212: Trading Triumphs - Brent Penfold's Journey to Success

Confidence is a powerful thing – when people have it they can do some pretty amazing things, but on the opposite side, a lack of confidence can be debilitating too, and for traders it can have some similar effects, especially when the performance of a strategy starts to suffer and a trader has money on the line. So, what can we do about this? How can we have more confidence in the strategies that we build and trade? Confidence that we’ve built strategies that are robust. Confidence to continue trading strategies during the periods when strategy performance may be struggling. Our special guest for this episode is Adrian Reid from Enlightened Stock Trading, and in our chat Adrian is going to enlighten us on building trading strategies that we can have confidence in. We’re not just going to talk about trading psychology here, but Adrian will be sharing practical aspects of system design and validation, that can give us more confidence in the strategies that we create and trade live. Some of the things you’ll discover in my chat with Adrian are: The 5 key areas traders must address to build confidence in a trading system, Significance testing - why it’s important to strip a strategy down to just the core components and how to determine which components are really driving performance, Why the transition from backtesting a strategy to trading it live can be a difficult and uncertain one, and the preparation steps you need to take to make the transition smooth, How a technique called ‘start-date stepping’ can provide valuable insights into how a strategy could really perform in live trading, Plus, performance profiling across market conditions, sensitivity testing, why traders lose discipline, testing strategy rules in reverse, and much more.   Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. All content produced by Better System Trader is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

12 Maj 201855min

Predictive modelling is used in many aspects of our lives today.. in the banking and insurance industries to assess the risks and behaviours of customers… in marketing to anticipate customer purchasing behaviours… in meteorology to forecast the weather… in fact there are too many applications to list here but predictive modelling has the potential to be applied pretty much anywhere, even in the markets. Now you may be saying ‘wait, I’m not in the business of predicting, my trading is all reactive, I don’t predict, I just follow the markets’. I’m not going to go into that argument today but before you make any decisions or judgements about this episode I invite you to take a listen because we discuss the predictability of indicators, and some of the things you’ll hear in our chat about indicators are very interesting, no matter how you use them in your own trading. Our guest for this episode is John MacLeod. John has a background in using Predictive Modelling, working as a consultant to develop predictive models in consumer banking and mass marketing, and has applied this expertise to the stockmarkets as well. Some of the things you’ll discover in my chat with John are: Predictive modelling – what it is and how can it be used in trading to select stocks that may be setup for a big move, Using indicators as predictors and 3 major conclusions John has made by analyzing the predictability of 160 indicators – these results may surprise you! The accuracy of predictive modelling, which factors can impact accuracy and the easiest time periods to produce high accuracy predictions, How data derived from indicators can actually be more effective as predictors then the indicators themselves, Plus much more.   Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. All content produced by Better System Trader is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

29 Apr 201843min

I think it’s pretty safe to say we’ve had some interesting times in the markets so far this year. There has been an increase in uncertainty, higher volatility and even outside of the markets there have been a number of events that seem to be impacting the markets. Some traders may be seeing the current market environment as riskier than it has been in the recent past, while other traders may be enjoying the increased opportunity, but whichever way you look at it, there is something that all traders need to consider if they want to last a long time in this business, and that is how to protect capital through proper risk management. The guest on the show this episode is risk management expert Aaron Brown, who has worked for JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley and even spent 10 years as risk manager for quant based hedge fund AQR. In our chat today we’re going to cover some interesting and practical aspects of Risk and Risk Management, and how we can plan for and protect ourselves, which you may find incredibly timely given recent market developments. Some of the things you’ll discover in my chat with Aaron are: The biggest misconception about risk and how traders should really be looking at risk instead, Why low volatility environments can be riskier than high volatility environments, One of the biggest risks to the markets that can impact everyone and can be hard to measure and how to plan for it, How traders should approach drawdown management, Why correlations are ‘mythical’ and the right way to think about financial markets, Risks in the markets today   Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. All content produced by Better System Trader is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

15 Apr 201854min

One of the biggest issues we have as systematic and algorithmic traders is that the markets are dynamic and constantly changing, however its quite common to build trading strategies that are static and are designed to take advantage of an optimal set of conditions which don’t actually last very long, if at all. This can cause periods of good and poor performance as trading strategies fall in and out of sync with the markets, so it makes logical sense to try including some adaptive elements into trading strategies to help them adjust better to the markets as they change. Our guest for this episode is Jane Fox, aka Trader Janie. Jane runs the website Quantitrader, and is here to share some of the techniques she uses to add  dynamic abilities to her trading strategies, plus we discuss some other important topics too, including: The top 3 components of trading strategies and how adding adaptability to these components can improve a trading strategy, Why static stop losses could be hurting your trading performance and some techniques Janie uses to overcome these issues, How a ‘circuit breaker’ can save your trading account when things turn ugly, A dynamic position sizing technique Jane uses to increase returns while also reducing drawdowns, Plus a whole lot more so let’s get started with my chat with Trader Janie.   Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. All content produced by Better System Trader is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

