ALO20: How Will Mega Trends Shape the Economy? ft. Casey Clark
Casey Clark, President and CIO of Rockefeller Asset Management, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to discuss the mega trends shaping the investment landscape and asset management industry over the coming years. We hear Casey’s insights on what are the key traits of great investors, how Rockefeller evaluates aspiring portfolio managers and what makes a great investment process. The conversation delves into the changing macro landscape, the implications of a positive correlation between bonds and equities for allocators and why we may see a resurgence of value investing and greater adoption of alternatives in portfolios. We also delve into ESG, the diverging trends in ESG investing in the US and Europe and how the framework of ESG leaders and improvers is key to how Rockefeller thinks about incorporating ESG into their alpha generation process. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Casey on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:45 - Introduction to Casey Clark07:02 - How do Rockefeller Capital Management manage their assets?10:01 - What is their investment philosophy?12:04 - Who are their clients?12:45 - How do they build their strategies?14:24 - How are they setting themselves up for mega trends like AI16:55 - What is driving the ETF growth?17:32 - Their approach to evaluating managers21:49...
24 Jan 20241h
SI279: Prepare for a Bumpy Landing ft. Katy Kaminski
In this episode, I'm joined by Katy Kaminski, who delves into the nuances distinguishing momentum trading from trend following, emphasizing the importance of comprehending the underlying philosophy of a trading strategy. Katy sheds light on the concept of 'pure trend' and offers insights on identifying convergent patterns within a trend following approach. We also reflect on the peculiarities of 2023, with Katy sharing her perspective on why we might be entering 'the final phase' and her expectations of a "bumpy" rather than smooth or abrupt economic transition, among other insightful topics.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Katy on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:00:52 - A funny story from Katy02:34 - An important shout-out03:42 - A rare event in Denmark06:55 - Industry performance update08:10 - Thoughts on 2024 so far09:42 - The difference between momentum and trend following13:53 - Convergent vs. divergent strategies24:08 - What does "pure trend" mean to Katy?28:03 - What makes you a pure trend follower?32:53 - Looking back at 202337:48 - An unusual year43:22 - Discussing Katy's paper on fixed income47:43 - How were trend models positioned in the 1960's?51:11 - What does your position mean?54:40 - Next big bull market in commodities?56:10 - Thanks for...
20 Jan 202458min
GM55: What Investors Need to Know about 2024 ft. Dave Dredge & Cem Karsan
Get ready for a powerhouse discussion as two titans of risk management, Dave Dredge and Cem Karsan, come together once again. These experts are renowned for their insights, and today, they're diving deep into what's unfolded since their last conversation and where the smart money should be in 2024. From avoiding pitfalls to uncovering lucrative opportunities, Dave and Cem have you covered. Tune in for a dynamic start to the year!-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Dave on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:37 - Looking back on our last conversation07:55 - Are markets looking too good to be true?14:04 - The importance of long volatility and owning convexity24:41 - Why is volatility compression normalizing?31:35 - A system under pressure38:48 - How is now different to the 1970's?42:09 - Can deglobalization be a good thing?53:00 - Where is the debt problem going?01:04:25 - Volatility and liquidity are opposite sides of the same coin01:09:08 - How Dredge is carrying out volatility sellingCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put...
17 Jan 20241h 22min
SI278: Trend Following Risk Premium...is it there & could it go away? ft. Rob Carver
Rob Carver returns to the show to discuss whether there is a risk that the Trend Following risk premium could one day disappear and how he manages exogenous and endogenous risks in a trend following system, how he thinks of trading single stocks instead of stock indices in a diversified multi-asset trend program and what the minimum lookback period would be, in order to be considered “long term”. We also discuss the irony of the newly approved crypto ETF, how the nature of bitcoin has changed and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:23 - What has caught our attention recently?10:14 - Industry performance update11:26 - Q1, Norbert: What is the long-term expectation for the trend-following risk premium as measured by the SG Trend Index after costs and its stability or sustainability?19:46 - Q2, Bruno: What is Rob's method for balancing endogenous and exogenous risk management and controls in a system29:36 - Q3, Oliver: What is Rob's take on trading single stocks instead of stock indecies in a diversified multi-asset trend program37:57 - Q4, Critter: What would the minimum lookback period be to be considered "long term"?41:59 - Q5, Chris: Can you share a couple names of software companies that do robust backtesting of trade strategies45:57 - Cypto ETFs have been approved!52:42 - Allocating to bitcoin01:04:31 - Looking into 202401:08:38 - Thanks...
