20VC: Why VC Returns Will Get Worse, Why LP Incentive Structures are so Broken, What is the Answer to Liquidity with No M&A or IPOs, When to Sell vs Hold Your Winners & Turning $5M into $250M with The Trade Desk | Roger Ehrenberg, Eberg Capital

20VC: Why VC Returns Will Get Worse, Why LP Incentive Structures are so Broken, What is the Answer to Liquidity with No M&A or IPOs, When to Sell vs Hold Your Winners & Turning $5M into $250M with The Trade Desk | Roger Ehrenberg, Eberg Capital

Roger Ehrenberg is a legend of the venture industry as the Founder of IA Ventures, among the most successful seed-stage venture firms of this generation, having seeded companies including Datadog (NASDAQ: DDOG), Digital Ocean (NYSE: DOCN), The Trade Desk (NASDAQ: TTD) and Wise (LSE: WISE.L). Today Roger is the Founder and Managing Partner of Eberg Capital, a pioneer in bridging the gap among sports franchises, sports betting, media and entertainment. Roger’s current sports investments include stakes in the Miami Marlins, Real Salt Lake, Alpine Racing, Betr, Commonwealth, Kero Sports, Simplebet, SlamBall, Smarkets and WagerWire.

In Today's Episode with Roger Ehrenberg We Discuss:

1. The Commoditisation of Venture and Worsening Returns:

  • Why does Roger disagree with Doug Leone that "we have moved from a boutique high margin business to a commoditised low margin industry"?
  • Why does Roger believe we will see consistently worsening returns in venture?
  • Is this influx of LP capital cyclical or is it here to stay?

2. The New LPs and The Broken Existing LP World:

  • Why does Roger think the existing incentive structure for LPs is totally broken?
  • Who are the most important new LPs entering the venture market?
  • How do sovereigns and pension funds entering venture change the industry?
  • Which players have capitalised on this new LP class best?

3. Where Does the Liquidity Come From:

  • With the closed IPO window and lack of M&A, where will liquidity come from in the next 24 months?
  • Would a Trump administration open M&A markets? Does Roger agree M&A markets are shut down?
  • When does Roger believe IPO markets will open again? Will Databricks and Stripe go out in 2024?
  • If Roger were to run a continuity fund strategy, how would he structure it? What would he do?

4. When to Sell and When to Hold:

  • How does Roger advise managers on when to sell vs when to hold?
  • How important is it for a new firm to have a company go public in the first five years?
  • What are Roger's biggest lessons from selling The Trade Desk at a $2.5BN valuation?
  • How does Roger think about managers thinking they should manage the public book of their portfolio for their LPs? What are the pros and cons?

5. Relationship to Money:

  • Do rich investors make better investors? How does investing when you have a lot of cash already change your mindset around investing and exiting?
  • How does Roger analyse his relationship to money today?
  • What have been the single biggest needle movers in his wealth journey? How did it feel when he made a $6M bonus?

6. The Secrets to Parenthood and Marriage:

  • What does it mean to be a great father for Roger?
  • How does Roger think about bringing his children up with the same level of hunger and ambition, despite being brought up with such wealth?
  • What are Roger's two biggest lessons on the secret to a great marriage?

Avsnitt(1356)

20Product: Why Most CPOs are Bad | Why You Do Not Need PMs in a World of AI | Why the Design Stage is Dead and How to Use Vibe Coding to Replace It | The Three Roles All Founders End Up Firing on Repeat with Jason James @ Tezi

20Product: Why Most CPOs are Bad | Why You Do Not Need PMs in a World of AI | Why the Design Stage is Dead and How to Use Vibe Coding to Replace It | The Three Roles All Founders End Up Firing on Repeat with Jason James @ Tezi

