Israeli Elections, & the VetBro Industrial Complex | EYES ON GEOPOLITICS

We break down Israel’s deadlocked election and coalition fight, what a possible change in government could mean for Iran policy, and the growing counterintelligence concerns around foreign influence, personnel cuts, and recent Iran-linked activity in Europe. We also discuss whether America has lost the initiative in the Middle East, the debate over restrictive rules of engagement during the War on Terror, and what lessons the U.S. military should actually take from 20 years of war.

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00:00 – Start
00:58 – Israel’s Election Ends in a Deadlock
02:18 – How Israel’s Coalition System Works
03:27 – Could Israel Be Headed for Another Election?
04:16 – Arab Parties Suddenly Hold Major Bargaining Power
05:03 – What Arab Israelis Actually Want From the Government
06:19 – Israel’s Basic Law & the Question of Equality
07:16 – Can Either Side Build a 61-Seat Coalition?
08:48 – What Would an Eisenkot Government Actually Change?
09:37 – Netanyahu vs. Eisenkot on Iran
10:08 – Jared Kushner’s Role in Middle East Policy
11:04 – Inside the U.S. Security Relationship With the Palestinians
12:06 – Netanyahu’s Relationship With Kushner
12:42 – U.S. Military Officers & Foreign Influence Concerns
14:06 – How Does This Happen Without Counterintelligence Scrutiny?
14:27 – Strava, Wearables & Modern OPSEC Failures
17:33 – What Happens When FBI Counterintelligence Teams Get Cut?
18:04 – Offensive vs. Defensive Counterintelligence
19:14 – How Technology Has Changed Counterintelligence Operations
20:32 – Cutting Personnel With a Machete Instead of a Scalpel
21:30 – Losing Mandarin Speakers Inside the Government
22:41 – Iranian-Americans & the Failure to Use Native Expertise
24:14 – Why the U.S. Struggles to Identify Real Regional Experts
24:45 – The Books Intelligence Analysts Should Actually Be Reading
26:44 – What a New Iran Analyst Should Learn First
27:18 – Why Analysts Need to Read the Other Side’s Literature
29:02 – The Ugly American & Understanding Foreign Cultures
30:00 – The RAF Fairford Plot Returns to the News
30:21 – Suspects Go on Trial in the UK
31:16 – The Wider Network Behind the Fairford Case
32:04 – Iran-Linked Operations Across Europe
32:28 – Did a New IRGC Handler Rush the Operation?
33:36 – How the UK Network Was Structured
34:18 – Has Iran Lost Too Many Experienced Intelligence Officers?
34:59 – Sometimes Just Breaching the Base Is the Victory
35:24 – What World War I German Sabotage Can Teach Us
35:57 – Immigration, Brain Drain & America’s Talent Problem
37:05 – Why the U.S. Should Keep Iranian Scientists Here
37:43 – Operation Paperclip & Recruiting Enemy Talent
38:38 – Has America Lost the Initiative in the Middle East?
39:02 – The USS Abraham Lincoln as a Symbol of Strategic Failure
39:31 – “Escalate to Deescalate” & the Failure of Policy
40:14 – The New York Times on Special Operations Podcasts
40:58 – Why The Team House Avoids the Culture-War Trap
41:52 – Did America Lose Because We “Didn’t Take the Gloves Off”?
43:00 – When Rules of Engagement Really Were Too Restrictive
44:04 – The Eight-Hour Targeting Soak
45:01 – From Extremely Loose ROE to Extremely Restrictive ROE
45:50 – Why Different Battlefields Needed Different Rules
47:05 – When a Missed Drone Strike Reset the Entire Targeting Cycle
47:34 – “Restrike Authorized”
48:04 – Why Rules of Engagement Changed During the War
48:29 – McChrystal, F3EAD & the SOCOM Targeting Model
49:00 – Jessica Lynch & Early Iraq War Training Failures
50:36 – Army vs. Marine Corps Marksmanship Training
55:47 – Are We Learning the Right Lessons From 20 Years of War?
57:13 – Jack’s Upcoming High Side Story on Sudan
58:18 – Jonathan’s Next Writing Project
59:15 – Sanctions, Pistachios, Carpets & Iranian Saffron
1:00:35 – Is “Spanish Saffron” Actually Iranian?
1:01:26 – Syrian Aleppo Pepper & Sanctions Workarounds
1:02:12 – American Insurgent & the December 1 Deadline
1:03:14 – Closing Thoughts

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