SI257: Preparing for a Volatile Future ft. Cem Karsan

How would it feel to identify trades no one else you know is looking for?Our guest is back and this interview is all about carry trades, mean reverting environments, merger arbitrage, volatility arbitrage, tail hedges and how to become the best trader possible. It’s quite likely there is something in this interview which will help propel you forward as a hedge fund manager or in your research of managers.Welcome back to the second part of our interview with Chief Excutive Officer of Future Value Capital, Roman Lutz.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:Simple Models used by Future Value Capital to implement trend followingHow they utilize carry tradesThe third area of models: Tail HedgesLearn about how to carry potentially large value variance swaps while keeping the premium for holding them downWhere the variance exchange swaps derive from whether from OTC with counterparts or constructed using exchange listed productsLearn about Credit Support Annex (CSA)Risk management procedures at Future Value CapitalThe purpose for tactical asset allocation meetings and the decisions that are madeThe common performance drivers and if there is a dominant part of the portfolio that is responsible for the performanceHow Roman translates the complex trading strategy of Future Value Capital to investorsHow Future Value Capital implements trades and why they consider it a key strength of their programHow much AUM would be optimal running the program or if the potential is unlimitedHow to create certainty around the risk Future Value Capital holds and how they define that riskWhat Roman Lutz considers to be one of the riskiest thing that could happen in the financial systemWhat to expect in terms of returns and drawdown when investing in Future Value CapitalHow to realize when a model is no longer workingPersonal habits that contribute to Roman’s success in managing a hedge fund-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review...

7 Aug 20141h 1min

Can you implement well established hedge fund strategies in a systematic way?Future Value Capital has been researching this for years, before they started trading. They are unique because of how they simplify and automate complex Risk Premia.But we aren’t the best at explaining their systems. Roman Lutz, the Chief Financial Officer of Future Value Capital will explain it all in this interview.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:About Merger Arbitrage and How investors can ProfitWhat criteria they look for in mergers, such as Market Cap, Deal Size, Liquidity etc.What currency markets Future Value Capital entersThe app. 15 strategies they use and how many sub strategies they may haveThe origin stories of where the Future Value Capital strategy derived from.Understanding the typical way to build a derivative businessWhy the average correlation of a hedge fund with equities has shifted from 0.6 to 0.9 from the 1990’s to today.How Scottish Whiskey tasting can kickstart long term business relationshipsAddressing the “Black Box” label that many systematic programs hasWhat environment Future Value Capital’s systems are best suited to operate withinThe business structure of Future Venture Capital and the alliance with Trium CapitalAbout the post Madoff and additional regulatory environment investors are operating inHow Roman Lutz developed the shared business management and split the overhead cost with other emerging fund managersThe negative side effects of sharing hedge fund management business practices with other firmsA ballpark figure for the cost of being part of the Trium Manager Alliance and get the services required to be able to operate as a regulated and well run firmHow Roman and partners develop new plans in regards to where the economy is going and how to develop plans to manage funds going forwardHow merger arbitrage and volatility arbitrage connect implied and realized volatilityHow to buy realized volatilityWhen to deploy and when not to deploy the realized volatility trades (when volatility starts to trend)Main categories from a strategy point of view – Trend Following for exampleHow Future Value Capital uses trend following-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Listen to the past episode with Marty Bergen from Dunn Capital mentioned in regards to the higher correlation between traditional alternative investment space and the traditional assets.Lars Jaeger owner of Alternative Beta Partners – Wrote extensively about the lack of alpha to people hunting it. 4x more assets are looking for alpha than alpha is available in the market.Listen to our previous guest Karsten Schroeder from Amplitude Capital on the value of systematic trading vs. discretionaryLearn more about the determining implied market volatility with VIXFollow Niels on Twitter, <a...

