GM64: Why the Economy is Vulnerable to Recession ft. Claudia Sahm

Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss how markets will react to the likely upcoming tapering policies of central banks around the world, how Trend Followers overcome uncertainty, the reasons for and against overriding trading models, the historically optimum balance between bonds, stocks, and Trend Following, how trading non-correlated assets usually results in profitable long-term performance, and why longer-term trading systems tend to achieve the highest returns over time.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:Overcoming the uncertainty in marketsWhen to override your system, if everBalancing between difference asset classesThe need to trade non-correlated assetsWhy longer-term systems achieve higher win percentages-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro02:03 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share our link with 3 of your like-minded friends: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen 02:26 – Macro recap from Niels03:50 – Weekly review of performance09:12 – Q1; Glen: Can you give me some feedback on my equities Trend Following system?18:00 – Discussion on Central bank tapering42:15 – Clearing up some of the current discourse around inflation55:19 –...

28 Nov 20211h 14min

Jason Buck is joined today by Zed Francis to discuss the benefits of adding volatility strategies to your portfolio, achieving a negative a correlation to equities during market downturns, what Zed calls the ‘3 trading levers’, profiting from institutional volatility players, problems with some long-volatility strategies, when a discretionary approach is needed, how to adjust a portfolio if volatility is persisting, some thoughts on the VIX ETF, helping clients to achieve capital efficient accounts, maintaining liquidity for rebalancing during a selloff, and the deeper insight into the global macro landscape that being a volatility expert gives you.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:The benefits of volatility strategies to a portfolioHow to profit from large stock market selloffsSome of Zed Francis’s unique approaches to volatility tradingProfiting from institutional volatility tradersWhen to apply a discretionary approachThe VIX ETFHelping clients to be cash efficient in their portfoliosThe need for liquidity during large market movesFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Jason on Twitter.-----Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro01:41 - Why should somebody add volatility or tail-risk strategies into their portfolio?03:10 - Seeking a negative correlation to equities06:16 - Can you explain what you call your ‘3 trading levers’?08:11 - Can you breakdown your approach to combining ‘long gamma’ and ‘short Vega’?13:40 - Do you aim to profit off...

24 Nov 20211h 9min

Jerry Parker joins us today to discuss trading single stocks while maintaining a systematic approach, the benefits of trading a broad universe of assets, how investors naturally gravitate toward strategies with lesser returns, but hidden risks, why you need volatility in order to gain maximum returns, what to do with dividends as a Trend Follower, and diversifying Trend Following models versus diversifying look-back periods.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:A systematic approach to trading single stocksWhy you should trade a broad universe of assetsWhy the best thing to do is often the hardest thing to do as investorsWhy volatility is our friend, especially when it's directionalHow to manage dividends as a Trend Following traderThe best methods of diversification-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Jerry on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro01:41 - Feel free to share this podcast with like-minded friends using this link: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen and a big thank you to those who have left a rating or review on iTunes02:03 - Macro recap from Niels03:10 - Weekly review of returns06:44 - Q1; Robert: How does Jerry select his single stocks to trade?16:27 - Q2; Brian: What does Jerry do with the dividends from the singles stocks he trades?20:20 - Discussion on recent New York Times

22 Nov 20211h 3min

Special guest, Bastian Bolesta, joins Jason Buck today to discuss why volatility strategies should be added to our portfolios, how to keep improving as a trader while not over-optimising your systems, how recent large equity selloffs have affected Bastian’s approach to the markets, the average duration of his long volatility trades, how to weight recent data versus long-term data, trading VIX contracts intra-day, shorter-term Trend Following, momentum trading, mean-reversion strategies, and the cash efficiency of intraday models.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:Why we should be invested in volatility strategiesImproving over time but not over-tinkeringHow much markets may have changed in recent yearsThe average duration of volatility tradesRecent data versus long-term dataShorter-term Trend FollowingThe benefits of cash-efficiency within intraday modelsFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Jason on Twitter.-----Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro02:09 - Why should somebody add volatility strategies into their portfolio?04:09 - How do you overcome the problem of getting better but not wanting to tinker too much?11:03 - How has recent market behaviour affected your approach to volatility trading?22:05 - What is the average duration of your long volatility trades?28:02 - How do you weight recent data versus long-term data?31:07 - How do you look at trading intra-day VIX contracts?37:39 - What gave you...

