Top Traders Unplugged1 Mars 2023

GM35: The Drivers of the Commodity Markets ft. Nicky Ferguson

Today we are joined by Nicky Ferguson, Founder of It's Not a Science, an energy markets research firm based in Basel, Switzerland. We talk about speculative positioning in oil and natural gas futures, and how to distinguish between price action driven by fundamentals and flows. We discuss real time indicators of oil supply and demand, and the time it takes various investors to absorb new information. Finally, we discuss the limitations of the DXY dollar index as a baseline for measuring commodity price returns, increased options flows given new players in the market, and ways to understand what's going on based on modes of oil transport. Join us for a deep dive with an oil trader turned business owner, for an expert view of the mechanics of the energy market.

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Episode TimeStamps:

02:46 - Introduction to Ferguson and It's Not a Science

09:42 - The major players in the energy markets

12:56 - Speculative vs. commercial

18:43 - Forecasting the flow

25:02 - What has caused spikes in nat gas?

27:15 - Financial flows in commodity markets

30:22 - Risk considerations

32:14 - The relationship between fundamentals and price action

34:28 - Measuring demand

36:09 - The findings from Ferguson's research

39:46 - Oil on water supply vs land supply

41:33 - The impact of the dollar changes

45:33 - Measuring expectations

48:00 - The state and future of Ferguson's business

53:49 - Key takeaways from Niels

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