GM64: Why the Economy is Vulnerable to Recession ft. Claudia Sahm

Alan Dunne is joined today by Elizabeth Burton to discuss managing a public fund versus a private fund, the challenges to those invested in the traditional 60 / 40 portfolio, the current outlook for inflation, performing above expectations, how to re-position a portfolio for higher expected inflation, fixed income versus real assets, categorising asset classes effectively, the limits of mean variance optimisation, using historical perspectives as an input into current decision-making, difficulties in the manager selection process, and how to simplify complex ideas in order to communicate more efficiently.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:The outlook for inflationAchieving high performance consistentlyHow to re-allocate a portfolio accordinglyMean variance optimisationWhether this time is differentSelecting the right managerSimplifying complexity for better understandingFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Elizabeth on LinkedIn.-----Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro03:30 - Elizabeth’s background and history in the investment world04:55 - Elizabeth’s perspective on today’s markets06:52 - Managing a public fund versus a private fund08:14 - Performing above expectations09:38 - The current outlook for inflation11:31 - How to re-position a portfolio for higher...

23 Feb 20221h 3min

Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss Trend Following versus Momentum strategies, the need to be humble about making economic forecasts, how Central Bank policies affect Trend Following performance, Cathie Wood and ARKK coming under pressure from the media, Trend Following on options, calculating a systems’ risk-to-stop, vetting new investors for their ability to handle risk, hard data versus stories, when to apply the ‘Moscow rules’.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:How Trend Following differs to momentumAvoiding the need to make predictionsThe Federal Reserve and its effects on Trend Following strategiesARKK’s media scrutiny following recent poor performanceThe similarities between Trend Following and optionsHow to calculate ‘risk-to-stop’Qualifying new investors before accepting them as clientsThe “Moscow Rules"-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro02:02 – Macro recap from Niels04:39 – Weekly review of performance23:00 – Q1 Zack: How should I calculate the risk-to-stop metric?28:42 – Q2 Peregrine: Vetting new investors for their ability to handle risk 42:09 – Q3 Graham: Can you detail some of the definitions of a breakout?47:24 – Trend Following versus Momentum01:00:58 – Molecules of prices01:08:31 – Data versus stories and when to...

20 Feb 20221h 17min

Alan Dunne is joined today by Sebastien Page to discuss how price shocks affect correlations, approaches to strategic asset allocation, how to position portfolios for the years ahead, the current outlook for equities their various sectors, investing in a rising interest rate environment, responding to unexpected regime shifts in the markets, defining and achieving utility maximisation, the merits and drawbacks of mean variance analysis, how to properly diversify a portfolio, the durability of treasury bonds, lessons from research on high performance individuals and teams, achieving a state of ‘flow’, and how to simplify complex financial topics.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:Ever-changing market correlationsStrategic asset allocationResponding to interest rate changesAchieving utility maximisationMean variance analysisPortfolio diversificationTreasury bondsHigh performance teamsSimplifying complexityFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Sebastien on LinkedIn & read his book.-----Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro03:52 - Sebastien’s journey into the investment management industry07:45 - How Sebastien’s book came about09:39 - Current view on the...

16 Feb 20221h 16min

Today, Alan Dunne joins me to discuss how the change of tone from central banks can affect markets globally, Trend Following in a rising interest rate environment, the case for and against including carry trades in a Trend Following portfolio, how managed futures Trend Following can help investors throughout ever-changing markets, the future of the traditional 60 / 40 portfolio, some takeaways from Alan’s conversation with Phil Huber on this week’s new Top Traders Unplugged Allocator Series, and why we might be entering a great period for Trend Following strategies.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:How central bank signalling affects risk appetite around the worldHow Trend Following might perform in a rising interest rate environmentIncluding carry trades in a Trend Following portfolioHow managed futures can help investor throughout ever-changing marketsThe viability of the 60 /40 portfolio going forwardWhy a new golden era for Trend Following might be emerging-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro02:36 - Macro recap from Niels05:29 - Weekly review of returns09:55 - How the change of tone from central banks affects the markets18:29 - Trend Following in rising interest rate environment25:19 - Including carry trades in a Trend Following portfolio36:12...

