand side of the crisis. We discuss oil reserves, OPEC and how disruptions in supplies impact the energy sector, why we are seeing a spike in demand for oil and how investors are changing their trading behaviour to adapt to the crisis, the impact of the rise of the emerging market middle class and the challenges of structural inflation. We also address how the war between Russia and Ukraine affects the energy crisis and how some conspiracy theorists believe that all this conflict is tied together, how the energy crisis affects the American Mid-Term Election and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Adam on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro02:06 - The highlights of the previous conversation on energy supply13:02 - Adam’s perspective on the demand side21:57 - Blame it on the inflation?29:11 - The opportunities of a divided world36:50 - Has demand actually decreased? 42:40 - What can go wrong in regards to the election?51:00 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you...

26 Okt 202252min

Today, Cem Karsan joins us for our weekly conversation on Trend Following as well as Volatility, following yet another fast paced and eventful week. We discuss the challenges of being long volatility in the current environment and how under-performing equity stock market volatility is the new normal, the increased popularity of volatility strategies post 2018 and 2020 and different ways of knowing how the strategies may behave in an inflationary environment. We also discuss concerning liquidity conditions and what has caused the current situation, what investors should prioritize, in terms of allocation, to protect their portfolio, how the increase in strength of the U.S. Dollar affects the markets, how investors and pension funds act when inflation is sky rocketing and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro01:28 - What happened this week?08:37 - Industry performance update10:30 - Discussing an article from EQD18:49 - Going into unknown territory23:55 - Is liquidity becoming a problem?35:26 - Volatility strategies vs. Trend Following43:15 - The strength of the U.S. Dollar51:26 - Alternative markets... could liquidity be drying out? 56:35 - What happens when inflation is so high?01:01:48 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help...

22 Okt 20221h 3min

Richard Duncan, Economist and best-selling Author, joins us for a conversation on new ways of thinking about economic growth and prosperity. We discuss the historical aspects of growth and how credit creation and consumption generate economic growth, how foreign central banks create credit and how it has created an economic bubble in the American economy, how the U.S. economy has become addicted to credit growth and how the combination of a negative wealth effect and credit contraction poses a threat to the economy. We also the discuss the importance of the CHIPS and Science Act, how China could become the new superpower of the world and what the U.S. can do to prevent it, what a multi trillion dollar investment could mean for the American economy and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Richard on Twitter & read his book.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro04:29 - Introduction to Richard Duncan and his book15:35 - Credit creation and consumption - a long term growth strategy?22:54 - The problems with foreign central bank credit31:45 - Reflecting on Alan Greenspan’s response34:02 - Addicted

18 Okt 20221h 9min

Today, we are joined by Andrew Beer, Managing Member at Dynamic Beta Investments LLC, for a conversation on managed futures replication, ETFs and how they have found a way to get these essential strategies into more investor portfolios. We discuss how they do they have constructed the replication strategies and how Andrew have been able to gain enormous traction among advisers. We also touch on why Andrew does not include crypto and how the price of ETF is established. We take lots of questions and round our conversation off by discussing why managed futures have become an essential part of a portfolio and why Andrew believe that the demand for the strategy will continue to be strong for years to come and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Andrew on TwitterEpisode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro01:57 - This week in Trend Following?06:38 - Industry performance update08:34 - A bit of background to Andrew and his work15:12 - The mechanics of their replication strategy20:20 - Getting correlation right...is that enough?34:25 - What about flat periods?41:19 - What is the hardest part of what you do?44:29 - Q1, Brian: Is there any tax advantages to your product?46:01 - Q2, Jerry: What does your investor base look like?53:19 - Are cryptocurrencies part of your universe?57:16 - Q3, Jerry: How is the price of the ETF made up?59:24 - Q4, Mike: Will capacity become an issue at a certain level

16 Okt 20221h 50min