Jason James is the Co-Founder of Tezi and one of the leading product minds in the valley. Prior to Tezi, Jason was the VP Product at Instacart and before that was Head of Product and Design at Thumbtack.  AGENDA: 00:00 Product lessons scaling Instacart to $40B – what really moves the needle 02:15 Why “quick optimizations” won’t build billion-dollar products 04:30 MVPs are dead? How AI is reshaping product development 07:00 Do startups even need PMs anymore in the age of AI? 11:30 The biggest product mistake Jason made building Tezi 16:30 Why most hiring managers fail at recruiting 20:00 The resume trap: how to spot if someone was just “on the elevator up” 26:00 The three roles founders always end up firing 28:00 Are most CPOs actually terrible? 36:30 The myth of startup “culture” – why growth is the only thing that matters 43:00 Did DoorDash actually beat Instacart? The inside take 48:00 Fundraising secrets founders never realize until it’s too late

29 Aug 53min

20VC: Anthropic's $10BN Round | Klarna's IPO Broken Down | Inside a16z's 72 Deal Seed Investment Machine | Martin Casado: Is Consensus Investing the Only Game | Why Satya is Chatting S*** on SaaS Apps Disappearing featuring Marc Benioff

20VC: Anthropic's $10BN Round | Klarna's IPO Broken Down | Inside a16z's 72 Deal Seed Investment Machine | Martin Casado: Is Consensus Investing the Only Game | Why Satya is Chatting S*** on SaaS Apps Disappearing featuring Marc Benioff

AGENDA: ​​00:00 – Marc Benioff vs Snowflake, Databricks & Palantir: Who Wins the Data Cloud War? 05:10 – Does Benioff Feel The Need to Buy AI Talent Like Zuck Is? 09:00 – What Salesforce has Learned From Palantir on Forward Deployed Engineers? 18:00 – Will SaaS apps disappear in an AI world? Why Satya is Chatting S*** 23:40 – Are SDRs really screwed by AI… or just evolving? 26:10 – Benioff on Who Wins: OpenAI or Anthropic? 30:00 – Nat Friedman reports to Alex Wang: Genius move or career downgrade? 34:00 – Anthropic’s $10B round: Have we hit peak AI hype? 47:00 – Klarna’s wild ride: From $45B to $6B to IPO at $15B 55:00 – Inside a16z’s seed machine: 72 bets vs Sequoia’s 27 57:45 – Martìn Casado: Is consensus investing dangerous—or the only game? 01:05:00 – The big lesson: consensus, contrarian, and why investing is harder than ever

28 Aug 1h 11min

20VC: Do Margins Matter in AI? | Is Defensibility Gone For Good? | Is Vertical SaaS Dead in a World of AI | What SaaS Rules Are BS and No Longer Apply in a World of AI | The Future of Venture: Why Chanel vs Walmart is BS with Byron Deeter

20VC: Do Margins Matter in AI? | Is Defensibility Gone For Good? | Is Vertical SaaS Dead in a World of AI | What SaaS Rules Are BS and No Longer Apply in a World of AI | The Future of Venture: Why Chanel vs Walmart is BS with Byron Deeter

Byron Deeter is a Partner at Bessemer Venture Partners, and one of the most renowned SaaS investors. Byron has led 19 unicorn investments, including IPO successes like ServiceTitan, Procore, Twilio, Box, Gainsight, Intercom, DocuSign, SendGrid. His portfolio includes eight companies that have gone public. Insane.  Agenda: 00:00 – Why are the stakes in AI higher than ever before? 05:20 – Is defensibility in AI gone for good? 07:40 – Do margins even matter when backing the next Anthropic or Perplexity? 09:50 – How does Byron think about future dilution when investing in AI today? 12:10 – With 40% of venture money going to 10 deals, is there any point investing elsewhere? 13:40 – Is vertical SaaS dead? Is there any point when the large players can own it? 18:00 – Will AI shift from the tech budget to the human labor budget and unlock trillions? 21:10 – Are we entering the era of billion-dollar businesses built by 10 people? 25:20 – Is treble-treble-double-double now too slow for AI companies? 33:10 – In today’s AI gold rush, is it better to scream the loudest or just build the best product? 41:10 – What specific growth rates are best in class, good and not good enough today?  55:00 – Is venture now just a game of scale — Chanel vs. Walmart?

