Top Traders Unplugged8 Nov 2023

GM52: The Re-Emergence of the Bond Vigilantes ft. Ed Yardeni

Ed Yardeni, President and Chief Investment Strategist at Yardeni Research joins us today to discuss the re-emergence of the bond vigilantes, a term Ed coined four decades ago. We discuss why bond investors are pushing up long-term bond yields and what are the prospects are for a debt crisis in the US. Ed outlines his view that we may see “rolling recessions” rather than a sharp economic downturn but that he has recently increased his probability of a hard landing. We examine the parallels between the current cycle and the past, particularly the 1990s and discuss whether the recent improvement can be sustained over the medium term and what it means for equity markets.

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Episode TimeStamps:

02:22 - Introduction to Ed Yardini

07:07 - Why has the economics profession got it wrong again?

11:06 - What should we feel the maximum impact of the tightening?

14:43 - Why are we seeing a change in bond yields?

19:18 - Are we spiralling into a crisis?

25:19 - The outlook for the debt crisis

29:08 - Will AI save us?

32:22 - Analysing productivity and growth

36:05 - Learning from history - what is different this time?

41:40 - The baby boom generation - inflationary or deflationary?

44:06 - China and Japan being deflationary?

45:23 - Are emerging markets benefitting from deglobalization?

47:50 - The outlook for equities

52:14 - The U.S vs the rest

53:32 - Advice for new investors

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