SI254: Does Trend Following Single Stocks Make Sense? ft. Nick Baltas

What is the difference between simply following a trend and capturing it? Why is growth not consistent and gradual and why do we want it to be?Learn answers to these questions and more in this week’s episodes. Niels chats with the founder of a seasoned trend-follower in Canada, who knew he wanted to go into the financial markets since his university days. His story of working for large investment banks to starting his own firm will inspire current managers and hopeful managers alike.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:Why Tim tries to get away from being labelled as one thing or another.About growing up on a farm in Canada.How he knew he wanted to be a trader.How his experience in the energy markets affected the way he ran his business when he started it.Why discipline is so important for the kind of manager that Tim is.Why he has stuck with the theme of trading commodities.What Tim does when he is not running Auspice.The difference between following a trend and capturing a trend.How growth is not slow and steady.An overview of the products that Auspice runs.Why they launched a beta product after launching their flagship product.The history of how Tim grew Auspice with his business partner.How he chose to structure his business.How a small team can deliver the same value as a larger manager.What people should notice when looking at the track record of Auspice.What the Diversified Program does.How many markets he actually trades.Why position resizing is important.-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Tim Pickering on <a...

22 Dec 20141h 5min

Rob Hartman knows that showing up is half the battle when it comes to work in any industry. But his viewpoint as a solo fund manager give us deep insight into the inner-workings of a firm and how it deals with drawdowns, track record, and investors’ questions. In Part 2 of our conversation with Rob, we dive into his models and programs and how each of them works. We also learn about Rob’s background that helps round out this picture of a successful manager.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:Why Hannah Montana has some life lessons to teach.Rob’s track record and how to read it.What happened when he changed his strategy.The details of the programs he runs.How Vanguard, his flagship product, works.How he manages his momentum trades, or trend following trades.Why his thoughts on position sizing have evolved over time.How he conducts his research and why he doesn’t do any discretionary trading on his models.The risk that he focuses on as a smaller manager and how he manages that risk.How he deals with questions about drawdowns from investors.How Rob copes emotionally when he experiences a drawdown.What his research process is without a research team.What is the optimal number of rules for Rob’s models to have.What questions investors are missing in their due diligence.Books he would recommend for would-be managers.The advice he gives to his kids and the lessons he wants to pass on.-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Van Tharp – Trade Your Way To Financial FreedomRishi Narang – Inside the Black Box: A Simple Guide to Quantitative and High Frequency TradingRob also mentions getting inspiration from Kathryn Kaminski, who was our guest on Episode 41 and Episode 42.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer <a...

18 Dec 20141h 12min

In starting any business, you run into unexpected roadblocks and challenges, and you learn something from each mistake. Our next guest is the founder of a trading firm who has grown his business twice and learned how to overcome the barriers in his way. We can learn a lot from someone who is ready for the unexpected whether it is good or bad.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:About his childhood in Upstate New York and Pennsylvania.Rob’s interest in music and sports.How his early Rock and Roll career faired and how he went into the financial industry.How he got hired at IBM.His years at IBM and the lessons it taught him.How his fascination for trading started after he began a consulting business.The tipping point: when he went full-in to the trading business.How he learned about different strategies and tested them.When he came upon trend following and what made him stick with it.What kind of trend following he started with.How a drawdown taught him he needed to differentiate himself from other managers.The lessons that his first expansion stage taught him.The big event that happened after 2010 that changed everything.About MF Global and the meltdown of that firm.An overview of the programs that his firm runs.How he manages investor expectations with a small team.How he outsources operational roles in order to cut costs and remain a one-man shop.-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob Hartman on Linkedin.Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights...

15 Dec 20141h 13min

Welcome to Part 2 of our conversation with Dave Sanderson. In this episode we explore his trading program in detail, from the markets the firm trades to how they describe their program to investors. We also explore the challenges that he goes through as a business leader, dealing with drawdowns, and why optimism is so important to Dave.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:Why Dave believes that QIM is a unique firm in a reasonably similar category as KFL Capital Management.How to describe Krystal to investors and why it can be a challenge.About the length of time it takes for Krystal to compute the data and make a decision.Why the breakthroughs in computational power are supporting KFL Capital Management to make their systems faster each year.The markets KFL trades.Expected drawdown and volatility Krystal expects.How Dave expects to deal with drawdown environments.Research cycles within KFL Capital Management and the potential for a second Krystal.About the 99.3% match rate between their live trading and back testing results.The biggest challenge for KFL Capital Management in today’s market.About the challenge of attracting AUM in the modern financial landscape.Asymmetry of agency and understanding how to focus on who you’re talking to.Regarding the difficulties of explaining machine learning and big data ideas.Commonalities in the highest level due diligence explorers.Entrepreneurial perspective, great books and an open minded perspective on failures.Why optimism is such a powerful force in today’s world.-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:The Medallion Fund – Jim Simon’s Fund.The Innovators by Water Isaacson.Zero to One by Peter Thiel.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to <a href="mailto:info@toptradersunplugged.com%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"...

