SI288: Why Investors are Under-Allocating to Trend Following? ft. Alan Dunne

Our next guest was a philosophy major and a magician before he ever considered trading in the stock market. In Part 1 of our talk, he describes how philosophy and psychology determine his firm’s decisions and the story of how he started trading in a small town in Pennsylvania.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:On the 20th Anniversary of Scott’s firm, he looks back on how it all started.Scott’s life as a magician and how the principals of magic influences his perspective on trading and the market.How he became a philosophy major and how he applies philosophy to trading and everything his firm does.How he started trading in the market, getting a group of his college friends to take out cash advances on their credit cards and investing it.The Austrian perspective on economics that his college was well known for.How he educated himself in futures trading and invested long before he ever met another trader.Scott’s initial lessons learned from trading in the stock market; how he lost almost all of his capital in one day and had the first sleepless night of his life.How he made the mistake of investing in coffee and cocoa in the late 1980s and what he learned from that experience.How he started his first firm in 1989.How Scott traded while living in rural Western Pennsylvania.How a philosophy major with no connections to the financial world used his network to find a mentor.The story of Scott becoming a principal at one of the biggest short-term CTAs in the world.The story of Dominion Capital Management, which he started in 1994 by moving to Chicago.Why he is based in Traverse City, Michigan.How his firm is a bit different and why they don’t have any mathematicians or scientists on their team.-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Learn about the Square of Opposition that Scott explains in the episode.In Scott’s first job at a firm, the company hired people belonging to Mensa.Learn about how trading was conducted and firms operated before the use of personal computers and the Internet. Scott’s firm had a VAX computer.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend...

1 Sep 20141h 22min

Welcome back to the second part of our interview with Scot Billington of Covenant Capital Management.In this episode, Scot delves into the practice of trend following and why it is a great model to follow. He also discusses tips for beginning traders and investors, and advice for those who wants to start a firm. Thank you for listening to Part 2 of our conversation with Scot Billington.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:The story of Scot’s childhood obsession with mathematically based, but unknown future outcomes.The discipline required to follow a mathematical model.The advantages of trend-following and why the media reports that “Trend Following is Dead” every few years.Scot’s philosophy on position sizing.How every sector in the market is highly correlated.Getting comfortable with taking risks: they exist and it is impossible to avoid them.The Barbell strategy: have very little money at risk, but the money that is at risk is in the most aggressive things that it can be.The biggest mistake that allocators make.How Scot conducts research for Covenant Capital.Why he is based in Nashville and how he overcomes the challenge of asking investors to buy into the long time-frame.Finding your niche as a boutique firm.Advice for managers wanting to start firms today.-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Scot mentions how the media often announces the death of trend following. Here’s an article on the subject from Futures Magazine.Learn about the Barbell Trading Strategy.See 10 Fallacies when Selecting CTAs.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share...

28 Aug 20141h 8min

Our next guest takes a mechanical, long-term trend approach to trading to a new level, and you’ll find out why he thinks it is the better option in this episode. He started Covenant Capital with his business partner in 1999 and has grown it into a profitable boutique firm. But in early 2002 after they ended the previous year down 20%, they really had to grind it out and stick to their guns which ultimately paid off in a big way.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:How Scot started his firm, doing the testing by hand.The difference between a discretionary model and a mechanical model and why Scot chose a mechanical one.How he met his business partner Brince Wilford and started with 3 accounts in 1999.How narrative bias can affect a trader’s decisions.How the firm got through a year that ended with them down 20%.What made Scot believe in his model and stick to his guns.The offerings that the firm currently has, including the differences in the trading models.The pitfalls of investing in shorter term models and not allowing managers to see a full cycles with markets.Why most allocators and investors are chasing 24-month returns on stocks and why that may not be the right approach.About different types of CTA firms, including boutiques, battleships, emerging, and experimental.What to look for in a CTA.How to get investors to share the long-term horizon with his firm when certain markets do very well in the short term.-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:An article on Covenant and Scot Billington in Futures Magazine.Check out Discretionary vs System Trading.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/reviewttu" rel="noopener

