GAL05: Pumping the BRICS Agenda & Hidden Risks ft. Nelson Rangel
In this episode we are joined by a true Macro thinker, Nelson Rangel, CIO at Raven Capital. Nelson walks us through his fascinating lens of the world evolved from his formative career years where his mentors taught him chaos theory and quantitative analysis. The conversation delves in to global conflict, adapting to social media information flows, and the challenges of finding investment value in LATAM markets. Be sure to stick around to the very end where Nelson leaves us with a cliff hanger as he reveals the beginning of his three part investment framework to interpret the impact of human contact with more advanced civilizations!-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Nelson on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 03:32 - Introduction to Nelson Rangel08:09 - Takeaways from being exposed to chaos theory12:29 - A look around the globe17:37 - Reflecting on the U.S debt21:17 - How is the next decade unfolding for China?25:29 - The BRICs taking over the monetary system30:38 - Who is behind the manipulation of narrative on social media?34:58 - Being adaptable to new scenarios39:26 - Advice for investing in South America48:14 - News about UAPs (UFOs)56:24 - Key takeaways from NielsCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're
6 Sep 202358min
SI259: Trend Following & the New Normal ft. Katy Kaminski
Today, we welcome Katy Kaminski to the Systematic Investor Series, as we dive deep into trend following systems and how to overcome the unintended biases that can creep into CTA systems, why Katy believes everybody has to “go back to the drawing board”, why it is unrealistic to expect things to go back to “normal”, and why Katy believes we are not in a crisis but rather a correction. We also discuss how a crisis is in the eye of the beholder and shed light on the current global macro narrative. We round things off uncovering why Katy believes bonds are mispriced, why "simple" trend following strategies persist to thrive and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Katy on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps:01:16 - What has caught our attention recently?03:43 - Industry performance update06:06 - The challenge of bias in trend following systems13:54 - Taking the bonds out?16:22 - Advice on trading universal parameters19:35 - Going back to normal - a fantasy?23:35 - Trend following - a long divergence strategy26:31 - Are we actually in a crisis?32:05 - Are crises becoming shorter and shorter?36:38 - How does Katy define a crisis?37:40 - A different understanding of trend following?40:32 - Are there different types of crises?45:55 - A global macro perspective51:38 - Are bonds mispriced?55:37 -...
2 Sep 20231h 1min
GM48: Resilient Growth BUT Economic Downturn Ahead ft. Chen Zhao
Chen Zhao, co-founder and Chief Global Strategist at Alpine Macro joins us today to outline why growth has been resilient in 2023 but why he sees deflation and an economic downturn as a rising risk as we move into in 2024. We hear why the best global macro trades are the hardest to hold and why he believes long fixed income is the best trade at the moment. We discuss the long term outlook for growth and inflation in the major economies and hear why Chen is dismissive of the idea that deglobalisation and the greening of the global economy may be inflationary forces going forward. We also discuss investment opportunities in Japan and emerging markets and hear why Chen is concerned about the macro outlook in China but sees value in the local stock market. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Chen on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:13 - Who is Chen Zhao?06:19 - Why has the economy been so resilient?11:20 - The typical electoral cycle?16:44 - The outlook for inflation19:27 - Concerns about stagflation - valid or not?26:07 - Rates going back to zero?28:48 - Achieving high sustained investment growth31:01 - The effect of moving towards climate friendly production32:57 - China - a deflationary force38:38 - Bond yields - any surprises?39:29 - Concerns...
30 Aug 202357min
SI258: Absolute Momentum in a Chaotic Environment ft. Richard Brennan
Richard Brennan is back to discuss the lurking uncertainty in the economy and take a deep dive into absolute momentum. What is it, how is it used and how does it relate to trend following? How does complex systems really function and evolve over time and what role does correlation play in system design? And financial markets is in fact chaotic systems, then how do predictive modellers trade them? Is there an edge from price following techniques in their ability to trade in highly complex and sometimes chaotic environment? Why noise is not as random as it might occur, how risk should be calculated in complex systems and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:02:31 - What has happened since last conversation?08:04 - Industry perfomance update14:08 - Q1, Correy: If an investor is heavily weighed equities, as most are, are they better off with trend following providers that don't include equities as one of the utilized asset classes?20:06 - A deep dive into absolute momentum30:30 - Different implementations, same results45:47 - The role of correlation50:56 - Calculating risk in complicated systems01:14:10 - The weakness of the Sharpe Ratio01:21:04 - Know your manager well01:24:19 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment...