12 Feb 20221h 4min

Alan Dunne is joined today by Phil Huber, in the first of our new Allocator Series, to discuss the education gap that needs to be filled regarding efficient capital allocation, the typical clients and types of portfolios that Phil deals with, adjusting portfolios to accommodate for changing market cycles, defining ‘alternative investments’, the extent to which a portfolio should be actively managed, traditional versus alternative investments, the challenges of manager selection, cultivating a behavioural edge as an allocator, and how to manage difficult conversations with clients.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:Better education around capital allocationAllocating capital throughout various market cyclesHow to define an ‘alternative investment’How actively we should manage a portfolioTraditional versus alternative investmentsThe difficulties in the manager selection processBeing a great behavioural investor as an allocatorDifficult conversations with clientsAdvice for aspiring capital allocatorsFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Phil on Twitter.-----Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro02:44 - How 2022 has been for allocators so far03:13 - Phil Huber’s journey into investing05:46 - Why Phil wrote a book on capital allocation09:00 - The typical clients, and types of portfolios that

9 Feb 20221h 5min

Jerry Parker joins us today to discuss the importance of hanging on to your outlier winners, value investing versus trend following, the optimum number of entry & signals per trade, the need to redefine ‘safe assets’, Jerry & Richard Brennans’ thoughts on Howard Marks’ remarks about Trend Following, risk parity within a Trend Following portfolio, the unpredictability of endogenous outliers, and deconstructing the old narrative that ‘Trend Following is dead’.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:Letting winners run and cutting losses earlyUsing 1 entry signal and 1 exit signal per trade versus multiple signalsRedefining what are typically known as ‘safe assets’Howard Marks’ opinion on following priceAchieving effective risk parity within a portfolioHow endogenous outliers are hard to predict-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Jerry on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:44 – Macro recap from Niels05:24 – Weekly review of performance11:51 – Jerry & Rich’s thoughts on Howard Mark’s opinion of Trend Following24:46 – Why exit rules might be harder to create than entry rules43:45 – Risk parity within a Trend Following portfolio51:03 – The unpredictability of endogenous outliers01:10:08 – The old narrative that ‘Trend Following is dead’01:13:54 – Benchmark performance...

6 Feb 20221h 16min

Hari Krishnan is joined today by Cem Karsan, to discuss feedback loops across different markets, the decision to manage outside money, how institutions make trading decisions, the global macro effects from COVID-19, the importance of dealer flows in the markets, the feedback loop between options and their underlying assets, and approaches to delta hedging.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:How market behaviour is often intertwinedWhy Cem chose to manage outside capitalThe thinking behind institutional market movesHow the global pandemic affected marketsDealer flowsFeedback loopsDelta hedgingFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Hari on Twitter.Follow Cem on Twitter.-----Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro02:17 - Cem’s background, and current work19:18 - The decision to manage outside money24:06 - The trades that institutions like to make30:22 - Feedback loops within markets34:17 - The dynamic between futures and options51:15 - Using Econophysics to find hedging methods53:40 - Building various volatility models and research using toy models57:05 - Approaches to Delta hedging01:00:11 -Changes to qualitative features of overnight indices01:03:12 -Investment products on the VIX and effects on the...

2 Feb 20221h 22min

Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss how Federal Reserve policy affects the Trend Following environment, the benefits of scaling into and out of positions, Howard Marks’ opinion on the value of price, the factors that drive commodity prices, why typical inflation-hedges may not be as reliable as their reputation implies, how Trend Following is the perfect way to complete your portfolio, and the differences between a ‘trend chaser’ and a trend follower.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:Central bank policies and their effects on Trend Following performanceThe benefits of having multiple entries and exits across different timeframesHoward Marks’ recent thoughts on trading price action onlyThe status of the commodity marketsHedges against inflationCreating the perfect portfolio using Trend FollowingTrend Following versus ‘trend chasing’-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro02:05 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share our link with 3 of your like-minded friends: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen 02:36 – Macro recap from Niels06:22 – Weekly review of performance15:10 – Q1; Zack : Has there been any research into how systematic investing improves ones performance over...

31 Jan 20221h 16min