Has your project been overtaken by events? 8 strategic updates | Rob Wiblin

I have a plea for all staff at AI companies: reassess if your current role is still your best opportunity for impact. And if it’s not — move.

Frontier lab staff listening to this show will mostly already be struggling to set things on a better path, in what are demanding and stressful roles.

Many will have changed their focus in recent months exactly as I’m suggesting. But if you haven’t had time to reconsider: the strategic situation is shifting so fast, if you don’t stop and look around once in a while, you could miss your chance.

Many technical staff including Anthropic co-founder Jack Clark now believe it will become possible to fully hand over AI R&D to the AIs themselves as early as next year — and if not then, in 2028 or 2029 instead.

If you work at an AI company and believe recursive self-improvement (RSI) could come as soon as that, it likely demands taking decisive steps to make sure your role either delays RSI, or makes it a bit less likely to blow up in our faces.

You’ll know better than me what that likely looks like for you. But to get your creative juices flowing, I suggest eight ways the strategic situation appears to have shifted to me, though I don’t know everything you do, and appreciate all are debatable:

1. Chain-of-thought monitoring probably stops working without a big push to keep it
2. It’s unproductive to patch surface indications of deep structural problems you aren’t solving
3. Safety and alignment evals need a credibility revolution to stop misleading the public
4. Helping with capabilities advances looks worse than before — especially bringing forward RSI
5. There’s ever less need to help with purely commercial work
6. ‘Pacing the frontier’ is unambiguously necessary, and working to make it happen is a huge new opportunity
7. Staff have an ever-shrinking window to organise as a group and shape events
8. There are new opportunities for impact outside frontier companies that are worth considering

I know you may well be exhausted, overwhelmed, and anxious as it is. David Robinson (ex-OpenAI) described AI company staff as “running on fumes” on the Ezra Klein Show a few weeks back, which sounds about right.

But unfortunately there’s no way to escape the need to periodically check in on the bigger picture and see where you can slot in to greatest effect.

This episode was recorded on October 16, 2026.

Learn more, video, and full transcript: https://80k.info/reprioritise

Chapters:

• A request for AI company staff (00:00:00)
• Chain of thought (00:03:34)
• Don't paint over the cracks (00:04:44)
• It may not be your most aligned model ever (00:06:00)
• Capabilities advances look worse (00:06:44)
• Ever less need for altruists to do commercially focused work (00:08:50)
• Pacing the frontier (00:09:29)
• Organising staff (00:11:07)
• Consider working somewhere else (00:12:38)
• Reprioritise (00:13:27)

Our production team includes:

• Video editors: Josh Alward, Dominic Armstrong, Jasper Luithlen, Milo McGuire, Luke Monsour, Simon Monsour, Ollie Bignell, and Andrés Escobar
• Producers: Elizabeth Cox and Nick Stockton
• Coordination and support: Katy Moore, Lou Moran, and Cody Fenwick
• Camera operator: Dominic Armstrong