4 Aug 20141h 2min

Imagine if your assets under management went from $721 million to $50 million….Would you have the courage to stick with your system?Our next guest was able to weather that storm and come out even stronger. In fact, he gives credit to the fall in assets because it was an important component to improving their processes and efficiency today.We’re excite to share with you, the second part of my interview with CEO of Systematic Alpha Management, Peter Kambolin.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:How many markets Peter trades and the number of different spreadsThe three points during a day in which volatility is elevatedWhat triggers an exit from a trade when profit levels haven’t been reachedHow Systematic Alpha Management makes decisions relating to sizing market positionsThe number of daily trades Systematic Alpha implementsHow much of the P/L comes from the hedge component of spread decisionsWhat kind of Risk Budgets that Systematic Alpha Management runsHow to drawdown profile has changed over the last few yearsEstimating and predicting Black Swan eventsHow Peter personally balances the challenging feelings of managing a portfolio in drawdownExploring mean reversion and how the hedge ratios change dailyOn the value of being located in the heart of New YorkThe biggest challenge for Peter in running Systematic Alpha ManagementPeter’s opinion on why success in the CTA industry has shifted from the United States of America to EuropeWhy individuality is critical in success in the CTA industryPeter Kambilin’s biggest failure and what he learned from itSome fun facts about Peter that you probably would never have guessed-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/2OnOvLbIV3AttbFLxuoaBW" rel="noopener noreferrer"...

31 Juli 20141h

Peter Kambolin is the common sense CEO behind Systematic Alpha Management, an Award Winning CTA Firm which has come through the tremendous market forces of the past 10 years. Their staying power is a testament to their success as conscious, ruled based traders.This episode is about his hero’s journey from immigrant origins in Moscow to founding a lasting, top financial service company headquartered in New York City.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:About the effect of the 2004 internet bubble and how Systematic Alpha created a “market neutral” CTA strategy in responseWhat it’s like to win global CTA awards yet still have to hunt new business due to capital flows towards large investment firmsPeter’s story of moving from Moscow to New York and how he entered the finance industryThe surprising story of how Peter was inspired to start his own firm at 21 years of ageHow Peter and Alexi work together to maximize each others strengths, and control for each-other’s weaknessesAbout the transition from long term to short term CTA strategiesWhy living in New York yet playing in Miami helps stoke Peter’s creativityThe story of the dramatic period of March-August 2011 in which they experienced a drawdown that let to a drop in AuM from 721 million to 50 million due to investor redemptions.The effects of the coordination of global economic decisions by government on volatility and it’s effect on the overall environment for Systematic Alpha Management’s CTA programs.Why Peter considers Systematic Alpha to be a stronger firm after the steep drop in AUM they experienced in 2011.Where Systematic Alpha’s value proposition is and the importance of a CTA position in diversificationHow to get out of losing trades when liquidity is a problem-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on <a...

28 Juli 20141h 5min

Welcome back to Top Traders Unplugged. On this episode Karsten and I discuss the systems and implementation that has led Amplitude to such remarkable success. As the interview comes to a close, we learn about Karsten’s philosophy of success and entrepreneurship. Despite being based outside the global financial hubs (i.e. New York, Chicago, London) Amplitude has experienced world class results. He provides a deep philosophy on achieving success in the CTA industry.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:Allocation of capital from a stop-loss point of view when doing short term tradingAmplitude Capital’s systems for trade implementationWhy high frequency trading is a very different strategy from that of Amplitude Capital’sRisk management strategies and the framework for embedding these principles into the Amplitude Capital operationsExploring the meaning of market correlation in short term CTA strategiesKarsten Schroeder’s philosophy on drawdownsHow managers can do a better job of explaining drawdownsThe role of teamwork and processes in the research cycleThe internal processes for validating implementation of strategies at Amplitude CaptialKarsten Schroeder’s explanation for why Amplitude has experienced such successDo financial leaders need to live in financial hubs? How living outside of the financial hubs has impacted Amplitude CapitalThe difference between European CTA managers and US counterparts. Why has the market dominance shifted?The philosophy of failure that empowers Karsten Schroeder’s entrepreneurial journeyWhat continues to inspire Karsten to keep running the businessThe question investors are not asking that they should be:-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/2OnOvLbIV3AttbFLxuoaBW" rel="noopener...