25 Aug 1h 21min

20VC: Databricks at $100BN | Chamath’s SPAC Revival: Peak Mania? | OpenAI Staff Cash Out Billions & Sam Altman Will Spend Trillions | CoreWeave’s $11B Debt Bet & Nubank’s $2.5B Profit Shocker

20VC: Databricks at $100BN | Chamath’s SPAC Revival: Peak Mania? | OpenAI Staff Cash Out Billions & Sam Altman Will Spend Trillions | CoreWeave’s $11B Debt Bet & Nubank’s $2.5B Profit Shocker

Agenda: 00:00 – Databricks hits $100B: Bubble or just the beginning? 03:15 – Is Databricks actually undervalued at 25x revenue? 07:40 – Are we on the verge of the biggest IPO wave ever? 11:30 – Can Andreessen’s Databricks bet return $30B+? 18:10 – Who really gets rich when mega-unicorns IPO? 19:30 – Is the return of Chamath’s SPACs the ultimate bubble signal? 28:00 – Should OpenAI staff be cashing out billions in secondaries? 33:30 – Founder raises $130M… then walks away. Is this the new normal? 36:30 – Nubank’s $2.5B profit: The best FinTech in the world? 48:00 – On Running at $15B: Can consumer brands still be VC-backed rockets? 52:00 – CoreWeave takes on $11B in debt: smart bet or ticking time bomb? 1:11:00 – Will AI spend really hit trillions—or is it all hype?

21 Aug 1h 27min

20VC: Lovable CEO Anton Osika on $120M in ARR in 7 Months | The Honest Truth About Defensibility and Unit Economics for AI Startups | The State of Foundation Models: Long Grok, Short OpenAI, Why | Replit vs Lovable vs Bolt: What Happens

20VC: Lovable CEO Anton Osika on $120M in ARR in 7 Months | The Honest Truth About Defensibility and Unit Economics for AI Startups | The State of Foundation Models: Long Grok, Short OpenAI, Why | Replit vs Lovable vs Bolt: What Happens

Anton Osika is the Co-Founder and CEO @ Lovable, the fastest growing company on the planet. In just 7 months, they have scaled from $0 to $120M in ARR. They have raised over $200M in funding from some of the best including Accel, Creandum and 20VC. Their latest round priced the company at a whopping $2BN.  Agenda for Today: 00:00 – Is AI an Arms Race… Or Just a Talent War? 03:45 – How Does Anton Compete with Zuck’s $100M Packages for Talent 07:30 – Founder Mode vs. Structure: Can Chaos Scale? 10:15 – The Brutal Truth About Defensibility in AI Startups 13:20 – Unit Economics: Are AI Companies Doomed to Bleed Cash? 17:00 – GPT-5: Game-Changer or Overhyped Disappointment? 20:10 – How Lovable Hit $100M ARR in Just 7 Months? 25:15 – Replit, Figma, Bolt: Which Competitor is the Best? 30:00 – The Security Bombshells No One Talks About 36:40 – Should Anyone Still Study Computer Science? 40:30 – Work-Life Balance Is Dead: Inside Anton’s 10x Culture 56:00 – OpenAI, Anthropic, or Grok: Who Wins the AI Wars?

18 Aug 1h 8min

20VC: 15 Term Sheets in 7 Days and Choosing Benchmark | Harvey vs Legora: Who Wins Legal and How to Play When You Have $600M Less Funding | Are AI Models Plateauing Today | Building a 9-9-6 Culture From Stockholm with Max Junestrand

20VC: 15 Term Sheets in 7 Days and Choosing Benchmark | Harvey vs Legora: Who Wins Legal and How to Play When You Have $600M Less Funding | Are AI Models Plateauing Today | Building a 9-9-6 Culture From Stockholm with Max Junestrand