4 Dec 20141h 14min

Our next guest on Top Traders Unplugged is the CEO and Co-Founder of KFL. In this episode we explore their trading strategy and uncover the fundamental differences between what they are doing that makes them so different from traditional alternative investment organizations.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:Transitioning from commercial litigation to wholesale mutual fund vendingHow Dave Sanderson was exposed to alternative investments in the first placeThe convincing required to get top big data scientists to work on financial challengesThe comical story of how carefully big data scientist come to conclusionsWhat Dave Sanderson loves to do when he isn’t working directly on KFL Capital ManagementHow Dave Sanderson sees the deviation between machine learning and systematic tradingWhat it means to exist in a deluge of big dataHow Dave Sanderson and KFL perceive themselves and the usefulness of labelingIs machine learning a superior method than conventional approaches to trading?About the choice of Krystal as a name for their fundThe structuring challenges behind KFL Capital Management and why they are more like a tech firmThe focus for expanding KFL Capital ManagementAbout evolutionary computing and how KFL Capital Management grows with the marketsIs there an environment which would be optimal for Krystal?Is there an environment which would be severely challenging for Krystal?The use of non-parametric modeling and why this type of prediction takes KFL out of most conventional finance sector buckets-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Man AHL – Dave Sanderson’s initial exposure to alternative investment.Thomas K. Hunter – “He’s probably done more tech deals than anybody in Canada.”Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to <a href="mailto:info@toptradersunplugged.com%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"...

1 Dec 20141h 15min

In the second part of our interview with Bastian, we talk about the ins and outs of his trading program and how they came to create the current trading system that they run now. Niels talks with Bastian about drawdowns, risk management, and how investors should read and understand a manager’s track record. Listen in to find out more about Deep Field Capital and learn what it takes to be an successful emerging manager today.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:About the 23 potential markets that Bastian trades, and which ones are actually traded.How he uses a “bus stop” metaphor to explain which markets get picked for trading.How he views risk and how he deals with risk management.If there are certain markets that are better performing for his strategies than others.What kinds of drawdowns he expects his strategy to go through.The three different types of investors that come in to his fund.What he learns from drawdowns when they happen.About the research and futures development that his firm conducts.What the biggest challenges are today for his business.What reason investors give for not investing in his fund.What question investors are not asking in their due diligence.If he was starting out today, the things he would have done differently.-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Bastian Bolesta on <a...

27 Nov 20141h 20min

The story of Deep Field Capital’s Founder and CEO is an interesting one. Bastian Bolesta met his future partners whilst spending a semester abroad in China before returning to Germany and then moving to Switzerland to join them. The team also moved from the discretionary trading space to a unique way of systematic trading. Deep Field is a relative newcomer to the industry as they don’t have a 20+ year track record, so our conversation has timely insights for those looking to start a firm and begin managing external client capital.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:Bastian’s background and how he got interested in finance.How he grew up in Frankfurt and went to university there.What he learned from a semester abroad in China and why he returned there after graduating.How he met his future business parters and started their first business.How they went from the discretionary trading mindset to a systematic trading firm.How they came up with their initial trading ideas.The difference between discretionary and systematic traders.What he does when he’s not running his business.Pros and cons of trading external capital and how they started trading other people’s money.How Bastian looks at the industry as a young and vibrant firm (started after 2008) and offers a different perspective then those who have 20+ years in the industry.How he built the business from the ground up and how to grow a business smartly.How to convince investors that you can compete with larger managers.How regulation affects the business.The track record of their strategy and how investors should look at it.The details of their trading program, and why they work in “themes”.The allocation process for his program.-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Bastian mentions this “Pick Me” moment from the movie Shrek.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an

24 Nov 20141h 23min

In our continued conversation with Roy Niederhoffer, we discuss risk management, drawdowns, why negative correlation is so important to Roy, and what gets him out of bed every morning (and what keeps him awake at night). Learn more about how to create a balanced and diversified portfolio or what it takes to be a manager.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:What has changed by the fact that more and more trading decisions are made by computers instead of humans.The issue of model decay in Roy’s field.Why he has constructed his trading program the way that he has.His ten-step process from idea generation to putting it into the system. The research process laid out.How his firm does research.How position sizing plays a role in the short term space.How he keeps model slippage to a minimum.Risk management and how Roy deals with it.When to use discretion to reduce risk.What he learns from going through a drawdown.How he keeps investors in the firm during a tough time.How he personally deals with drawdowns.How he measures the effectiveness of his research.If his risk tolerance went down once he had more money under management.What the biggest challenge is for Roy in the short term management space.What investors are not asking him during due diligence.What makes him go into work everyday.Books that Roy recommends reading for managers and investors.How the office environment affects how investors perceive a firm.About downside protection and negative correlation.-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Roy mentions the Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds.He recommends Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.Roy highly recommends Thinking, Fast and Slow.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your...

20 Nov 20141h 23min