SI360: The Fed, the Fiction, and the Fight for Control ft. Alan Dunne
When official data starts serving politics, markets lose their anchor. Alan Dunne and Niels examine the quiet shift unfolding as the U.S. edges closer to emerging market behavior - firing statisticians, sidelining inconvenient numbers, and pressuring the Fed ahead of a consequential leadership reshuffle. With labor supply falling, growth stalling, and tariffs acting as stealth taxes, the Fed’s playbook no longer fits the moment. Behind the scenes, hedge fund power brokers position themselves to shape what comes next. Plus, an unvarnished look at trend following’s drawdown, the lazy critiques making the rounds, and why so many allocators still miss the point.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:32 - What has caught our attention recently?08:53 - Dunne's global macro overview13:31 - Is our understanding of growth and GDP outdated?17:52 - The Fed is under threat from multiple angles21:38 - Dunne's impression of Kevin Warsh as a candidate for Fed chairman26:43 - An odd juxtaposition with hedge fund titans' influences on the Fed32:35 - Industry performance update37:30 - Our takeaways from The Wall Street Journal's article on Trend Following43:35 - Why should investors even consider managed futures in the first place?45:40 - Has Dunne ever been on the verge of cutting trend?52:08 - Do long term investors really need diversifiers?Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All...
9 Aug 1h 5min
IL40: Why the Economy Feels Broken... Even When It’s Growing ft. Diane Coyle
What if our most trusted economic statistic is pointing us in the wrong direction? Diane Coyle joins Kevin Coldiron to explore why GDP - long treated as a proxy for progress - now obscures more than it reveals. As economies shift toward services, intangibles, and unpaid digital labor, much of today’s value creation falls outside the frame. Drawing on her new book, The Measure of Progress, Coyle makes the case for a new way of seeing - one that captures time, trust, and the real foundations of growth. The question isn’t how fast we’re moving. It’s whether we’re measuring the right road.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Diane on X and read her book.Episode TimeStamps: 02:19 - Introduction to Diane Coyle03:55 - How did the current systems of national accounts came to be?06:55 - Why the national statistics doesn't add up11:22 - The underlying problems of GDP18:42 - How software pose a problem for measuring GDP and economic activity23:25 - The challenges of cloud computing26:39 - What is disintermediation and why is it a problem for economic...
6 Aug 56min
SI359: Trend Following in a World That Loves Bubbles ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Mark Rzepczynski joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen for a conversation shaped by tension between surface calm and deeper dislocation. From copper’s sudden collapse to signs of stress in liquidity and leverage, they explore how market behavior is increasingly defined by fragility, not fundamentals. With Fed policy boxed in, equity optimism rising, and stablecoins quietly redrawing the contours of the monetary system, the challenge for investors isn’t prediction - it’s positioning. They also confront the limits of complexity in models and why, in uncertain regimes, the discipline of doing less may offer the most resilience. This is trend following in context.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:15 - What has caught our attention recently?09:08 - The tough situation of Fed independence10:43 - Industry performance update14:27 - Mark's analysis of the current trend following performance21:01 - Are we picking up long term inflation trends?23:04 - 2025 has given us something rare26:05 - The core problem that trend followers face today36:42 - The evolution of stablecoins43:52 - The definition of financial bubbles is becoming diluted53:11 - Risk - a feeling or a factor?58:42 - The seductiveness of complexity01:01:10 - Key observations from our conversation01:07:17 - What is up for next week?Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All
2 Aug 1h 8min
GM85: What If the Real Risk Isn’t Recession — But Reinvention? ft. Steven Bell
Steven Bell has seen the macro machine from every angle - Treasury insider, hedge fund manager, and chief economist. In this wide-ranging conversation with Alan Dunne, he traces the quiet erosion of economic orthodoxy and why AI, not tariffs, may prove the more destabilizing force. Bell explains how Fed independence is fraying, why wage dynamics matter more than headline inflation, and what investors miss when they over-index on models. With stories from trading floors and policy rooms alike, this episode captures a rare perspective: someone who’s watched markets evolve, not just from charts, but from inside the decisions that moved them.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Steven on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:20 - Introduction to Steven Bell05:37 - Has the challenge of forecasting economics changed?10:27 - Was it easier to be a money manager back in the days?13:11 - Is emotion and hysteria taking over markets?16:48 - Tariffs disappearing? Forget it21:41 - The economic impact of the recent CPI data24:38 - How tariffs will impact workers and productivity28:54 - Bell's outlook for inflation32:15 - Do deficits even matter?36:51 - How messy will the Fed's handling of inflation be?44:16 - Who is a likely replacement for Powell?45:11 -
30 Juli 1h 7min
SI358: Why the Best Trend Models Might Be the Simplest Ones ft. Tom Wrobel & Andrew Beer
Andrew Beer and Tom Wroble return to join Niels Kaastrup-Larsen for a timely examination of how trend following is adapting, and why some say it may be losing its edge. Tom unpacks new research showing a quiet drift toward slower models, raising the question of whether CTAs are evolving or converging. Andrew pushes back on the prevailing wisdom around diversification, suggesting that complexity often obscures cost rather than delivering true value. From shifting model speeds to the incentives shaping manager behavior, this is a conversation about what trend following is becoming... and what investors risk overlooking as some strategies grow more complex in pursuit of outperformance.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Andrew on Twitter.Follow Tom on LinkedIn,Episode TimeStamps: 01:52 - What has caught our attention recently?06:11 - Industry performance update07:44 - Wrobel's perspective on the current CTA environment09:32 - Key findings from Wrobel's recent paper14:51 - The shape is key for managing risk17:26 - How changes in the underlying managers affect replication strategies22:10 - Is there such a thing as a happy "medium" in trading speed?28:09 - Are replication strategies less challenged when selecting markets?33:35 - The structure of an allocator36:12 - How much tracking error is acceptable in...
