How to See Disruption Before It Wins

How to See Disruption Before It Wins | Glenn Marshall Guest: Glenn Marshall, energy and climate researcher based in Toronto

Host: Kumar Dattatreyan

Episode Date: October 6, 2026 Watch on YouTube

Why You Need to Listen to This Episode

A banker in 1903 told his client not to invest in Ford. The automobile was a fad. The horse was here to stay. We laugh now, but from inside that moment the call looked reasonable. That is the trap Glenn Marshall came back on the show to talk about. Exponential change is nearly invisible while you are standing in it, and by the time it is obvious the disruption has already won.

Glenn makes the case that energy is where this is playing out right now, faster than almost anyone is pricing in. The spark was the closing of the Strait of Hormuz and the overnight jump in oil prices. From there the conversation goes under the hood to Wright's Law, the rule that cost falls a fixed percentage every time production doubles. Solar has followed that curve for decades. It now supplies about 8.7% of global electricity, up from 1% in 2015. Texas is the proof on the ground, where 11 grid conservation appeals in 2023 became none the next summer after a solar and battery buildout.

What You Will Learn in This Episode

Why the 1903 Banker Was Not a Fool The banker who called the car a fad was not stupid. In 1903 the horse still made sense. Glenn uses that moment to explain why exponential growth is so hard to see from the inside, and why the same blindness is hitting leaders today who plan in straight lines while their industry bends into a curve. The lesson is not about cars or solar. It is about the pattern itself.

The One Rule Behind Chips, Phones and Solar Wright's Law says that every time cumulative production doubles, cost drops a fixed percentage. For solar that drop is about 20% per doubling, and it has held for decades. Glenn traces the same curve through the computer chip, from a machine everyone lined up to use to the one in your pocket, then lands it on solar. Once you see the rule, you stop being surprised by what it does.

Why the Forecasts Keep Being Wrong The International Energy Agency has underestimated solar growth for years. Glenn explains the distinction most people miss. The miss is about deployment, how many gigawatts get built, not the per-unit cost curve. Countries and companies make investment decisions on projections that have been provably low, and that gap is where bad capital allocation lives.

How Texas Flipped in a Single Year Texas had 11 grid shortfalls in 2023. The next summer it had none, then so much midday solar that wholesale prices went negative. Glenn tells the story of technology-neutral competitive procurement, the market design that lets the cheapest source win without anyone picking favorites. It is the clearest real-world proof that this is not theoretical.

Why Nuclear Runs the Curve Backward Solar and batteries get cheaper as we build more. Nuclear does the opposite. Glenn walks through the negative learning rate, the gas turbines back-ordered to 2030, and the data centers now bolting airplane engines to the side of buildings because they cannot get power any other way. The cost comparison is becoming impossible to ignore.

What Nearly Free Energy Unlocks Glenn closes on abundance. Once the marginal cost of power falls toward zero, things that were too expensive become viable. Large-scale desalination. Cheap fuel for EVs and heat pumps. The harder industrial problems like green steel and cement. The takeaway for leaders is simple and uncomfortable. Costs are heading down, and your five-year plan should assume it.

Best Quotes from This Episode

By just 2030, solar electricity will be absolutely and reliably free during the sunny parts of the day for much of the year, pretty much everywhere." (Jenny Chase, BloombergNEF, quoted by Glenn)

"May the best technology win. Whoever can provide the cheapest electricity, that is who we are going with."

"I just want free energy and I want it now. It is not a left or right thing."

"It is really hard to see from the outside. In five years we will look back and say it was obvious. Right now we are in the thick of it."

"If the sun doesn't come up, we're all dead. The sun's going to come up."

Connect with Glenn Marshall LinkedIn: [confirm Glenn's preferred LinkedIn URL before publishing]

Glenn is based in Toronto and digs deep into energy, climate and the economics of disruption. He is glad to keep the conversation going with listeners who want to dig into Wright's Law and the energy transition.

Take the Disruptor Method Quiz Are you disrupting or about to be disrupted? Find out in under five minutes: https://www.thedisruptormethod.com/quiz

Work with Kumar Book a 30-minute conversation: https://tidycal.com/coachkumar/30-minute-meeting