SI48: The state of the Bond market and do Institutions affect CTA performance

SI48: The state of the Bond market and do Institutions affect CTA performance

This week, we discuss the current state of the Bond market, how the larger, commercial institutions affect overall CTA Trend Following performance, how to deal with the fluctuations in currencies when performing backtests, and we also give our thoughts on various Trading exit strategies. Questions answered this week include: does the majority of CTAs get out of their equity positions when the S&P500 falls below its 200-day moving average? Should you avoid trading markets that perform badly in backtests? Can a system that is working too perfectly be a bad sign? What are the implications for trading every market in the same way? What is the benchmark Sharpe Ratio for Trend Following strategies? Is there a limit to portfolio diversification?

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfoliohere.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:45 – Macro recap from Niels

03:25 – Weekly review of performance

12:20 – Top tweets

34:40 – Question 1, Sam: What is the benchmark TF Sharpe ratio?

43:00 – Question 2, Sam: Can there be too much diversification?

53:15 – Question 3, Walter: Please discuss how you deal with foreign currency denominated futures.

58:10 – Question 4, Walter: Since most stocks don’t beat the index or T-bills, shouldn’t shorting be easy (versus the conventional wisdom shorting is hard)?

01:03:00 – Questions 5 & 6, Jeff: What are the risks of using larger (vs smaller) ATR multiples for exits? What kind of exits does DUNN use?

01:08:40 – Benchmark performance update

01:09:40 – Live event update...

Avsnitt(861)

RT13: The legacy of AHL ft. Adam, Harding & Lueck of AHL – 3of3

RT13: The legacy of AHL ft. Adam, Harding & Lueck of AHL – 3of3

On this special episode, my guests are the founders of AHL: Michael Adam who later co-founded Aspect Capital, David Harding also known as founder and CEO of Winton Capital and Marty Lueck also one of the co-founders of Aspect Capital.We sat down in the famous Abbey Road Studios in London to talk about how they developed their investing strategies, some of the most surprising decisions they ever made, and what kind of legacy they would like to leave behind.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:What Mike, David & Marty had to un-learn in order to improve their strategiesWhy David believes education can crush creativityHow some “new” optimization methods hurts investorsWhat David and Marty least like about their current strategiesWhat they plan on doing when they no longer run their firmsHow David approaches succession planningThe most important investment principles the guests would leave for their childrenWhy only a small amount of investors still keep managed futures as a core allocationThe most important decisions they ever madeWhich decisions had the most surprising resultsIf the media will ever understand what managed futures actually areThe legacy that AHL left in the world of investingFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Learn more about Michael Adam and Mike Marlin and The MelomaniacsLearn more about David Harding and Winton GroupLearn more about Marty Lueck and <a...

1 Sep 201733min

RT12: You don't have to be good...but you have to be useful ft. Adam, Harding & Lueck of AHL – 2of3

RT12: You don't have to be good...but you have to be useful ft. Adam, Harding & Lueck of AHL – 2of3

On this special episode, I continue my conversation with the founders of AHL: Michael Adam who later co-founded Aspect Capital, David Harding also known as founder and CEO of Winton Capital and Marty Lueck also one of the co-founders of Aspect Capital.We sat down in the famous Abbey Road Studios in London to talk about what AHL’s founders did after they created the company, what they’ve learned along the way about business and life, and how they view the current market climates.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:The future of a science-driven trading approachWhat David’s vision was when he started Winton CapitalThe beginnings of Aspect CapitalWhy Winton moved away from traditional trend followingThe challenges that equities and managed futures present for investorsWhy David chose to lower volatility of his strategyMichael’s experience with deep value investingWhen it’s time to ask “do you want to be happy or rich?”What caused Michael to leave the industryHow they have evolve using different data sources and new marketsThe danger of “hindsight bias”What disadvantages machine learning have presentedWhy Marty views asset allocation as part of a trend following modelHow they see our current financial climate-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Learn more about Michael Adam and Mike Marlin and The MelomaniacsLearn more about David Harding and Winton...

