The Robotaxi Reality Check You Won't Get From an Investor Deck

This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss their Texas Field Work where they rode in Cybercab, Waymo, Avride, May Mobility robotaxis, Kodiak and Aurora autonomous trucks, and inspected depots across Austin and Dallas.

Grayson’s verdict on Tesla’s Cybercab is simple. Once you go Cybercab, you don’t go back. In Austin, wait times averaged two to five minutes across dozens of rides, and from a software perspective Grayson found no material difference between Cybercab and the Model Y Robotaxi in terms of performance.

In Austin, Grayson counted roighly 200 to 300 vehicles at Avride’s upfitting facility, a presence he believes the market is overlooking, and views Hyundai as a quiet winner of the robotaxi buildout with the IONIQ 5 powering Waymo, Avride and Motional. The Zoox depot in Dallas was under construction with no visible charging infrastructure, and Grayson estimates it is 12 to 18 months from being operational.

Both Walt and Grayson rode in a Kodiak autonomous truck and Walt noted clear improvement ahead of Kodiak’s driver-out target on the Dallas to Houston lane by year-end. Additionally, Walt rode in an unsupervised Aurora autonomous truck at their Investor Day.

On the Foreign Autonomy Desk, Baidu is ramping supervised robotaxi testing in London with Lyft, Mercedes-Benz signed a licensing deal with Wayve, and Tensor Auto is preparing to deploy robotaxis with Volt Premium Taxi in Bulgaria.

Episode Chapters

0:00 Once You Go Cybercab, You Don't Go Back

03:56 Robotaxi in Dallas

09:01 Cybercab Wait Times, Pickups and Routing in Austin

12:10 Austin Robotaxi Depots

13:45 Avride's Austin Depot

16:02 Zoox's Dallas Depot

17:22 May Mobility in Arlington

20:17 Kodiak Targets Driver-Out on Dallas to Houston by Year-End

24:19 Avride in Dallas and the Uber Partner Math

26:46 Hyundai Is the Quiet Winner in Robotaxis

27:30 Walt Amends His View on Upfitting

30:57 Tesla's Vertical Integration and Supercharger Advantage

33:06 Aurora Investor Day and the 1,000 Truck Target

40:22 President Xi's Visit and a Wake-Up Call for Detroit

47:01 Foreign Autonomy Desk

49:33 Next Week

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