SI55: Aligning your investments with the best odds and why the Sharpe needs salt
In this week’s episode, we discuss why Sharpe Ratios should be taken with a pinch of salt, the benefits of using a Trading Coach, why consistently aligning with the best odds may be a better strategy than trying to predict future price moves, DUNN Capital’s recent award from HedgeWeek magazine, why ‘the standout hedge fund traders this year have been computer-driven Trend-Followers’, and why Risk Management is more important than strategy or philosophy. Questions answered this week include: Why are commodities seen as more risky than equities? Can you use Options in a Trend Following strategy? Should you keep your stop-loss proportionately the same across different time-frames? Are there any markets to be avoided by new managers?-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.-----Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:05 – Reading of various podcast reviews03:00 – Macro recap from Niels06:20 – Weekly review of performance10:15 – Discussion of Mercer Trend Following paper18:15 – Live event update 10/26/19-10/27/19; Special Guest: Denise Shull20:35 – Top tweets36:10 – Questions 1/2/3: Eric; Do you hedge with OTM options? Can you use options to trade trends? Will HFT algos negatively impact TF systems?41:40 – Question 4: Sam; Should stop distance (ATR multiple) adjust with the trend speed?47:50 – Question 5: Noobe; Are there any contracts a new manager should avoid?54:20 – Question 6: Clay; With minimal trading activity, what do TF do all day?01:00:50 – Question 7: Giangitano; Should...
29 Sep 20191h 14min
TTU110: The Opportunity of Volatility ft. Alan Sheen of Dalton Street Capital – 1of2
Today on Top Traders Unplugged, I’m speaking with Alan Sheen, Founder and CIO of Dalton Street Capital. Alan has an interesting background in science and engineering, and also spent time in the military, which allowed him to later thrive in rules-based investing. He’s also the first Australian manager to be on the podcast. Listen in to today’s episode to learn about Alan’s journey from the Australian military to starting his own investment firm, why investors should look at volatility not as risk but as an opportunity, and what an investor’s own personal car says about their investment strategies.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:What Alan’s childhood was like in AustraliaWhy Alan studied aeronautical engineeringHow Alan equates gas-turbine engines with robust investingHow Alan’s experience in the military helps him as an investorHow Alan was influenced by Darwin’s “The Origin of the Species”Quantitative investment’s prevalence in Australia in the early ’90sThe influence the VIX Index had on Alan’s careerHow Alan’s hedging strategy turned into a managed futures strategyWhy Alan use an equity portfolio as collateral instead of cashHow volatility can be opportunity and a friendHow Berkshire Hathaway has benefited from a volatile marketThe importance of an investment manager to personalize their hedge funds-----Links Mentioned:Sensation Seeking and Hedge FundsFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on <a href="https://my.captivate.fm/@HESTASuper" rel="noopener noreferrer"...
25 Sep 201939min
SI54: Why NOT losing money is more important than missing opportunities
In this episode, we discuss Howard Mark’s comments regarding not losing money being more important than missing opportunities, how solid Trend Following performance can often stay on the edge of randomness, recent opposing comments from the AHL founders on the effectiveness of Trend Following in today’s markets, why complexity and complication might actually be different from one another, and we also touch on a white paper which points out an increased inaccuracy with backtests the more complex a system gets. Questions answered this week include: How easy is Trend Following to carry out? Are funds today charging too much in fees? Is there a way to accurately predict future price moves? Daniel Crosby mentioned in a recent Top Traders Unplugged interview, that ‘the best investments were the ones that were left alone’, what do we think about that statement? How do we keep our cool around friends & family after a very bad week in the markets? Do clients have a wide & varied attitude toward portfolio volatility?-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:00 – Weekly recap from Niels04:10 – Weekly review of performance09:00 – Top tweets39:00 – Question 1: Francois; How do you stay cool after a bad week trading?48:30 – Question 2: Adrian; What is the optimal level of trading activity in a robust system?52:20 – Question 3: James; Should CTAs offer the same program with different vol targets?01:02:00 – Question 4: James; Is Jerry trading individual stocks or a basket of...