25 Aug 201742min

RT11: AHL 30 Year Anniversary ft. Michael Adam, David Harding & Marty Lueck – 1of3

RT11: AHL 30 Year Anniversary ft. Michael Adam, David Harding & Marty Lueck – 1of3

I was thrilled to be joined by the founders of AHL, to celebrate their 30 year anniversay of founding AHL: Michael Adam who later co-founded Aspect Capital, David Harding also known as founder and CEO of Winton Capital and Marty Lueck also one of the co-founders of Aspect Capital.We sat down in the famous Abbey Road Studios in London to talk about AHL’s beginnings, the revolutionary discoveries that AHL made, how MAN Group became the owner of AHL, as well as all the great things that Michael, David and Marty went on to create.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:How AHL got it’s startWhy Michael’s father was instrumental in the beginning of AHLWhat struck David when testing their early algorithmsWhy their “empiricist” outlook gave them an early advantageHow technology’s limits pushed their ideasThe breakthroughs of AHL’s early research and how it still applies todayWhy being a consultant gave AHL deep insight into trading the marketsThe crucial role the early clients had in AHL’s developmentThe power of finding the right people to work withWhy Michael preferred working with “unformed” employeesHow the original deal between MAN and MINT influenced AHLWhat the larger financial community initially thought about AHLHow AHL brought in investors in those early days-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Learn more about Michael Adam and Mike Marlin and The MelomaniacsLearn more about David Harding and <a href="https://www.winton.com/en/" rel="noopener noreferrer"...

18 Aug 201744min

RT10: The challenge pension funds face with Risk Mitigation ft. Ryan Abrams, Ela Karahasanoglu & Carrie Lo – 2of2

RT10: The challenge pension funds face with Risk Mitigation ft. Ryan Abrams, Ela Karahasanoglu & Carrie Lo – 2of2

On this episode I continue my conversation Ryan Abrams, Portfolio Manager at Wisconsin Alumni Research Association, Ela Karahasanoglu, VP at Workplace Safety and Insurance Board, and Carrie Lo, Director of Hedge Strategies at CalSTRS.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:When do you stop adding more managers?Ela’s magic range of managersCarrie’s approach to choosing managersHow management fees should be structuredWhat advice Carrie would give to other pensions planning to start allocating to risk mitigation strategiesWhy Ela recommends a thorough preparation and vision for risk mitigation strategiesRyan’s thoughts on trends during dislocation periodsWhat challenges the guests had to overcome as part of their implementation processWhy CalPERS are leaving hedge funds when CalSTRS are adding them, even when some of the board members are the same-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Learn more about Ryan Abrams and Wisconsin Alumni Research AssociationLearn more about Ela Karahasanoglu and Workplace Safety and Insurance BoardLearn more about Carrie Lo and CalSTRSCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key...

14 Juli 201735min

RT09: Why & How CalSTERS mitigate Risk ft. Ryan Abrams, Ela Karahasanoglu & Carrie Lo – 1of2

RT09: Why & How CalSTERS mitigate Risk ft. Ryan Abrams, Ela Karahasanoglu & Carrie Lo – 1of2

On this episode my very special guests are Ryan Abrams, Portfolio Manager at Wisconsin Alumni Research Association, Ela Karahasanoglu, VP at Workplace Safety and Insurance Board, and Carrie Lo, Director of Hedge Strategies at CalSTRS, for a fun and insightful conversation about how to mitigate the Risk in a Portfolio using Managed Futures.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:How Carrie diligently prepared her new Risk Mitigation Strategies (RMS)How much CalSTRS will initially allocate to the RMS part for their $200bn+ portolioHow Ryan uses risk mitigation strategies in his organizationHow Ela is slowly restructuring her alternative portfolioThe risks of risk parity strategiesIs trend-following really an opportunity cost question?How Carrie has worked with the CalSTRS board on implementing this strategyWhy Ela has focused more on tail-risk strategiesCarrie’s manager selection process-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Learn more about Ryan Abrams and Wisconsin Alumni Research AssociationLearn more about Ela Karahasanoglu and Workplace Safety and Insurance BoardLearn more about Carrie Lo and CalSTRSCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1....

