What Happens When Certainty Disappears? EP 308

This week on Energy Unplugged, Anise Ganbold, Head of Research - Global Energy Markets & Hydrogen at Aurora Energy Research, is joined by Philip Norman, Partner and Head of International Arbitration at CMS.

Long-term energy contracts are designed to create certainty. They underpin billion-dollar investments, support critical infrastructure, and help keep energy flowing across borders.

But what happens when the world changes?

From pandemics and sanctions to wars, shipping disruptions and political intervention, recent years have tested assumptions many contracts were built upon. As markets become more volatile, questions around risk allocation, force majeure and contractual flexibility are becoming increasingly important.

Drawing on decades of experience in international energy disputes, Philip explains why contract terms often matter more than price, how legal systems approach disruption differently, and what happens when unforeseen events put agreements under pressure.

The world's energy systems depend on long-term contracts. The challenge is making sure they can survive in a world that no longer feels predictable.

Main topics include:

Who really carries the risk when energy markets are disrupted?

Why risk allocation can matter more than price

How force majeure works in practice

Whether the next generation of energy contracts will be more flexible

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