TTU15: Model Decay & How Best to Handle It ft. Karsten Schroeder of Amplitude Capital – 1of2

Today we continue our interview with Andreas Clenow, where we cover topics such as backtesting & system design, whether we see any growth in the CTA industry, long-term vs short-term Investing, and how to go about raising initial AUM. Questions include: How important are drawdowns when analysing performance? Is Crisis Alpha an appropriate label for CTAs today? How do you choose parameters for your Trading Models?-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:54 – Niels; Question One: How does one go about choosing parameters for their Trading models? Question Two: Do you stick with your model, or do you look to recalibrate it over time?07:37 – Jerry; Question Two: Have you noticed that longer-term systems have always produced better results than shorter-term, even though we may think otherwise? How important are drawdowns when analysing performance?13:48 – Moritz; Question One: Would you still go out and start a Trend Following fund today? If so, how would you go out and raise the initial AUM?16:25 – Niels; Question Two: How should CTAs & Trend Followers present themselves? Is Crisis Alpha an appropriate label?22:32 – Niels; Question Three: If you could invite 4 people to dinner, from past or present, who would you choose?24:00 – Niels; Question Four: Anything you would like to share regarding your latest book?26:23 – Brian; Question One: Do you think Options strategies distort Trends and the performance of Trend Following strategies?27:08 – Benchmark performance updateCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in...

14 Jan 202029min

In this first episode of 2020, we discuss whether there any investment strategies that can work during all times, the recent Barron’s article featuring Richard Thaler on the perils of overconfidence, how Trend Following helps to prevent being too confident, the inherent negativity bias within most investors, the drawbacks of positivity when investing, and why you should consider the costs of being too cautious just as much as the costs of taking on too much risk. Questions covered this week include: Are CTAs becoming too cautious? Is it really worth diversifying away from developed markets? What causes you to make adjustments to your models?-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:09 – Macro recap from Niels14:06 – Weekly review of performance19:18 – Top tweets49:01 – Question 1: Sam; Is it worth diversifying away from developed markets?55:22 – Question 2: Edmund; Can you recommend any detailed backtesting software with the ability to test variable position sizes?58:12 – Question 3: Drew; What causes you to make adjustments to your models?01:06:14 – Question 4: Sebastian; Why is it so hard to be a successful Trend Follower, when it seems we as Humans innately like to follow trends anyway (ie. fashion, social media, tech)?01:12:39 – Benchmark performance update01:14:16 – Send your questions in for our upcoming special guest, Andreas ClenowCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries...

4 Jan 20201h 16min

In this week’s episode, we discuss the notion of correlation between volatility and risk, why it can be a bad idea to equate a manager’s performance with their skill-level, when a losing trade should still be considered a good trade, how much opportunity is in Low-Volatility Targeting strategies, and we also give our end-of-year reviews. Questions answered this week include: Is Trend Following another form of price prediction? Do you follow the weekly Commitments of Traders report? Can you can you make money in the markets without the need for predictions?-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro00:55 – Macro recap from Niels03:10 – Weekly review of performance18:41 – Top tweets43:29 – Question 1: Woody; Is Trend Following another form of predicting price moves?01:00:18 – Question 2 William; Do you follow the weekly COT (Commitments of Traders) report?01:05:02 – Benchmark performance update01:08:52 – End of year recap01:19:32 – Top tweets (cont.)01:20:59 – Thank you to our listeners in 2019Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. <a...

29 Dec 20191h 23min

This week, we touch on the difference a year makes, how good position sizing can reduce anxiety, the recent article from AQR by Cliff Asness, why a meaningful allocation to Trend Following might be considered a must for any portfolio, the psychology of prediction, and some of the drawbacks of Trading from chart patterns. Questions we cover this week include: Would CTAs want to publish their returns to investors less frequently? Does history always ‘rhyme’? Is the Fibonacci sequence a reliable indicator? How do you differentiate Trend Following from a typical Long Volatility strategy?-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:37 – Macro recap from Niels03:10 – Weekly review of performance11:55 – Top tweets (starting with tweet about recent Cliff Asness article from AQR)50:48 – Announcement of future podcast guest, Andreas Clenow, in January 202053:47 – Question 1: Mike; How would you differentiate Trend Following from a typical Long-Volatility strategy?57:50 – Question 2 Drew; Does the strategy of buying into a Trend Following fund during its drawdowns count as a form of Value Investing, and therefore, hypocritical to Trend Following philosophy?01:03:37 – Benchmark performance updateCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about...

