OI6: A Fundamental Approach to Commodities ft. Ricardo Leiman & Pedro Marion
In this episode, Moritz Seibert is joined by Ricardo Leiman and Pedro Marion from KLI Asset Management, a UK-based commodities-focused hedge fund. Ricardo and Pedro explain why KLI’s trading approach is rooted in deep fundamental analysis of commodity supply and demand and how they integrate commodity equities into their portfolio. Furthermore, they mention that the strong diversification across their portfolio of about 30 markets allows them to hold directional positions longer term, avoiding stop-outs on short-term price reversals – a feature that’s also an edge. Ricardo and Pedro also provide color on markets which they believe are currently interesting, including copper, sugar, coffee, oil, and EUA emission allowances.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Follow Ricardo on LinkedInFollow Pedro on LinkedInEpisode TimeStamps: 02:09 - Introduction to Ricardo and Pedro06:18 -...
20 Mars 202445min
SI287: No Pain, No Gain ft. Katy Kaminski
Today, we welcome Katy Kaminiski back to the show as we reflect on her entry into the trend following space and what she has learned on her systematic journey. We also discuss different ways of allocating risk in portfolio construction and why Katy “loves skewness”, why preparing for pain can actually lead to better decisions as an investor and how changes in the global macro environment takes time to manifest in trends. Lastly, we discuss what we are both excited and nervous for in 2024.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Katy on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 00:50 - What has been on our radar recently?03:03 - When are trends coming to an end?06:24 - Industry performance update07:31 - How did Katy end up in the trend following industry?11:19 - What attracted her to the industry?12:40 - What Katy has learned from being an allocator15:44 - Risk variations in portfolio construction20:21 - What drives the biggest dispersion?21:54 - Understanding risk in your portfolio24:05 - Constant vol targeting - just a phase?25:25 - The importance of skewness31:06 - Mind the timeframe34:57 - Preparing for pain ahead of time (MAN Paper)38:15 - No pain, no gain...43:28 - Economic trend (AQR Paper)47:33 - Dealing with a world in...
16 Mars 202459min
GM58: Electric Dreams and Commodity Market Realities ft. Tor Svelland
Tor Svelland, of Svelland Capital, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to discuss the global macro forces driving global commodity markets. They discuss how the commodity markets have evolved over the years, as banks have scaled back trading and quant firms and CTAs have become more prominent players. Tor outlines the key reasons he believes commodity markets are in the midst of a super cycle, identifies where he sees the strongest opportunities and discusses what the commodity markets are currently suggesting about the state of global demand. They discuss how the global energy transition, de-globalization and nearshoring, rising geopolitical risk and increased defence spending will impact markets. They also delve into the periodic mis-pricings Tor sees between equities, particularly technology stocks, and commodities given their rising electricity demand. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Tor on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:26 - Introduction to Tor Svelland06:18 - How have commodity markets evolved?09:19 - More opportunities in commodity markets?11:32 - Why Tor started his own firm14:15 - Tor's outlook for the commodity markets17:10 - What has driven the flat trend in the major industrial markets?20:09 - Are we in a super cycle?22:55 - Translating trends into trades24:47 -...
13 Mars 20241h 1min
SI286: Profiting from Different Investment Regimes? ft. Rob Carver
This week, Rob Carver joins us to uncover his process of choosing which instruments to trade and how to manage the volatility of these. We also discuss how time frames affect position sizing and the ability to get reasonable exposure to a market as well as how you manage your expenses as a full time systematic trader. We round off our conversation with a deep dive into the latest paper from Man Institute to find out if different regimes exist in reality or just in hindsight. The paper uncovers if investors can reliably profit from correctly identifying them and if so, how? And how various types of investing have performed through different regimes, including Trend Following.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:26 - What has been on our radar recently?06:31 - Industry performance update13:41 - Q1.0, Matthijs: Assuming that the trading costs are not a problem for some low-vol instrument, then how can we decide whether/how to still safely include the instrument in our portfolio?23:50 - Q1.1 Matthijs: How do we distinguish between benign naturally low-vol instruments and disasters waiting to happen due to artificially dampened volatility?26:18 - Q2, Ben: If I can trade markets like sugar or OJ on 20-day breakouts, is it reasonable to do so or is that quote-unquote too fast?32:08 - Q3, Emil: As a full time systematic trader, how do you manage your expenses, with up and down months/years?43:09 - Discussing latest Man Institute paper on regime based...
