When hydro is no longer enough: Colombia’s race to diversify before the next El Niño

Colombia’s power system was built around a powerful advantage: abundant hydropower backed by domestic gas, delivering electricity that was relatively cheap, relatively clean, and largely local. But that model is coming under pressure from two directions at once. Climate volatility is making dry years more dangerous, and gas is no longer the easy fallback it once was. As a potentially severe El Niño approaches, the central question is no longer just how much installed capacity the country has on paper. It is whether the system has enough firm, flexible energy to meet rising demand without driving up prices or risking shortages.

Host Sylvia Leyva Martinez is joined by Álvaro Villasante, Vice President of Business Management and Innovation at Grupo Energía Bogotá, to examine how that shift is changing the energy debate in Colombia. Their core argument is that hydropower remains a strategic strength, but it can no longer be treated as a sufficient foundation on its own. As gas production declines and imports become more important, the backup system is getting more expensive and more exposed, turning what used to be a relatively stable balance between hydro and thermal generation into a more fragile equation shaped by infrastructure, timing, and security of supply.

A large part of the discussion focuses on what can realistically be done before the next stress event arrives. Álvaro argues that long-term renewables auctions are directionally right, but they do little to solve an immediate risk window running through 2026 and 2027. In the near term, the priorities are more practical: manage reservoirs carefully, accelerate gas-import infrastructure, and treat demand response and energy efficiency as system tools rather than side issues. The broader lesson comes from Brazil, where a more diversified generation mix and stronger transmission buildout have made it easier to move power across regions and absorb volatility, offering a useful contrast for a Colombian system still trying to catch up on grid investment.

The episode also broadens the conversation beyond market design and megawatts. Álvaro makes the case that energy security is ultimately about people: whether infrastructure reaches communities, whether electricity remains affordable, and whether reliable access is treated as a development priority rather than an abstract policy goal. The takeaway is that Colombia’s next energy challenge will not be solved by one technology alone. It will be decided by how quickly the country can move from discussion to execution on gas, transmission, renewables, storage, and demand-side measures before climate pressure exposes the full cost of delay.

You can learn more about the solar schools Alvaro speaks about in this episode here: https://www.grupoenergiabogota.com/actualidad-geb/comunicados-2022/aulas-solares-interactivas-apuesta-de-innovacion-del-geb-para-cerrar-brechas

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