25 Aug 20141h 23min

Welcome back to the second part of our interview.In this episode we dive into the negative effect of greed on the market. Anders Lindell again shows his depth of knowledge as he elaborates on the nature of irrationality though the ages and how our markets today, really are rather stretched. This is a powerful episode, I really do hope you will enjoy it.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:How the IPM model profited by choosing to position against the carry frenzy in Japanese Yen during late 2008Risk factor analysis when selecting model attributesWhat the more reliable indicator in the global economy isHow their trading model works on overall, daily basis“Stop-Loss” Positioning in the IPM strategyWhere IPM identifies value traps and optimizes their exposure to itThe average length of trades at IPMWhat drives the relationships that Anders explores to build models aroundIf Correlations structure matters when IPM decides on risk overlay to make market decisionsWhy timing can be the largest challenge for their strategyHow Anders defines risk and how IPM controls the model and expected riskThe biggest fear Anders have in regards to unexpected market effectsWhat is expected in regards to drawdowns in the IPM Global Macro StrategyHow to convey the needed confidence to investors during drawdownsRisk Management/Risk Control model rebuildingHow Anders Lindell identifies research processes which will over engineer and cause return issuesSuccession planning as Anders sees it for IPM – Perception and VisionThe challenges for IPM and how overcoming them has helped to make them strongerWhat Anders would suggest for investors to focus onWhat it takes to be a great hedge fund manager in today’s economy-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or <a...

21 Aug 20141h 13min

Our next guest turned a challenging market into an opportunity to transform his strategy and build something substantial.Welcome back to another episode of Top Traders Unplugged. Today we have the former CEO, now Chairman of Informed Portfolio Management on to discuss the road to formation of his firm, their Systematic Global Macro strategy, their unique approach to investor interaction and much much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:The relevance of controlling production at paper and pulp mills while Anders was a developing manHis history during his early days at JP bank as an analystThe impact of the shifts in the fixed income markets of the early 1990’s which inspired a new strategyThe strategic focus that was the starting point for the formation of IPMWho Anders learned from early on and who helped him cultivate a career in the hedge fund industryHow to find and retain talent and the entrepreneurial spirit drives in house management decisionsHow IPM as an organizations manages the in house operationsHow Anders hopes to see their potential realized in terms of double or tripling their AUM for future marketsWhat Anders looks for when spotting talent for new team membersIdeas for incentivizing team members to appreciate their careersThe long term view of IPM’s track record and how to evaluate itMore on the objective of the strategy of IPM and the environment in which it’s been designed to work wellWhy the opportunities and volatility in emerging market equity trades is decompressing globallyThe meaning of global macro and how they structured all the information into a systematic trading approachHow the IPM model differentiates it’s self from discretionary trading models and how they run themThe role of fundamental information in identifying market strategies-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/reviewttu" rel="noopener noreferrer"...

18 Aug 20141h 12min

Did you know that a meditation practice can help you be a better investor?In this episode we discuss our common lessons that we ask all Top Traders, but we dive deep into why Nigol thinks differently about CTA issues. Growing up in war-torn Lebanon shifts the filters he uses to see the markets. We all have filters but in this episode you will learn what perspective he takes on the markets that may, or may not, support his market philosophy.Welcome back to the second half of our interview with Nigol Koulajian.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:How growing up in war torn Lebanon influences the way Nigol filters market decisionsThe challenging nature of a market injected with federal liquidityNigol’s strategies for selecting position sizingDrawdown expectations of Quest PartnersHow Quest works to maintain a balance in the working environment and how busy the team staysHow Nigol manages emotional turmoil of drawdowns and how he projects this calmness upon his investorsThe few things that Nigol predicts would shake their strategyHow to listen to clients and use their advice in a way that serves them, even if you don’t implement exactly what they’re sayingWhy mathematician optimization can adversely effect the strength of your CTA strategyHow Nigol expects to know if a model is working or notThe importance of using math as little as possible despite the systematic approach to tradingA fascinating perspective on why the CTA industry AUM has shifted to EuropeThe most important question investors should be asking: “How to price tail risk.”What it takes to build a firm and become the next QuestLearn all about Nigol’s daily meditation practice which he credits as his top personal attribute to becoming a great traderThe most challenging thing about being a CTA for Nigol (A: Fishing in a very small pond)Nigol’s biggest failure which occurred in 2009-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on <a...