25 Juni 201740min

RT08: Two Turtles & their Mentor ft.  Richard Dennis, Brian Proctor & Jerry Parker – 2of2

RT08: Two Turtles & their Mentor ft. Richard Dennis, Brian Proctor & Jerry Parker – 2of2

On this episode my guests are Richard Dennis, creator of the Turtle program, Brian Proctor, managing director of EMC Capital Advices, and Jerry Parker, founder and president of Chesapeake Capital, for a rare conversation about the inner workings of the Turtle program, told for the first time by Richard himself.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:The good and bad of targeting volatilityHow Jerry and Brian used the rules they learned through the Turtle experienceWhy the Turtle program was just “another piece of risk” Rich took on his bookJerry’s experience during and after the programBrian’s two biggest takeaways from the Turtle programIf proper trading can be a real business?What Rich would do differently in 2017The state of trend following todayIf being a good trader is enough to run a successful business?About other passions of the Turtles outside of trend following and tradingRich’s secret “career” in baseballIf Rich has found any counter-trend strategies that workJerry’s views on changing and adapting too muchWhat academia thought of trend following 40 years ago-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Learn more about Richard Dennis and the Turtle programLearn more about Brian Proctor and EMC Capital AdvisorsFollow Jerry on <a href="https://x.com/rjpjr12" rel="noopener noreferrer"...

9 Maj 201736min

RT07:  The Turtle Reunion ft. Richard Dennis, Brian Proctor & Jerry Parker – 1of2

RT07: The Turtle Reunion ft. Richard Dennis, Brian Proctor & Jerry Parker – 1of2

Today I'm joined by Richard Dennis, creator of the Turtle program, Brian Proctor, managing director of EMC Capital Advices, and Jerry Parker, founder and president of Chesapeake Capital, for a rare conversation about the inner workings of the Turtle program, told for the first time by Richard himself.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:Rich’s first introduction to trend followingJerry’s early days in the Turtle programHow Brian ended up as a TurtleThe TRUTH about where the Turtle name came fromThe surprising way Rich came up with the idea for the Turtle group…NOT what you expect!Why Jerry did not answer the first call from Rich when applying for the programThe preferred qualities of the Turtle recruitsWhy it was hard to predict which of the Turtles would succeedWhy persistence is important in trend followingThe relevance of the Turtle group in the past and todayIf diversification among markets is always the best practice?The right balance of financial futures markets and commodity futures marketsWhy more investors haven’t embraced trend following…yet?-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Learn more about Richard Dennis and the Turtle programLearn more about Brian Proctor and EMC Capital AdvisorsFollow Jerry on Twitter.Copyright © 2025

17 Apr 201737min

RT06: The future of hedge funds ft. Chris Solarz, Adam Duncan & Freeman Wood – 2of2

RT06: The future of hedge funds ft. Chris Solarz, Adam Duncan & Freeman Wood – 2of2

We are back with another great conversation where my guests are Chris Solarz, Managing Director, Global Macro Hedge Fund Strategies at Cliffwater, Adam Duncan, Managing Director at Cambridge Associates as well as Freeman Wood, who is a Partner and Head of North America, at Mercer, for a deep dive into the world of Consultants in Alternative Investments.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:If there are there enough assets to go aroundWhat made 2015 such a weak year for hedge fundsWhy 2016 was such a strong year for hedge fundsThe future of hedge fund investingWhat Chris thinks hedge fund managers have done poorlyHow Adam looks at fees as a coin tossWhy Freeman thinks that fees must add value to both partiesThe guest’s biggest takeaways from 2016How the rise of the voter is providing opportunities to hedge fund managersThe coming possibility of an equity correction, and it’s effectsThe question everyone should be asking right nowWhy a client needs a goal and a timeline for their assets-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Learn more about Chris Solarz and CliffwaterLearn more about Adam Duncan and Cambridge AssociatesLearn more about Freeman Wood and MercerCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment...

23 Mars 201738min

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