26 Juli 1h 13min
TTU150: Scarcity, Security, and the Shift to Soil ft. Artem Milinchuk
What happens when an overlooked asset becomes essential? Artem Milinchuk returns to share how farmland, long seen as niche... is quietly stepping into the center of long-term portfolios. He and Niels discuss what’s changed since 2020: rising inflation, tighter capital, a demographic handoff reshaping land ownership, and how tech is altering both the economics and culture of agriculture. This isn’t about chasing yield. It’s about owning what endures. From almonds to avocados, tariffs to treasuries, and legacy to liquidity, this episode offers a clear-eyed look at an asset class rooted in necessity, and poised for relevance.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Artem on X.Check out these resources about farmland investingEpisode Timestamps:02:24 - A recap on our previous conversation06:22 - What has changed about their strategy since our last conversation (in 2020)?10:28 - How does farmland investing actually generate income?12:32 - How does farmland investing work and operate?15:28 - Geopolitical volatility - How FarmTogether deals with tariffs19:00 - How different types of crops carries different types of risk23:22 - A deep dive into the volatility behind farmland investing27:40 - What is a fair level of volatility to expect from farmland investing?30:49 - The tech side of agriculture - where are we heading?33:58 - Major changes in...
23 Juli 1h 6min
SI357: Liquidity, Leverage, and the Lie of Calm ft. Cem Karsan
As summer sets in, Cem Karsan joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to trace the contours of a market that feels calm but isn’t. What looks like low vol masks a crowded hedge fund ecosystem and a structural vol compression regime few understand. From a VIX spike driven by unexpected Call activity to the slow-motion political pressure on Powell, the signals are subtle but mounting. They cover China’s resource diplomacy, AI’s quiet dislocation of white-collar work, and the rising fragility from concentration across assets, brokers, and narratives. This is a conversation about setup, not outcome... and the traps hiding in plain sight.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 01:19 - What has been on our radar recently?03:30 - Stay tuned for the latest UGO episode!05:04 - China is taking the long view - and succeeding with it07:04 - Tech companies are starting to buy into rare earth08:30 - The risk of high stock trading firm concentration11:01 - Industry performance update13:33 - Q1, Rick: What other asset class volatilites besides gold are mispriced at the moment?24:59 - Karsan's thoughts on the current macro environment30:33 - What could trigger a deleveraging/degrossing event?32:28 - The impact of tariffs - what do the numbers tell us?41:21 - Is a firing on the horizon for Powell?46:53 - Inflation is becoming hard to hedge56:15 - The Emperor's New
19 Juli 1h 29min
UGO04: CNBC Legend on the Price of Losing Price ft. Rick Santelli
Rick Santelli joins Cem Karsan for a conversation that cuts through the noise. From the floor of the Cboe to the era of central bank primacy, Santelli reflects on how markets have been reshaped... not just by technology or policy, but by the loss of honest signals. They cover the Fed’s shift from restraint to control, the unintended consequences of zero rates, and why housing, credit, and the long bond may be nearing a breaking point. This isn’t a retrospective. It’s a clear warning from someone who’s seen what happens when incentives go unchecked.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Rick on X.Episode TimeStamps: 00:02 - Introduction to the UGO series01:26 - Introduction to Rick Santelli05:16 - The first trade Santelli ever made06:32 - The historical performance of gold08:39 - Why did Santelli move to interest rates?10:28 - How technology impacts the way we invest13:30 - A shadow Fed president14:46 - How Alan Greenspan changed everything18:47 - We are starting to pay the price of overspending22:04 - Money printing - a daisy chain of a closed circuit23:50 - How do we get out of debt and how does it end?29:06 - How do you invest wisely in today's economy?36:48 - Cost of credit: The lurking financial threat39:03 - How
15 Juli 44min
