TTU52: Do Amazing Things Just By Showing Up ft. Rob Hartman of Pacific Capital Advisors – 2of2

In this episode, we dive into the models and processes that Cambridge Capital and Andrew Baxter use to manage risk, research new ideas, and grow their business. We also talk about the importance for managers to explain why they do what they do, rather than just what they do.Listen in to learn more about the future of the managed futures industry and how to be successful in it.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:How his forecast method worksHow he develops his basic modelsHow they come up with new ideas for models at Cambridge CapitalThe various short term and long term models that they employ and how they use themWhen they make interventions to the systemThe risk management they use and why they have a risk budgetWhy they are continuously adjusting their risk in the marketThe drawdowns that they expect to see in their program and the ones that they have been throughWhy he thinks CTA firms had significantly higher drawdowns in 2013 then they had ever had beforeHow their research cycles workHow to compare a life track record with a simulation of the current programWhy we should look at why managers do things more than what they doWhy raising assets is the biggest challenge his firm faces todayWhat it takes to become a great fund managerThe skill that he would pass onto his childrenThe challenges he sees for the CTA space-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Extraordinary Popular Delusions and The Madness of CrowdsThe Winner’s Cursebooks by Reinhold MessnerFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review...

22 Nov 20151h 12min

Andrew Baxter worked at British Aerospace as an engineer before joining the investment management world. He still considers himself an engineer.Listen in to learn how he uses machine learning, why he keeps innovating, and how he started his own firm.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:Why Andrew considers himself an engineerHow he went from engineer to investment managementHow he started his firmHis philosophy on the investment management processWhy he harvests risk premiumsWhat he likes to do when he is not workingHow he works with machine learningThe things they learned from their career history that helped them build Cambridge Capital ManagementWhy it is important to stay ahead of the pack and keep innovatingWhat they do in-house versus outsourcingThe culture that he tries to cultivate at his companyHow he talks about track record to his investorsHow he evolved as the managed futures industry changed over the yearsWhat he does to manage riskThe objective of his program from a top-down viewThe different markets that his program trades-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Extraordinary Popular Delusions and The Madness of CrowdsThe Winner’s Cursebooks by Reinhold MessnerFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more...

15 Nov 20151h 16min

In this second part of our conversation, we dive into the specifics of how Charles Nenner and his team make their predictions, and what they predict in certain markets like Crude Oil, Copper, and Natural Gas. We also discuss the cycle of a major war at the beginning of each century, and David’s personal story of why he is just as curious today as the day he started.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:How they predict the price, and how the price and cycles work together.The fifth category they predict on is economic indicators.What is happening when a market is not behaving as the cycle they show indicates.What are some of the indicators of a big event like 9/11.Where he thinks Natural Gas is going.What he thinks about Copper.The battle between inflation and deflation and where he stands on those terms.About the 100 year war cycle and what he predicts for the next war.The cycles of infectious disease.Why they don’t have a fund that trades off of their predictions.The different types of clients they have.Why he does the job that he does.Why it is important to listen well.Why he thinks that thinking and listening are a lost art.-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Read the article David mentions in this episode featuring his work in Oil & Gas Investor.David recommends reading Chaos by James Gleick.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so...

15 Juli 20151h 5min

This episode has a unique and interesting guest, the kind we rarely have on this show. David Gurwitz does not trade in the financial markets, but provides predictions and research to many firms, including some we have interviewed. He looks at the cycles in financial markets. Keep an open mind during this episode and see what you can learn about Charles Nenner’s research methods, the start of their research business, and what predictions they have been correct on and which ones they missed.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:How David explains what he does, and how this interview is different.How he played semi-professional basketball in Spain before going into accounting.How he met Charles Nenner.How their business works and how cycles works.How Charles has predicted crude oil drop in 2014.What they look at when making their predictions.How they do media appearances and how media has changed.How they go about doing their research.Why sunspots might affect the stock market shifts.How different cultures are more open to the idea of cycles and their effect on the financial sector.The predictions they’ve made in recent years on the Yen, Gold, and the Euro.Why looking back at history can show interesting lessons.-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Read the article David mentions in this episode featuring his work in Oil & Gas Investor.David recommends reading Chaos by James Gleick.Listen to past episodes with a predictions expert Mahendra Sharma here and here.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to <a...