9 Mars 20241h 11min
IL24: Our Chance to Build a Sustainable Future ft. Hannah Ritchie
In this episode we talk to Dr. Hannah Ritchie, Deputy Editor and Lead Researcher at Our World In Data and author of the Not The End of the World, How We Can Be The First Generation to Build a Sustainable Planet. Dr. Ritchie talks about her personal journey from a climate pessimist ready to switch careers to a data scientist explaining why the world can transition to a sustainable future. We discuss how China and India are becoming greener at a much faster rate than western countries did as they developed. We also talk about why electrification is so important and the role for nuclear and gas power in that process. She explains why food systems play an important role in emissions and the surprising list of individual actions that help - and also hurt - the environment. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Hannah on LinkedIn and Read her Book.Episode TimeStamps: 02:22 - Introduction to Hannah Ritchie09:17 - How does Hannah describe herself and her work?10:56 - How has global CO2 emission developed?16:01 - How is China managing their intermittency problem?19:10 - How...
6 Mars 202458min
SI285: Elections Ahead & What this Mean for Investors ft. Cem Karsan
Today, Cem Karsan joins us to discuss a wide range or really important topics. Inspired by questions from listeners we discuss how the balance in asset performance is shifting and how 0DTE impact markets. We also discuss how 2024 will contain more inportant elections than any other year in recent history and how we foresee the U.S. election will play out, the state of flows and the rise of a new meme stock. Lastly, we discuss whether the U.S. is beginning to loose the exorbitant privilege due to their huge debt and the potential power shifts that can happen in the nearby future.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 01:06 - What has been on our radar recently?05:13 - Industry performance update08:01 - Q1, Rick: Is positioning in tech under or over weighted?11:23 - How 0DTE impact markets18:08 - Is the VIX broken?24:03 - 2024 - The year of elections30:19 - Republicans or democrats - does it even matter to the markets?32:09 - The return of the Kennedy's39:15 - What is going on with flows?47:55 - The rise of meme stocks52:41 - How the U.S. debt will impact the dollar59:59 - A wild ride for Japan01:05:54 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover...
2 Mars 20241h 7min
ALO21: How to Run a Multi-Billion Dollar Sovereign Fund ft. Peter Madsen
Peter Madsen, CIO of SITFO, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to discuss how the $3.5bn State of Utah Sovereign Fund runs its investment portfolio. They discuss the rationale for Peter’s investment philosophy of having a diversified portfolio of growth assets, real assets, income generating assets and defensive strategies in contrast to the equity-centred portfolios of many endowments. Peter discusses the key risk considerations in managing the portfolio and how the team think about formulating return expectations. They discuss the opportunities in private markets and the potential risks in private credit in particular. A key element of the portfolio is the allocation to Systematic Convexity which includes Trend Following and Global Macro strategies and Peter discusses his journey investing in CTAs and some of the challenges and pitfalls of selecting managers. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Peter on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:56 - Introduction to Peter Madsen and his firm06:54 - How is their portfolio charactarized?09:16 - Their investment philosophy14:33 - A skepticism about equities?17:04 - How do the macro environment influence them?21:23 - What is reasonable return expectation for equities?25:19 - Splitting between public and private markets28:20 - Where lies the most risk?30:25 - Opportunities...
28 Feb 20241h 5min
SI284: Choosing Your Trend Following Battles ft. Nick Baltas
Goldman Sachs's Nick Baltas joins us today, to help us uncover if it is meaningful to use factor regression to evaluate managed futures. We also weigh in on couple of articles, relating to the outlook for trend following and the state of the industry, before turning our attention to some hard core research into how to construct the optimal trend following portfolio and why it is important to be conscious of which battles you pick. Lastly, we discuss the challenge of timing an investment into trend following, the pros and cons of trading alternative markets and more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Nick on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:23 - What has caught our interest recently?03:04 - The Nikkei index finally comes out it its 35 year drawdown05:35 - Industry performance update07:37 - Q1, Oliver: Does it makes sense to use factor regression to evaluate managed futures?14:24 - The state of the industry18:17 - Is trend following flopping?27:34 - Building optimal trend following portfolios36:15 - Pick your battles49:10 - Is there a way to time trend following?53:34 - Is it actually an advantage to trade alternative markets?01:04:44 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about...
24 Feb 20241h 6min