26 Aug 20231h 26min
IL20: How to Survive the Current Fourth Turning ft. Neil Howe
Best-selling author and renowned historian Neil Howe joins the show to talk about his New York Times’ bestselling book The Fourth Turning Is Here. Neil believes history moves in generational cycles that last about the length of one long human life. Each cycle has four eras - Turnings - that always arrive in the same order and last about twenty years. We are now midway through a Fourth Turning which is a time of exceptional upheaval and conflict. Previous Fourth Turnings happened during the Great Depression and WWII, the American Civil War and the American Revolution. The good news is a society that successfully navigates a Fourth Turning emerges reborn - more equal, more optimistic and more united. We discuss the implications of this era for financial markets, why it will be the Millennial generation that leads us through the coming conflict and what will characterize the world that emerges afterwards.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Neil on Twitter and Read his Book.Episode TimeStamps: 02:15 - Introduction to Neil Howe03:43 - What characterise each turning?17:53 - A generation cliff25:18 - The importance of the financial crisis in 200827:55 - Cycles are...
23 Aug 20231h 22min
SI257: Preparing for a Volatile Future ft. Cem Karsan
Cem Karsan joins us for a wide ranging conversation where we discuss the current volatility environment and if vol trading can actually be predictable, the current Fourth Turning and how this will impact the level of volatility and where Cem’s outlook differ from Neil Howe's, why demographics is “destiny” and the current tug of war between flows and macro. We also discuss why Cem is watching NASDAQ so closely and the historic rotations that are happening in markets at the moment, why Cem believes it is important to “be water” and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:56 - What has caught Cem's attention recently?03:14 - Volatility and seasonal patterns08:27 - Industry performance update09:34 - Is vol trading predictable?17:15 - Why are vol spikes becoming shorter?20:19 - Cem's take on the fourth turning33:12 - Why is demographics so critical today?39:04 - A tug of war between flows and macro50:28 - A new all time high for stocks?52:07 - Major moves in markets01:00:58 - Too bullish too soon?01:03:03 - Be flexible, be water01:06:07 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In...
19 Aug 20231h 8min
GM47: Is the Economy Actually Doing Better Than Expected? ft. Peter Berezin
Peter Berezin, Chief Global Strategist and Research Director at BCA Research joins us today for a wide ranging discussion on the outlook for global economy and global capital markets. We hear why Peter has been more upbeat than the consensus on the outlook for the US economy but why he continues to believe that the outlook is for recession next year. He outlines why US stocks may continue to make gains in the near term but the outlook is much more challenging on a five-year view. We discuss his Kinked Philips Curve framework for analysing the economy and why that continues to point to declining inflation in the near term. We also discuss the outlook for China, the renminbi, the yen and global emerging markets.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Peter on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:15 - Introduction to Peter Berezin05:35 - The current state of the U.S economy10:14 - Where is inflation heading?16:24 - A wrong prediction?20:23 - How will markets be impacted by AI and new tech?24:39 - How has the economy withstood higher rates?27:10 - What does Peter's models show us?31:32 - Challenges in the credit space33:33 - The implications of high valuations36:08 - Potential...
16 Aug 20231h
SI256: Investor Behaviour & the How to Deal with Transaction Costs ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Mark Rzepczynski is back to tackle some important topics relating to systematic trading. We discuss whether there is a best time of the year to trade and what has been driving the markets recently, how high interest rates and uncertainty affect investor behaviour, dispersion within markets and how it influences your trend following return. We also discuss quant research, the motivated reasoning bias and the importance of being open minded as a researcher to find better ways of being a trend follower, ways of dealing with transaction costs when building models, optimal ways of performing backtests and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:38 - Is there a best time to trade?05:07 - What has caught Mark's attention recently?08:36 - Industry performance update10:01 - Will we see a change in investor behaviour?17:04 - The benefit of cash21:11 - Are guaranteed products making a comeback?26:18 - The dispersion within markets32:05 - The Ex ante and Ex post problem for quant research39:23 - Stay open minded43:46 - Dealing with transaction costs56:53 - The road to robust models01:00:37 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you...
12 Aug 20231h 2min
