036: Michael Bryant discusses automatic strategy creation, exploiting trade dependency and techniques to trading the equity curve.

036: Michael Bryant discusses automatic strategy creation, exploiting trade dependency and techniques to trading the equity curve.

Creating robust trading strategies can be a difficult task, sometimes taking months or even years to generate something you find acceptable. Even then, once you start trading it live there is no guarantee it’ll work in the future.

With strategy creation being such an involved process at times, how would you like it if you could just tell the computer the results you wanted and let it figure out the trading rules? Is it actually possible to create robust trading strategies that way?

In this episode Michael Bryant from Adaptrade talks to us about automatic code generation, methods to exploit trade dependency and techniques to trade the equity curve.

Michael has been trading the markets since 1994, providing trading systems for the futures markets and even managing money as a CTA.

He is founder of Adaptrade, a company which provides innovative software tools for individual and professional traders.

In this episode we discuss
  • The traditional approach to creating trading systems and issues caused by this approach
  • Potential areas of improvement in traditional approaches to system development
  • Evolution of the strategy creation process
  • Genetic programming and optimisation and it’s use in trading strategy creation
  • The advantages of automatic code generation
  • Measuring and reducing over-fitting when using genetic optimisation techniques
  • Addressing concerns with removing human logic from the strategy development process
  • Degrees of freedom and the impact if can have on strategy results
  • Trade dependency, how to detect it and methods to exploit it
  • Trading the equity curve based on trade dependency and trading style
  • Which stage of the strategy creation process to include position sizing
  • Common position sizing mistakes traders make

Disclaimer:
Trading in the financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. All content produced by Better System Trader is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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193: “Innovation as a trading edge” – Dr Brett Steenbarger

193: “Innovation as a trading edge” – Dr Brett Steenbarger

Trader, author and performance coach Dr Brett Steenbarger discusses how traders can get an edge by applying innovation to their trading, including: The 2 levels of improvements traders can make, Why traders resist innovation and how to address hesitation to change, How to innovate by looking at what we do well, Why NOT trading can be an innovation for traders, Impacts of lifestyle and mindset on innovation, Why you should “limit your search” when looking for edges, The 2 qualities most shared amongst successful traders Plus, odds and backtesting market patterns, skill vs luck, testing in relevant market regimes, what successful traders focus on and much more!   Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. All content produced by Better System Trader is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

14 Juli 202152min

192: “Predicting profitability using machine learning” – Ernie Chan

192: “Predicting profitability using machine learning” – Ernie Chan

Quant trader Ernie Chan from PredictNow.ai joins us to discuss how to predict the profitability of trades using machine learning, including: Unconditional probability and the problem with win% in backtest reports, Why “conditional probability” is much more useful for a trader and how to apply conditional probabilities to capital allocation, Why you should use Machine Learning for risk management and capital allocation only (and not for building trading strategies), Why feature selection and feature importance ranking are so valuable, Plus, the best ML techniques for prediction, how simple should trading strategies be, insights from cluster-based feature selection, do these techniques really work, ML as a crystal ball and much more!   Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. All content produced by Better System Trader is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

15 Juni 202154min

191: Combining Algos using State-Based Market Design – Richard Metzger

191: Combining Algos using State-Based Market Design – Richard Metzger

Richard Metzger from Quantsys.net joins us to discuss how to combine algos using state-based market design techniques for more consistent trading performance, including: Why it's important to be sceptical of your algos, The main causes of poor algo performance and how state-based market design can address these issues, How to define market states into "buckets" and why you should keep them simple, Combining state-based algos to create a system, plus Adjusting inputs for market states, combining strategies in Tradestation, market states vs regime filters, and much more!   Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. All content produced by Better System Trader is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

9 Juni 20211h

190: Performing like a world champion even under stress and uncertainty – Mandi Pour Rafsendjani

190: Performing like a world champion even under stress and uncertainty – Mandi Pour Rafsendjani

Mandi Pour Rafsendjani from High Performance Trading joins us to discuss tips and techniques to perform like a world champion, even under times of stress and uncertainty, including: The 2 types of fears that lead to stress in trading, Self-image and accelerating trading performance, The 3 different areas to look at when dealing with stress, "Protective Pessimism" and positive vs negative thinking, The "3M's" to check when a strategy stops working, The "Queens Gambit" strategy to performance improvement, plus How to recover from larger drawdowns, overtrading, Wim Hof and yoga, self-talk, mindset and why the market is like an “all you can eat” buffet you can keep going back to – yum!   Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. All content produced by Better System Trader is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

2 Juni 20211h 8min

189: Managing multiple trading strategies – David Bean

189: Managing multiple trading strategies – David Bean

David Bean from Capstone Trading Systems joins us to share tips and techniques to manage multiple trading strategies, including: When to start trading a strategy live (the answer may not be what you think!), Why you should learn to love “ugly equity curves”, Watching the markets for trading ideas, Identifying patterns and cycles in portfolio drawdown, Why you should consider correlation based on methodology instead of typical correlation measurements, plus Patterns vs optimization, single idea strategies, market truths, retesting failed patterns, low frequency trading strategies and much more.   Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. All content produced by Better System Trader is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

26 Maj 20211h 6min

188: “Why trading can be so challenging (and what to do about it)” – Adam Grimes

188: “Why trading can be so challenging (and what to do about it)” – Adam Grimes

Adam Grimes from Talon Advisors discusses why trading can be so challenging and what to do about it, including: Why it can be so hard to learn from the markets, The dangers of doing stupid things in the markets that generate a good outcome, Random price movements and finding more predictable moments, Why having success outside of the markets doesn’t guarantee you’ll be a good trader, Trading psychology and interacting with randomness, Adapting to uncertainty and mispricing risk, Deliberate practise, Algo vs discretionary trading, when to stop trading a system, new events, out of sample date, how far to backtest and forward test before going live and much more.   Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. All content produced by Better System Trader is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

12 Maj 20211h 15min

187: “How to spot a trading scam” – Kevin Davey

187: “How to spot a trading scam” – Kevin Davey

Algorithmic trader Kevin Davey discusses the sneaky tactics trading scammers use to trick people and how you can spot a fraud and protect yourself, including: How to check if testimonials are real, Some simple ways to tell if a trader really is trading live as they claim, How to spot fake trading strategies, Trading gurus who report unrealistic returns and flaunt fake wealth, Websites you can use to check if trading educators are scammers, Why teach if you can trade, Fake trendlines and cherry-picked examples for books, Plus, Paypal refunds, money back guarantees, audited trading records, realistic rates of return, reputable trading educators, the old hedge fund trader/caravan park scam, and much more.   Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. All content produced by Better System Trader is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

5 Maj 20211h 11min

186: “Breaking the rules for higher returns” – Scott Welsh

186: “Breaking the rules for higher returns” – Scott Welsh

World Cup Trading Championship runner-up Scott Welsh joins us to discuss how "breaking the rules" and doing the opposite of "traditional" trading approaches can lead to higher returns, including: "Burning the ships" and how limiting beliefs are hurting traders, Why traders should "start from the end" and work backwards, Why it's good to see losing in your trading, The 80/20 rule and why "getting the star" beats diversification, How to achieve real-life trading that’s better than the backtest, Selection bias - is it really so bad? Why you should say “screw you” to people who tell you that you can’t do it, Plus, doing the opposite to conventional trading wisdom, breaking the rules with indicators, strategies that never break, trading platforms, beating buy and hold, small profit targets, and much more.   Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. All content produced by Better System Trader is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

28 Apr 20211h 3min

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