23 Dec 20191h 6min

In this week’s episode, find out why investing in a strategy during a drawdown can be profitable in the long-run, why risk-adjusted performance is more important than tracking against an index, why price is a better guide than expert opinion, if there is a time when you shouldn’t attempt to have uncorrelated securities in your portfolio, and the connections between Trading, statistics, & sports.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:21 – Macro recap from Niels02:57 – Weekly review of performance06:12 – Top tweets50:48 – Announcement of podcast guest, Andreas Clenow, in January 202051:23 – Question 1: Drew; Should you enter a breakout trade based on an intra-day signal or end of day signal?56:26 – Benchmark performance updateCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good...

15 Dec 201958min

This week, we discuss how doing less can ensure bigger & better results over time, average client holding periods versus the recommended amount of time, why short trades might be the essential part of a winning system, and why uniqueness is now a key requirement for today’s emerging managers. Questions we cover this week include: How far should your backtest go? Can emerging Hedge Fund managers still succeed in today’s environment? Should you adjust past data for volatility?-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:21 – Macro recap from Niels04:11 – Weekly review of performance07:27 – Top tweets51:16 – Questions 1: Dane; How far should your backtest go?54:38 – Question 2: Neal; Do you have a minimum average daily volume when trading stocks?56:24 – Questions 3/4: James; When using multiple entry signals, do you also use multiple exit signals? When setting up systems & doing testing, should you adjust past data for intended volatility-weighted position sizing? Can emerging managers within the hedge fund space still succeed, among pressure for low fees, the cost of running business, & the popularity of indexing?01:05:18 – Benchmark performance updateCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. <a...

9 Dec 20191h 9min

This week, we discuss the differences between recognising risk and ‘warehousing’ risk, why Fundamental Investors could benefit from implementing Trend Following rules, Diversification as the most important component of risk management, what Traders can learn from Weightlifters, and the delicate balancing act between simple, simplicity, & complexity. Questions we answer this week include: Is Systematic Investing a form of betting? How do you define a Trend? Should you scale into positions?-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:11 – Origins of Black Friday02:43 – Weekly review of performance11:45 – Top tweets40:52 – Questions 1/2: Michael; Can the number of trades a system signals, give insight as to how well optimized the system is? Is there a guideline for the number of trades a system should be signalling, for each chosen timeframe (such as Daily/Weekly)?45:34 – Question 3: Richard; Comment- ‘No deterioration in the overall compound growth-rate of long-term Diversified Systematic Funds, post-2000.’46:53 – Questions 4/5: Bing; Why don’t we risk more per trade? Is trader psychology the main reason for the importance placed on position sizing?53:21 – Question 6: Jacob; Can you give examples of strategies that ‘warehouse’ risk?56:41 – Question 7: Nathan; How do we define the parameters of a Trend?01:01:37 – Question 8: Chad; Do you scale into a position, or go straight to the chosen max risk of equity per security?01:05:51 – Questions 9/10:...

2 Dec 20191h 15min

Is the concept of being a great stock picker overrated? Are Trend Following returns mean-reverting over time? Will Sharpe Ratios of Trend Following strategies permanently stay lower from now on? Is it becoming harder to be a successful discretionary macro trader? Should you use the same stop-loss for every position? We also give our thoughts on the process of adding a new market to your Trading Universe, ATR and how to apply it to your strategies, when a visit from the SEC can be taken as a compliment, why pain and suffering can sometimes be a necessary component of profitable Trend Following, Louis Bacon deciding to close down his funds, and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro00:57 – Macro recap from Niels01:55 – Weekly review of performance08:22 – Top tweets46:30 – Questions 1/2: Derek; How do you adapt Trend Following models for a constrained universe of markets? How do you educate fundamental Traders about quant investing?53:31 – Questions 3/4/5: Jonathan; Does having a 5000 sample size backtest apply to each market in each system? Do you use out-of-sample testing? Do you optimize using multiple time-periods?01:00:37 – Questions 6/7: Indrius; How do you use ATR? Do you take less risk per market as you trade more positions?01:04:22 – Question 8/9: Brian; How many other Trend Following managers should you invest in? How would you seek out other managers to invest in?01:12:13 – Question 10: Maurici; Do you use the same stop-loss for every...

24 Nov 20191h 27min