22 Sep 20191h 9min
RT27: Why Emotion overrides cognition...dramatically ft. Daniel Crosby – 2of2
On today’s episode, Niels continues his conversation with Dr. Daniel Crosby, Chief Behavior Officer of Brinker Capital, and the host of The Standard Deviation Podcast. Niels and Daniel discuss how emotion affects investment decision-making, the problem with financial media, and what investors can do to correct their bad investment behavior.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:The key points of dealing with emotion as an investorWhy rules are better than goalsDaniel’s Four “C”s of investingThe importance of rule-following for investment managersWhat is the role of clarity in investingWhy an overabundance of data can be detrimental to decision-makingThe role of courageousness in investmentsWhy process over outcome is importantWhy volatility is not the same as risk-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Daniel on Twitter.Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend...
18 Sep 201937min
SI53: Why most successful Hedge Funds employ Systematic strategies
In today’s episode, we discuss if it’s possible to successfully blur the lines between Discretionary & Systematic Trading, why most of the largest Hedge Funds in the world are Systematic, results of the rolling 10-year returns of Trend Following versus the S&P 500, how diversification can prevent long drawdown periods, why forming an opinion on your stock position can negatively affect how you manage the trade, and we also explain some of the differences between Cash Contracts and Continuous Contracts. Questions answered this week include: Should you beware of high win percentages? Are large drawdowns a normal part of Trend Following? What are the largest up or down moves we’ve ever experienced?-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:05 – Macro recap from Niels05:50 – Weekly review of performance14:55 – Live event update 10/26/19-10/27/1915:20 – Top tweets45:40 – Question 1: Sam; What are the biggest performance moves (up/down) in your career?54:40 – Question 2: Sam; Why do some trade long-only (versus long-short)?57:45- Questions 3/4: Bruno; What do you think about using cash versus futures to calculate trends/create systems? Is there a way to value a commodity?01:04:40 – Benchmark performance update01:05:50 – Final thoughtsCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that...
16 Sep 20191h 10min
MacroVoices: Niels Kaastrup-Larsen on Algorithmic Trading & Trend Following
The tables have turned! In this episode, Niels Kaastrup-Larsen becomes the first featured guest on Erik Townsend’s newest podcast – MacroVoices Spotlight! In this episode, Niels and Erik discuss Trend Following, the history of the Turtle Traders, Benefits of de-correlation and conditional correlation, how CTAs have been performing, and much more.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
13 Sep 201959min
RT26: Overcoming behavioural biases ft. Daniel Crosby – 1of2
On today’s episode, Niels Kaastrup-Larsen speaks with Dr. Daniel Crosby, Chief Behavior Officer of Brinker Capital, and the host of The Standard Deviation Podcast. Dr. Crosby came to investment management through clinical psychology and therefore has a unique perspective on behavioral economics. The discussion ranges from how human behavior is evolutionarily ill-equipped for investment management, the importance of having rules for investing during turbulent times, and what investors can do to modify their behavior for success.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:What makes Daniel’s background rare in investment managementHow the eradication of Guinea Worm is relevant to investing behaviorWhy the evolution of human behavior is antithetical to investingHow being a quantitative investor is beneficial to overcoming bad behavioral economicsThe correlation between activity and success in the marketsWhat are the building blocks of behavioral financeWhy “I don’t know” is the most under-appreciated phrase in investingThe role of conservatism in behavioral economics-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Daniel on Twitter.Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. <a...
12 Sep 201931min
SI52: Working with legendary Paul Tudor Jones ft. Peter Borish
In our special Anniversary Edition of the Systematic Investor Podcast, we invite Peter Borish onto the show to discuss the differences between Discretionary and Systematic Investing, Peter’s journey from the New York Federal Reserve to his role at Quad Group, his experience working with Paul Tudor Jones, his opinion on the CTA industry and its current approach to attracting capital, the benefits of having solid business partners during the best and worst of times, the power of Market Cycles, how perception rather reality can affect a client’s judgement, the effectiveness of Trading coaches, and we also get Peter’s opinions on the current state of the markets. We asked Peter many questions this week, including: Where do you draw the line between normal drawdowns, and feeling compelled to change your models? How do you best explain the benefits of a Rules-Based Trading approach to potential clients? What does Quad Group do, and how difficult is it to find new talent? Can the collapse of Passive Index Funds be the main driver behind the next recession?-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:20- Weekly review of performance05:30 – Voicemail from Jim07:20 – Peter Borish journey11:10 – Moritz: What sparked your interest in trading?12:50 – Jerry: What are your opinions on me/CTAs and the evolution/future of the industry?18:00 – Niels: Can you comment on Tony Robbins coaching Paul Tudor Jones?22:20 – Niels: Do systematic traders need coaches?29:40 – Moritz: How do you balance sticking to a system vs...
10 Sep 20191h 21min