13 Jan 20241h 10min
OI04: Do Alternative Markets Trend Better? ft. Scott Kerson
In this episode, Moritz Seibert is by Scott Kerson, the Head of GreshamQuant. Gresham is a commodity-focused investment management firm and GreshamQuant is their systematic trading arm. In 2017, they launched the ACAR Fund, an alternative markets trend following fund with an exclusive focus on commodities. Scott and Moritz discuss why they believes alternative markets to have better trending properties and higher Sharpe ratios within a trend following context and why they refuse to trade a larger portfolio which would also include the traditional futures markets most other CTAs trade. At the end, Scott also shares his outlook on the alternative markets CTA space with us. If you’re interested in alternative markets trend following, this is a valuable episode to listen to. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Follow Scott on LinkedInEpisode TimeStamps: 02:22 - Introduction to Scott Kerson08:27 - When did AHL Evolution start and what is it?13:54 - What is an alternative market to Kerson and what differentiates it from other markets?20:25 - Why an exclusive focus on commodities?22:45 - What markets are Kerson trading and why?24:04 - Where are the hidden gems?26:31 - Why Kerson restrict the markets he is trading30:37 - Maintaining a neo-classical trend approach31:26 -...
10 Jan 202446min
SI277: What Will 2024 Bring? ft. Cem Karsan
Cem Karsan joins us to kick off 2024, where we discuss what lies ahead, and where we question if the reassuring inflation picture with falling prices, rising employment, and decreasing interest rates, may be a mirage. What do recent trends tell us about the outlook for 2024 and is the inflation environment the true driver of the economy? Why does Cem believe we are moving towards stagflation and what implications will this have for the economy? How has the understanding of “normal” changed over time and how will the U.S election impact 2024? And finally, Cem explains why he believes we need crises and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 01:30 - What has been on our radar recently?03:02 - Industry performance update06:15 - Q1, Rick: What are the implications and risks of the recent spike in SOFR?11:02 - What trends have we seen recently?16:53 - It all comes down to the inflation environment?24:49 - Hidden dangers for the younger generation27:29 - Soft landing + goldilocks = stagflation?32:19 - Under the hood of inflation34:23 - What is normal?39:49 - How the U.S election will change the world46:30 - Will 2024 lead to surprising moves in the ongoing conflicts?49:59 - Looking from a bigger perspective53:00 - Looking into the crystal ball59:05 - Teasing for the conversation with David...
6 Jan 20241h 5min
ALO19: Managing Wealth for HNW Investors ft. Joe Prendergast
In this episode Joe Prendergast, Strategic Advisor and Head of Investment Strategy at Goodbody joins Alan Dunne to discuss the challenges and opportunities in managing wealth for HNW investors, particularly businesses owners. Joe outlines his investment philosophy and why a 50-50 allocation between growth assets and defensive assets is still at the core of his approach to proving a “peace a of mind” portfolio for investors. They discuss risk management and how to manage drawdown risk and the shortfalls of focusing too much on volatility as a risk measure when managing portfolios for private investors. They delve into the current investing backdrop, how higher interest rates have impacted asset allocation decisions and discuss why Joe is structurally more upbeat on the opportunities in public markets in the US but more optimistic on the opportunities in Europe and Asia for private equity.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Joe on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:46 - Introduction to Joe Prendergast04:50 - Prendergast's learnings from working at Credit Suisse07:00 - What types of portfolios are Prendergast running?09:49 - Prendergast's investment philosophy13:59 - How has 2022 changed the asset allocation space?16:32 - Could we have another 2022?18:56 - Having metrics for success26:50 - Managing cash...
3 Jan 20241h 5min
SI276: TTU YEAR-END Special Part 2
In this second part of our TTU Year-End special, we continue our conversation by discussing the challenge of defining non-trend strategies and the criteria for a good backtest, whether trend followers can afford to stand still in terms of research. We also discuss what is next for fixed income trading and we present our outrageous predictions for 2024. Happy New Year from all of us at TopTradersUnplugged!-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Nick on LinkedIn.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Katy on LinkedIn.Follow Andrew on Twitter and LinkedIn.Follow Cem on Twitter and LinkedIn.Follow Richard on Twitter.Follow Mark on Twitter.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:07 - Trend following in an unpredictable...
30 Dec 20231h 12min