24 Juli 201444min

Through courage and vision, Karsten Schroeder co-founded Amplitude Capital as a pioneer in the CTA industry.Why pioneers? Because they focused on short term trading.In this episode of Top Traders Unplugged, Karsten and I discuss Amplitude Capital’s scientific approach to Amplitude Dynamic and Amplitude Klassik. These are the two short-term rule based trading programs that Karsten and his team run to invest billions of dollars on behalf on a small group of institutional investors.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:The founding story of Amplitude CapitalAbout the motivation source for choosing short term tradingThe scientific processes guiding Amplitude’s perception of the marketsHow Amplitude manages their in-house and outsourced business processesWhere the point of optimal capital under management is for Amplitude CapitalA bird’s eye view of their historical track record and their reaction to the market shift in 2009On the effects of quantitative easing and other government interventions in market healthModel decay and how to best deal with itThe design structure of Amplitude Capital’s ProgramsMarket dynamics and where the Amplitude programs tradeDiffering philosophies: market specific models vs. models for all marketsComparing mean reversion models (counter trend models) vs. trend following models-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Karsten Schroeder on Linkedin.Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever

21 Juli 201446min

Today we will continue our conversation with Jerry Parker the founder of Chesapeake Capital and widely known as the most successful Turtle ever.After wrapping up his position with Richard J. Dennis as a famous “Turtle,” he went on to start his own asset management firm, Chesapeake Capital Corporation.In this episode we discuss the evolving CTA industry and the story of Chesapeake. It’s a powerful story from one of the most successful people in the industry. We really hope you enjoy it. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:How the research and complexity of systems has a backwards effect to making moneyChallenges with entering stock markets with CTA strategiesWhy counting the trades and analyzing sample size is what most investors forget to ask when seeking fund managersWhere the CTA managers have failed investorsHow Jerry Parker handles emotions during drawdownsWhy markets have changed so that longer term focus has proven more successfulLearn about the philosophy of “The Markets are the Heroes”Important lessons from a long, successful career in the CTA industryWhat is it that keeps investors from Turtle CTAs and choose larger financial organizationsWhy we see a skewed distribution towards profitability of long side trades and short side tradesThe key legacy traits left behind by the Turtles and if the experiment could be replicated nowWhy Jerry Parker’s contribution to the CTA space will be that he sticks with the plan and be the last one going down with the trend following shipLessons for upcoming CTA managers from Jerry ParkerDebunking trading cliches like, “you never go broke taking a profit” and “exits are more important than entries”Personal habits that have contributed to Jerry Parker’s successHow Jerry Parker would start if he were to start all over again-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Ray Dalio – Bridgewater CapitalLearn about Jerry Parker’s Acting “Career” on his IMDB pageFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions...

16 Juli 20141h 7min

Imagine you found an advertisement in the newspaper offering a position with a one sentence application process.Would you take it?What if it was for a position where you would learn a proprietary trading system in which you would trade solely for owner of the firm?What if that man was Richard Dennis?Our next guest took that position in 1983 and it changed his life forever, for the better. He found himself with what was to become a famous title, a Turtle. He was given the opportunity to manage a million dollar account with specific rules to follow. Rules that he would learn to love and perfect.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:About the Turtles and how the unique experiment grew into the Managed Futures/CTA IndustryHow Wall Street Leaks inspired Jerry into understanding the industryHow Jerry encountered trend following for the first timeThe One Sentence culture in Richard J. Dennis’s officeHow to excel at unprecedented tests from leading tradersWhat it was like moving to Chicago to train as a TurtleWhat the Turtle training was like and the mindset provided in the trainingThe most challenging thing about Trend Following when Jerry started with Richard DennisAbout the transition from Turtle Trading to starting his own organization, Chesapeake Capital in 1998The evolution of Chesapeake’s strategy from day one after leaving Richard Dennis’s programThe early focus on diversification and adding new marketsIssues with trying to improve the original Richard DennisThe shift in investor expectations with the growth of institutional investment organizations while operating on of the largest CTA firms in the industryWhy it’s best to take an optimal loss rather than a small lossOn the meaningfulness of track records and what else investors should be encouraged to explore when choosing an investment management decision-----The advertisement Jerry responded to in 1983:Richard J. Dennis and CD commodities is accepting applications for the position of Commodity Future Trader to expand his established group of traders. Mr. Dennis and his associate will train a small group of applicants in his proprietary trading concepts. Successful candidates will then trade solely for Mr. Dennis. They will not be allowed to trade futures for themselves or others. Traders will be paid a percentage of their trading profits and will be allowed a small draw. Prior experience will be considered, but is not necessary. Applicants should send a brief resume with one sentence giving their reason for applying.Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:The Barefoot Trader (Article about Richard Dennis in Wall Street Journal)Learn more about Richard J. Dennis the founder of the Turtle programFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? –...

13 Juli 20141h 7min