GM65: Why Fed Will Raise Rates Next Year ft. Adam Posen

In this episode, Alan Dunne welcomes former central banker and current President of the Peterson Institute, Adam Posen, to discuss the economic outlook and monetary policy. Posen explains why he believes markets are mistaken in expecting rate cuts next year and identifies the key factors driving stronger economic growth. They explore global central banking and monetary policy, examining the successes and challenges of inflation targeting, the models used by central banks, and the most important variables to monitor for policy decisions. Posen also discusses why inflation targeting may become more challenging in the coming years and argues that less forward guidance from policymakers could be beneficial. They discuss the outlook for fiscal policy for the next administration and Posen explains that while a fiscal crisis is not his base case, he foresees significant upside risks to bond yields in the coming years.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Adam on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:10 - Introduction to Adam Posen

05:45 - Was it all about luck?

07:40 - Was the Covid19 period handled the wrong way economically?

12:06 - Are we going into more challenging times for inflation targeting?

13:56 - The political pressure on central banks

16:48 - The challenges of inflation targeting

23:47 - A micro-managing nightmare?

29:50 - What are the most important factors for policy makers?

35:16 - The lags of monetary policy

39:47 - How the structure of the economy impacts the monetary transmission mechanism

48:15 - Posen's view on the economy

51:07 - Are central banks inflating the debt away?

53:49 - A Fiscal crisis incoming?

01:00:10 - Artificial Intelligence - a game changer?

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer