Top Traders Unplugged27 Dec 2023

GM54: "Weakflation" in 2024 ft. Gregory Peters

Greg Peters joins Alan Dunne in this episode for a global fixed income perspective on the evolving macro landscape. We hear why “weakflation” may be the most likely scenario for the US economy but that a the risk of recession is three times its typical level. Greg outlines what the secular shifts in the global economy such as the end of the era of secular stagnation, a stagnating China, stickier global inflation and higher return to labour, mean for the global economy and asset markets. We discuss the recent gyrations in then bond market, how the composition of demand for US Treasuries is changing and why Greg is not overly concerned about debt sustainability for the US economy. And we delve into the outlook for emerging markets and why Greg is constructive on the outlook for EM excluding China.

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Episode TimeStamps:

02:42 - Introduction to Gregory Peters

05:15 - What types of portfolios PGIM Fixed Income running?

06:28 - Peters' perspective on the state of global macro

11:44 - Peters' response to the inverted curve

15:30 - Is Peters concerned about the U.S debt?

19:36 - Japanese investors in a tough spot

22:11 - Financial repression and domestic bias

24:11 - The yield is destiny

27:28 - What range are we operating in?

28:43 - Will inflation be stickier than we expect?

33:03 - The impact of a changing globalization

35:42 - Analyzing the poor productivity numbers

38:05 - The longer term outlook of the Chinese economy

42:54 - China as a potential component in a global fixed income portfolio

44:27 - Opportunities in emerging markets

46:47 - Peters' thoughts on the central bank response function

49:13 - How would central banks respond to a worst-case scenario?

51:29 - The possibilities of recession

56:19 - Advice for other investors

57:59 - Thanks for listening

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