14 Aug 20141h 13min

Want to build a computer that makes money?Quest Partners LLC has a long, robust track record with their systematic trading approach.They utilize a different strategies from many of their peers and have diversified their product range to include equity programs both hedge and long only.At the core of it all is their philosophy on focusing on what investors need. They provide solutions for investors rather than a purist strategy.Leading the way is our next guest on Top Traders Unplugged, Nigol Koulajian.In This Episode, You’ll Learn:How growing up Armenian provides a filter for the way Nigol perceives the marketsHis experience at Anderson Consulting and how he ended up working with Solomon Brothers by chanceWhy Nigol spend time at Colombia Business School programming and building modelsWhat Nigol thinks of Value at RiskHow Nigol found himself as a risk arbitrage manager despite his passion for CTA strategiesHow Nigol navigated beneficial detours before finally partnering to co-found Enterprise Asset Management in 1994About the founding and growth of Quest Partners from inceptions in 2001 to +760$ million in 2014The dangers of an increased correlation between alternative strategies designed to protect against trouble in traditional investment and the traditional asset classes themselvesLearn about self reinforcing feedback loop and how managers of growing AUM are forced to allocate to factors that are doing well (but perhaps doing well by chance)About the tight, automated business infrastructure of Quest Financial PartnersAbout the shift in volatility expansion and how to measure itResources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Investors Business Daily – The finance newspaper which inspired Nigol in the early days3 Research Pieces from Quest that specifically examine factor drifts that could effect the returns of CTAsLearn about Sharpe RatioA specific trading model that trades the S&P and 30Y Bonds if it’s down 3 days in a row, with a stop-loss and profit target (Full testing and code in the link).BTOP50 – the index that seeks to replicate the overall composition of the managed futures industry with regard to trading style and overall market exposureLearn about David Harding, one of the largest alternative investment managers in the worldRead this interesting article about transcendental meditation and NigolNigol’s Foundation to promote studies on eastern religious philosophies and YogaFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, <a...

11 Aug 20141h 9min

How would it feel to identify trades no one else you know is looking for?Our guest is back and this interview is all about carry trades, mean reverting environments, merger arbitrage, volatility arbitrage, tail hedges and how to become the best trader possible. It’s quite likely there is something in this interview which will help propel you forward as a hedge fund manager or in your research of managers.Welcome back to the second part of our interview with Chief Excutive Officer of Future Value Capital, Roman Lutz.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:Simple Models used by Future Value Capital to implement trend followingHow they utilize carry tradesThe third area of models: Tail HedgesLearn about how to carry potentially large value variance swaps while keeping the premium for holding them downWhere the variance exchange swaps derive from whether from OTC with counterparts or constructed using exchange listed productsLearn about Credit Support Annex (CSA)Risk management procedures at Future Value CapitalThe purpose for tactical asset allocation meetings and the decisions that are madeThe common performance drivers and if there is a dominant part of the portfolio that is responsible for the performanceHow Roman translates the complex trading strategy of Future Value Capital to investorsHow Future Value Capital implements trades and why they consider it a key strength of their programHow much AUM would be optimal running the program or if the potential is unlimitedHow to create certainty around the risk Future Value Capital holds and how they define that riskWhat Roman Lutz considers to be one of the riskiest thing that could happen in the financial systemWhat to expect in terms of returns and drawdown when investing in Future Value CapitalHow to realize when a model is no longer workingPersonal habits that contribute to Roman’s success in managing a hedge fund-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review...

7 Aug 20141h 1min