1 Apr 201837min

The discovery of DNA as well as the understanding of its function and structure may be one of the most important discoveries of the last century. As researchers continue to unlock its secrets, the applications to the scientific, medical, agricultural and forensics fields has been enormous. From enabling the breeding of animals and crops that are better resistant to disease, to being able to accurately identify criminals and victims, and even to detect diseases early on and create breakthrough treatments for diseases that were previously considered lethal, DNA research is having a huge effect on mankind. But just as scientists are getting a better understanding of DNA and it’s potential applications, can traders apply the same to the markets? One of the topics we discuss in this podcast episode is the 'DNA approach’ to trading. What is it, how can we understand it and what are the benefits? To discuss this topic plus a number of others, we're joined by Bruce Vanstone from Vanstone Trading. Bruce is a trader, consultant and university lecturer in Computational Finance and Big Data. He’s published a number of research papers and trading systems, and presented material at a number of non-academic conferences. He also consults to a boutique funds management business, trading personally and at a larger fund management level. In our chat with Bruce you’ll discover: The 'DNA approach' to trading and why you need to understand it, How to add another layer of logic over a strategy to identify the best trading conditions, Why it’s important to have trading strategies with academic credibility, How a simple change in timeframe can increase returns and reduce drawdowns, The common ‘trap’ strategy creators fall into when adjusting strategies without even realising it, Plus much more. Let’s head on over to my chat with Bruce.   Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. All content produced by Better System Trader is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

18 Mars 201848min

The idea for this podcast episode has its roots in a trip I made to the States last year. I was at a conference and one of the speakers was 1993 Karate World Champion Ricardo Teixeira. Ricardo was explaining how he came about becoming World Karate Champion and he shared his #1 secret to achieving this success, any ideas what it was? It was something that sounds incredibly boring, but it produces big results, and that is: Mastering the fundamentals. Ricardo explained that leading up to the World Championships, he spent months and months just practising the core fundamental moves. He wasn’t practising all those complicated, fancy looking moves you see in the Hollywood films. No. He spent weeks just practising a punch... Until he became so great at it that nobody else could beat him. I think this “mastering the fundamentals” approach has strong applications to trading too. Many traders, especially when starting out, think that the latest software or fanciest indicator is going to guarantee their success, but over time I think we realise that there are some core fundamentals to trading which really bring the results, and perhaps from time to time we even forget them too, so today we’re going to discuss some fundamentals with our guest Martin Lembak. Martin is in a very interesting position because he has access to hundreds of different trading strategies, being traded live in the markets, so he’s in a very exclusive position to see what works and what doesn’t. In our chat today you’ll here: Why it’s important to understand the characteristics of a market before trying to create or match strategies to that market, How to choose the types of strategies that suit the personality of the market and the types of trading styles that are the most popular (and profitable) in the markets right now, Commonalities between developers of successful trading strategies and what traders can do to accelerate their progress, The fundamentals of portfolio construction, including some challenges and false assumptions of creating portfolios, Broker selection and some warning signs when assessing whether a broker is safe to use, Plus much more. So, let’s get started, over to my chat with Martin.   Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. All content produced by Better System Trader is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

4 Mars 201835min

We have a really interesting one here for you today, one that may challenge your existing thoughts on trading models. I know this episode has certainly made me think about it from a different angle, so I hope you enjoy this. Our guest for this episode is Kevin Saunders from Tribelet Capital. Kevin is a specialist in electronic trading across many international exchanges, co-founding Non Correlated Capital in 2009, which later became a licensed CTA with more than USD 40 million under management. He has won a bunch of awards for his trading and academic achievements, and he also developed a program here in Australia called the “Joey Experiment” which we’re going to talk a little bit about as well. In our chat today you’ll discover: Why traders must disentangle themselves from the requirement that a model must work and produce money – and the alternative approach that uses charts more predictable than the underlying market, Why building a mathematical model is like creating a unicorn that doesn’t represent reality, Why traders need to stop thinking about building a model as a ‘solution’ and how to think about it instead, Plus much more. Sounds interesting? Well let’s get started, and jump over now to my chat with Kevin.   Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. All content produced by Better System Trader is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

18 Feb 201850min

In this podcast episode we’re going to be talking about something that can have a huge impact on the markets and on trading strategies. It’s something that can happen very quickly and cause a lot of damage, and that is spikes in volatility. And our special guest to discuss volatility spikes today is Andrew Thrasher, who published a research paper called ‘Forecasting a Volatility Tsunami’, which won the Charles Dow award in 2017. Whenever the VIX is at low levels we here all about in the mainstream media, with the implication that it’s about to rise, however a low level in the VIX alone doesn’t necessarily mean volatility is going to increase, and in our chat today Andrew is going to explain why and he’s also going to share his research and the 3 key factors that can actually improve predictions of volatility spikes. In our chat today you’ll here: How volatility is usually interpreted and why this common approach is unreliable and missing a key part of the picture, Why a low VIX reading alone is not a good predictor that volatility will rise, 3 key factors that can improve predictions of volatility spikes, Plus much more.   Disclaimer: Trading in the financial markets involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. All content produced by Better System Trader is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

4 Feb 201831min