Top Traders Unplugged24 Aug 2022

GM22: Investing through a Fourth Turning ft. Niels Kaastrup-Larsen & Cem Karsan

Today, Cem Karsan and I reflect on previous conversations with guests on the Global Macro series and how they have developed us as investors. We also discuss the historical framework of the Fed and their role and power in the economy, how 40 years of monetary policy and technological revolution have caused historic inequality and how recessions have been handled throughout history. Additionally, we address the consequences of ultra low interest rates and high inflation and why we might see a loss of credibility in the Fed going forward, the importance of finding an edge in your investment strategy. Lastly, we discuss the strength of the dollar, how investors should position themselves in the wake of a Fourth Turning and much more.

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:54 - Looking back on previous GM guests and how they impacted our thinking

09:17 - Thoughts on the Fed and a historical perspective

21:11 - How much power and control does the Fed actually have?

31:02 - Low interest rates... a bubble maker?

40:03 - The inverted yield curve...a sign?

49:26 - Using volatility as a guide for equity markets

59:14 - What happens to the dollar?

01:04:13 - What should investors be considering at this point?

01:12:24 - Thanks for listening

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