7 Juli 20151h 10min

In this second part of our conversation, Natasha dives into the details of the trading model and portfolio of Altis Partners, her firm. We discuss how they approach risk management, and how they’ve dealt with drawdowns over the years. She also gives her take on the future of the managed futures industry, what advice she would give to emerging firm managers, and other lessons she has learned along the way.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:About how Natasha and her team constructs their portfolio.How their models are adaptive.What their integrated risk approach does and how it works.What she thinks the capacity is of the strategy that her firm has.How she defines risk.How correlations play a part in their portfolio.Which sectors of the market do well with their model.How she sets the expectations for what kinds of drawdowns they might have.How to help investors with the emotional rollercoaster of drawdowns.How the firm goes about doing research.How to detect if a certain model stops working.What lessons they have learned from all their years in business.How success changes your mindset.Why it’s good to have people to look up to.Her biggest challenge facing her firm today.What investors are not asking when at due diligence meetings with her firm.Why a long term relationship with a client is important.What advice she would give to emerging managers today.Where she thinks the managed futures industry is going as a whole.-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Natasha recommends reading The Hard Thing About Hard Things, a book about building a business and entrepreneurship.She also recommends Fortune’s Formula, by William Poundstone.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode...

5 Juli 20151h 3min

Our next guest left a well known trading firm in London to start a quantitative trading firm with 3 other partners. There’s a lot to be learned from her insights on starting a business, building a culture, and making it through the obstacles along the way. Listen in for our discussions on the startup phase and the current trading model.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:How Natasha and her founding partners all worked at the same firm before breaking out on their own.About her childhood growing up as an only child and what got her interested in finance.How she got her first job in finance.When she got hired by QCM.How she met her founding partners.How and why Natasha and her founding partners broke off from QCM.How she set up her new firm with her partners.How they each had a different area of the business that they focused on.The big obstacles of the early days and knowing which people to talk to.What the biggest learning curve was in terms of hiring the right people.Why they built a 24-month buffer for their business that would let them stay in business if things went down.Why the’ve gone to the cloud for their business.The details of their core team.What would require them to expand the team.How Natasha explains their track record to investors and potential client.About how they reacted to the period of 2011-2013.The details of their trading program and what their philosophy is behind the program.-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Learn more about the film Trading Places, that inspired Natasha to pursue futures trading.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/2OnOvLbIV3AttbFLxuoaBW"...

29 Juni 20151h 7min

In the second part of our conversation with the cofounder of Evolutiq, we dive into the firm’s trading strategy, how they manage risk, and what kinds of investors they seek. He also discusses tips for budding entrepreneurs and firm managers, and how he deals with explaining the complexity of his trading models.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:The details of Oliver’s portfolio.What types of markets have more success for their models.Their unique allocation process.How to explain these scientific terms to potential investors.The question of simplicity vs. complexity.How they managed intra-day forecasting.How he manages risk.The way that market correlations play into the portfolio.Oliver’s thoughts on drawdowns and the worst ones that he is expecting.How do you know when a model has stopped working.What Oliver’s experience has been as the world has become more divergent.What keeps him up at night.What he is looking at in his research for the firm right now.How models can start decaying.Who he is targeting for his firm.How he manages the cash portion of his accounts.How setting up a company outside the big financial center affects his business.What questions investors should be asking him during due diligence meetings.The advice he would give to aspiring managers.-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Oliver recommends reading The Mathematics of Money Management.He also recommends Algorithmic Trading.Learn more about Harry Markowitz, mentioned in this episode.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an...

8 Juni 201559min

Our next guest has started and invested in many companies, and is from an entrepreneurial background. First and foremost, he is concerned with running a business, but he also knew he wanted to be a portfolio manager from an early age. Hear the fascinating story of Oliver Steinki on this episode, as we dive into his new firm and the details behind his models and strategy.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:The entrepreneurial background that Oliver comes from.How he studied in Germany, Madrid, and Manchester.About his childhood and when he started to realize he was interested in mathematics and finance.What he likes doing when he is not managing his own firm.What algorithmic trading is all about.How the scientific trading model generates signals.What the trade implementation phase entails and how it works.What it is that Oliver is trying to deliver to his investors.About the other companies he started before his current firm, and all the different industries those companies are in.Why he is a business man first and a trader second.Who is on his team and the roles they fill.Why the early phase of his business is important and what you can learn from how Oliver tackles this phase.How he would scale his current business model.How he creates a culture and keeps a partnership with his cofounders.His track record so far.The details of how his strategy is created.What a levy-process model is.How many models he is testing and trading and how different they are.Why they need to be right 54% of the time with their models.-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Read about the French mathematician that Oliver discusses, Paul Lévy.Niels mentions his earlier conversations with Dave Sanderson, which you can listen to here and here.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/" rel="noopener noreferrer"...

2 Juni 20151h 2min