Top Traders Unplugged17 Juli 2024

GM65: Why Fed Will Raise Rates Next Year ft. Adam Posen

In this episode, Alan Dunne welcomes former central banker and current President of the Peterson Institute, Adam Posen, to discuss the economic outlook and monetary policy. Posen explains why he believes markets are mistaken in expecting rate cuts next year and identifies the key factors driving stronger economic growth. They explore global central banking and monetary policy, examining the successes and challenges of inflation targeting, the models used by central banks, and the most important variables to monitor for policy decisions. Posen also discusses why inflation targeting may become more challenging in the coming years and argues that less forward guidance from policymakers could be beneficial. They discuss the outlook for fiscal policy for the next administration and Posen explains that while a fiscal crisis is not his base case, he foresees significant upside risks to bond yields in the coming years.

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Episode TimeStamps:

02:10 - Introduction to Adam Posen

05:45 - Was it all about luck?

07:40 - Was the Covid19 period handled the wrong way economically?

12:06 - Are we going into more challenging times for inflation targeting?

13:56 - The political pressure on central banks

16:48 - The challenges of inflation targeting

23:47 - A micro-managing nightmare?

29:50 - What are the most important factors for policy makers?

35:16 - The lags of monetary policy

39:47 - How the structure of the economy impacts the monetary transmission mechanism

48:15 - Posen's view on the economy

51:07 - Are central banks inflating the debt away?

53:49 - A Fiscal crisis incoming?

01:00:10 - Artificial Intelligence - a game changer?

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