GM64: Why the Economy is Vulnerable to Recession ft. Claudia Sahm

GM64: Why the Economy is Vulnerable to Recession ft. Claudia Sahm

Alan Dunne is joined by Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors and creator of the Sahm Rule, to discuss the current macroeconomic outlook. They explore the state of the US labour market and what the Sahm Rule reveals about the economy's current condition. They discuss the conflicting signals in today’s macroeconomic data and hear why Claudia believes the economy is more vulnerable to recession now than in recent years. They also discuss the decline in inflation over the past year, evaluating whether it was influenced by monetary policy and its implications for future policy decisions. Finally, they examine the shift towards more active fiscal and industrial policies and consider whether debt sustainability will become a key issue for the next US administration.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----


Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfoliohere.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Claudia on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:22 - Introduction to Claudia Sahm

04:26 - The background behind the Sahm Rule

08:34 - Does the current data call for a recession?

12:37 - Putting the data together

18:16 - Is the unemployment rate the most reliable indicator for recession?

23:51 - What can we rely on as investors?

29:48 - What is unusual about this inflation cycle?

35:32 - The balance of the dual mandate

40:42 - The state of physical policy

45:32 - The growth picture from a long term perspective

50:32 - The positive sides of inflation

53:17 - Book recommendations and advice for other investors

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Avsnitt(908)

TTU44: Buy Low & Sell High: Is It Really That Easy? ft. Mark Whitmore of Whitmore Capital Management – 2of2

TTU44: Buy Low & Sell High: Is It Really That Easy? ft. Mark Whitmore of Whitmore Capital Management – 2of2

In the second part of our conversation with the founder of Whitmore Capital Management, we learn the daily challenges, and lessons learned right from the founder and owner of a fledgling firm. We dive...

13 Nov 20141h 23min

TTU43: The Case For Currencies As An Asset Class ft. Mark Whitmore of Whitmore Capital Management – 1of2

TTU43: The Case For Currencies As An Asset Class ft. Mark Whitmore of Whitmore Capital Management – 1of2

Our next guest started his firm back in 2012, and we’re talking to him at a special moment in the company’s evolution as it starts to gain outside capital and make its mark in the industry. Listen in ...

10 Nov 20141h 22min

TTU42: Why You Need this Trading Strategy TODAY ft. Kathryn Kaminski of AlphaSimplex – 2of2

TTU42: Why You Need this Trading Strategy TODAY ft. Kathryn Kaminski of AlphaSimplex – 2of2

Welcome to Part 2 of our conversation with researcher and co-author of one of the definitive books on trend following. In this conversation, we dive into the the models that she used in writing the bo...

6 Nov 20141h 5min

TTU41: Trend Following Expert Explains All ft. Kathryn Kaminski of AlphaSimplex – 1of2

TTU41: Trend Following Expert Explains All ft. Kathryn Kaminski of AlphaSimplex – 1of2

Our next guest is different than any guest we’ve had before, as she is not a fund manager but has spent much of her life’s work researching and writing about the topic of trend following. She is a tru...

3 Nov 20141h 8min

TTU40: What To Do If You Are Making Too Much Money! ft. Mike Harris of Campbell & Company – 2of2

TTU40: What To Do If You Are Making Too Much Money! ft. Mike Harris of Campbell & Company – 2of2

Welcome to Part 2 of our conversation with Managed Futures expert and President Mike Harris of Campbell & Company. In this episode we delve into the specifics of Campbell & Company’s trading programs,...

30 Okt 20141h 9min

TTU39: President of Famous CTA Firm Tells All ft. Mike Harris of Campbell & Company – 1of2

TTU39: President of Famous CTA Firm Tells All ft. Mike Harris of Campbell & Company – 1of2

This episode goes in-depth into the history of one of the most well-known managed futures firms in the world, Campbell & Company. We explore the beginnings of the company, how they have dealt with cha...

27 Okt 20141h 9min

TTU38: The Real Secret Behind Trend Following & How It Works ft. Martin Lueck of Aspect Capital – 2of2

TTU38: The Real Secret Behind Trend Following & How It Works ft. Martin Lueck of Aspect Capital – 2of2

In the second part of our conversation with AHL founder and Aspect Capital Director, we dive into the details of his firm’s strategies and models. We explore how the models evolve, how he deals with r...

9 Okt 20141h 8min

TTU37: How to Build a Multi-Billion$ Trend-Following Firm ft. Martin Lueck of Aspect Capital – 1of2

TTU37: How to Build a Multi-Billion$ Trend-Following Firm ft. Martin Lueck of Aspect Capital – 1of2

In this episode, we get an exciting behind-the-scenes story of one of the most famous systematic trading firms of its time, AHL. Our guest is one of the firms founders and takes us from the company’s ...

6 Okt 20141h 9min

Populärt inom Business & ekonomi

badfluence
framgangspodden
varvet
rss-jossan-nina
rss-svart-marknad
uppgang-och-fall
rss-borsens-finest
avanzapodden
fill-or-kill
lastbilspodden
borsmorgon
bathina-en-podcast
rss-inga-dumma-fragor-om-pengar
24fragor
rss-dagen-med-di
rss-kort-lang-analyspodden-fran-di
svd-tech-brief
tabberaset
dynastin
loungepodden