Top Traders Unplugged21 Sep 2022

GM23: The Wars of Capital ft. Michael Howell

Today, we are joined by Michael Howell, Author and Managing Director of Crossborder Capital, for a conversation on how liquidity drives financial markets, based on his book, “Capital Wars: The Rise of Global Liquidity”. We address term premia and the impact it has on the economy, the off-shore market, how Central Banks have become the dominant players over the last decade and the capital war between China and the U.S. We also discuss what might happen if the global economy becomes divided into two worlds, where one is financed by the U.S. dollar and the other financed by the Chinese Yuan and the increasing networking risk and risk of crises within the financial system, the different types of liquidity and the recipe for creating a strong dollar and much more.

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:51 - Introduction to Michael Howell and his work

07:38 - How much debt is there globally?

14:08 - Why is longer-term treasuries desirable?

16:08 - The off-shore market

19:56 - The capital war between China and the U.S.

41:37 - Is the financial system more fragile than we think?

50:10 - What if the 10-year bond yield blows out rapidly?

53:59 - What has happened with the offshore short-term market?

59:55 - The currency space and relative liquidity

01:02:31 - Comments on the current regime

01:08:18 - Key takeaways from Niels

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