18 Nov 20211h 14min

We’re joined by Hari Krishnan today, to discuss the ways in which Volatility strategies can complement Trend Following as a source of portfolio protection, how to manage expectations of investors, some experiences and thoughts from the large volatility events of 2018 and 2020, how to best protect yourself from large market selloffs, how to allocate between Trend Following and Volatility across different timeframes, and the possible effects of sustained inflation may have on volatility strategies.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:Complementing Trend Following portfolios with Volatility strategiesMaintaining composure during different market environmentsThe sharp selloffs of 2018 and 2020Sound approaches for re-allocating money at appropriate timesThe resilience of Trend FollowingVolatility strategies during long periods of sustained inflation-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Hari on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro02:28 - Feel free to share this podcast with like-minded friends using this link: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen and a big thank you to those who have left a 5-star rating or review on iTunes02:38 - Macro recap from Niels05:11 - Weekly review of returns11:09 - The ways in which Volatility strategies complement a Trend Following portfolio21:33 - Managing investors’...

14 Nov 20211h 8min

In today’s episode, Jason Buck is joined by Stefan Wintner of DUNN Capital, to discuss volatility as an asset class, the evolution of the VIX from its inception until now, some of the mechanics behind the VIX, the relationship between the VIX and the S&P 500, some thoughts on ‘volatility relative-value’ trading, the reliability of the VVIX, building and running models during different market environments, thoughts on kurtosis and skew, and volatility as a necessary component for a large Trend Following firm. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:Volatility as an asset class of its ownThe journey of the VIX from its early days until nowAnalysing the relationship between the VIX and the S&P 500What’s known as volatility relative-value tradingThe usefulness of the VVIXOperating models during different market and economic environmentsKurtosis and skewThe need for Volatility strategies as part of a diversified investment portfolioFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Jason on Twitter.-----Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro02:05 - Why should somebody add volatility strategies into their portfolio?04:48 - Do you consider Volatility to be an asset class of its own?05:58 - What was it like during the early days of the VIX market?08:28 - What is the VIX, and what is the calculation that goes into the VIX?14:07 - Tell us a little bit about the relationship...

10 Nov 20211h 14min

Rob Carver joins us today to discuss the perception of cryptocurrencies since the new Bitcoin futures ETF was launched, scaling into and out of positions, the possibility of a synthetic Bitcoin supply resulting from the new futures ETF, how to approach climate change and ESG investing as a Trend Follower, ideas for selecting which markets to trade, the benefits and drawbacks of trading single stocks, and how to embrace a creative mindset.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:The new credibility of cryptocurrenciesScaling into positions using various methodsESG investing as a Trend Following investorHow to select the optimum markets to tradeTrading single stocksEmbracing creativity as a systematic investor-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro01:14 - Feel free to share this podcast with like-minded friends using this link: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen and a big thank you to those who have left a rating or review on iTunes03:12 - Macro recap from Niels06:45 - Weekly review of returns15:04 - Niels: Has your opinion of cryptocurrencies changed since the launch of the new Bitcoin futures ETF was announced?20:04 - Q1; Adam: What is your advice for scaling into positions?28:18 - Q2; Brendan: Do Bitcoin cash-settled futures create a

7 Nov 20211h 25min

Today Jason Buck is joined by Noel Smith in the second of our series on Volatility. Topics discussed include: the benefits of ensemble investing, the predictability of market volatility, how certain market environments fool investors into thinking they are better than they really are, allocating between different strategies during different market environments, why nothing beats having ‘skin in the game’, balancing judgement calls versus algorithmic calls, pairs-trading VIX & bonds, determining when an asset is cheap or overpriced, and some thoughts on what might happen if markets enter a ‘stagflationary’ environment.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss: Ensemble investing and its benefits Whether market volatility can be predicted ahead of time The ways in which the markets can catch investors off-guard ‘Dialling’ into and out of strategies How Noel’s experience in prop trading and pit trading has helped him today Finding the balance between judgement calls and algorithmic signals Noel’s VIX and bonds pairs trade Assessing the current real value of an asset How to approach investing during a ‘stagflationary’ environmentFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Jason on Twitter.Follow Noel on Twitter, LinkedIn, and via his website.-----Episode TimeStamps:00:00 -...

2 Nov 20211h 13min