Max Junestrand is the Co-Founder and CEO @ Legora, the collaborative AI powering the next generation of lawyers. Now this is an insane story for many reasons; first, Max turned down a multi-million dollar career in gaming to build Legora. Second, he has raised from the best of the best including Benchmark and IVP. Third, he has scaled the firm with 1/6th of the capital of his closest competitor, Harvey have raised a reported $800M while Legora have raised just $120M.  Agenda: 00:03 – From Pro Gamer to AI Founder: How World of Warcraft Shaped Max’s Mindset 04:58 – The $5–10M Gaming Career He Walked Away From 07:55 – Are AI Models Plateauing… or Just Getting Started? 10:02 – Swarms of LLMs: The 100x Cost Bet That Could Change Legal Forever 12:00 – Partnering With the Lawyers You’re “Killing” 15:00 – How He Cracked Sweden’s Hardest-to-Enter Law Firm 21:45 – The $500K Coffee That Saved the Company at YC 30:00 – Closing 15 Term Sheets in 7 Days – Why Benchmark Won 36:00 – Beating a $5BN Rival With a Fraction of the Funding 53:50 – Building a Cult Culture: The 9-9-6 Mentality in Europe

15 Aug 1h 20min

20VC: GPT5: Sam Altman's Masterplan or a Gift To Anthropic | Palantir & Shopify Crush Earnings | Monday & Datadog Perform But Hit Hard by Wall St | Should Perplexity Buy Chrome for $34.5BN |

20VC: GPT5: Sam Altman's Masterplan or a Gift To Anthropic | Palantir & Shopify Crush Earnings | Monday & Datadog Perform But Hit Hard by Wall St | Should Perplexity Buy Chrome for $34.5BN |

AGENDA: 00:04 – Was GPT-5 the Biggest AI Letdown Yet? 00:17 – Is OpenAI’s Real Target Anthropic’s $6B Revenue? 00:22 – Why Anthropic Might Secretly Be Worried 00:28 – The Hidden Business Strategy Behind OpenAI’s “Underwhelming” Launch 00:32 – Should Perplexity Really Try to Buy Chrome for $34.5B? 00:35 – The $3B N8N Deal: Genius Bet or Bubble FOMO? 00:38 – Why Datadog’s Best Quarter Ever Still Tanked the Stock 00:44 – Palantir’s 50% Growth at Scale – Can It Last? Is Palantir Overpriced? 00:53 – Shopify’s Ruthless Path to 91% Revenue Growth With 30% Fewer Staff 01:01 – Are Seed and Series A Valuations Now at Dangerous Highs? 01:06 – What Does The Highest Levels of Capital Concentration Mean For Early Stage Founders? 01:15 – Could Palantir Hit a $2 Trillion Market Cap by 2030?

14 Aug 1h 22min

20VC: Figma, Scale, Wiz: Inside Index's Decacorn Factory | Decision-Making, Investment Process, Biggest Lessons, Biggest Misses | Why Gross Margin is a Fallacy at Seed | Never Turn Down a Deal on Price with Martin Mignot, Partner @ Index Ventures

20VC: Figma, Scale, Wiz: Inside Index's Decacorn Factory | Decision-Making, Investment Process, Biggest Lessons, Biggest Misses | Why Gross Margin is a Fallacy at Seed | Never Turn Down a Deal on Price with Martin Mignot, Partner @ Index Ventures

Martin Mignot is a Partner at Index Ventures, the best-performing fund in the world right now. In the last three months, they have sold Wiz for $ 32 billion, sold Scale for $14.9 billion, and IPO'd Figma as the largest investor. In addition to this, they are the largest or second-largest shareholders in Roblox, Revolut, Adyen and Datadog.  Agenda for Today: 00:00 – Why Gross Margin is the Biggest Sin in the Early Days 04:50 – Why Most People Shouldn’t Become VCs 07:40 – Why it is BS to Suggest the Future of VC is Boutique vs Mega Fund 09:10 – Do Multi-Stage Funds Really Give a S*** About Seed 13:50 – The Founder Trait That Trumps Market Size Every Time 18:45 – How Spotify Still Haunts Index Ventures & What They Learn From It? 28:50 – The Brutal Truth About European vs. U.S. Founders 34:20 – The Case for a European AI Giant (and Who Might Build It) 40:50 – The Return of the 7-Day Founder Work Week 52:10 – Biggest Lessons from Leading Revolut’s Series A 56:40 – Betting Against Nick Storonsky? Don’t. 1:03:10 – The One Competitor Index Ventures Admires

11 Aug 1h 19min

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