Sam Schulhofer-Wohl on How to Improve Treasury Market Resiliency

Scott Sumner is the Ralph G. Hawtrey Chair of Monetary Policy at the Mercatus Center. Scott joins David on Macro Musings to look back on his contributions to monetary policy research with the Mercatus Center and elsewhere, as well as discuss his upcoming book, Alternative Approaches to Monetary Policy. In particular, Scott and David discuss how the Fed's monetary policy mistakes in 2008 impacted the direction of Scott's research, the theory and prospects for a nominal GDP futures contract, the future of monetary policy in the Eurozone and whether the ECB has gotten more hawkish, how changing macroeconomic conditions across history help explain the changing popularity of particular policy models, and much more. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Scott's Twitter: @ScottSumnerTMI Scott's blog Scott's Mercatus profile David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Related Links: "Nominal GDP futures targeting" by Scott Sumner "A Market-Driven Nominal GDP Targeting Regime" by Scott Sumner "Using Futures Instrument Prices To Target Nominal Income" by Scott Sumner "The Impact of Futures Price Targeting on the Precision and Credibility of Monetary Policy" by Scott Sumner

12 Sep 202252min

Hanno Lustig is a professor of finance at Stanford University and a senior fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. Hanno is also a former guest on Macro Musings and rejoins the podcast to talk about fiscal dominance, global inflation, interest rates, wealth and equality, and Eurozone challenges. David and Hanno also discuss how to reconcile Treasury yield movements with impending fiscal dominance, why we're seeing a long-term decline in real interest rates, the early trends in post-pandemic inflation, and more. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Hanno's Twitter: @HannoLustig Hanno's Stanford profile David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Related Links: *What Drives Variation in the U.S. Debt/Output Ratio? The Dogs that Didn't Bark* by Hanno Lustig, Zhengyang Jiang, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, and Mindy Xiaolan *US Government Debt Valuation Puzzle* by Hanno Lustig, Zhengyang Jiang, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, and Mindy Xiaolan *Monetary Science, Fiscal Alchemy* by Eric Leeper

5 Sep 202255min

Josh Younger is currently a managing director and global head of ALM research and strategy at JP Morgan, and previously spent over a decade as a senior market strategist focused on interest rate and money markets. Josh joins David on Macro Musings to discuss the current state of the Treasury market and various reforms that have recently been proposed for it. Specifically, Josh and David discuss the history and evolving structure of the Treasury market, the emergence of high frequency trading firms over the past decade, the factors behind the 2020 dash for cash, current stresses on the Treasury market, as well as potential reforms for the market going forward. Transcript for the episode can be found here. David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox!

29 Aug 202254min

Carola Binder is an associate professor of economics at Haverford College and is currently a visiting scholar in the Monetary Policy Program at the Mercatus Center. She is also an associate editor at the Review of Economics and Statistics and the Journal of Money Credit and Banking. Carola rejoins Macro Musings to talk about inflation expectations and uncertainty. Specifically, David and Carola discuss why we should care about inflation expectations, which survey measures are most important, how policymakers should respond, and more. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Carola's Twitter: @cconces Carola's Haverford site Carola's Mercatus profile David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Related Links: *Consumer Inflation Uncertainty Is Rising* by Carola Binder *Stuck in the Seventies: Gas Prices and Consumer Sentiment* by Carola Binder and Christos Makridis *Inflation Expectations and Consumption: Evidence from 1951* by Carola Binder and Gillian Brunet *How Do Americans View Higher Inflation?* by Frank Newport *Inflation Expectations and Consumer Spending: The Role of Household Balance Sheets* by Lenard Lieb and Johannes Schuffels *Inflation Expectations and Readiness to Spend: Cross-Sectional Evidence* by Rudiger Bachmann, Tim Berg, and Eric Sims *A New Measure of Monetary Shocks: Derivation and Implications* by Christina Romer and David Romer

22 Aug 202253min

Jeffrey Lacker is a former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, where he served as its head from 2004 to 2017, and more recently served as a distinguished professor of economics at the Virginia Commonwealth University School of Business through 2022. Currently, Jeff serves on the Shadow Open Market Committee. He joins David on Macro Musings to discuss the traditions of the Richmond Fed, the history of the Federal Reserve's implicit inflation target prior to 2012, the two percent inflation target the Fed formalized in 2012, the more recent transition to an average inflation target, what the Fed should consider during its next comprehensive framework review, and much more. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Jeffrey's website Jeffrey's Richmond Fed profile David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Related Links: *A Look Back at the Consensus Statement* By Jeffrey Lacker *Money Market Fund Reform: Dealing with the Fundamental Problem* by Jeffrey Lacker

15 Aug 202252min

Gerard DiPippo is a senior fellow with the economics program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Previously, he spent 11 years in the US intelligence community as a deputy national intelligence officer for economic issues at the National Intelligence Council and as a senior economic analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency. In this bonus segment from the previous conversation, David and Gerard discuss the recent Senate report which details the Chinese Government's decade-long campaign to infiltrate the US Federal Reserve System. Gerard brings his expertise in both national security and monetary policy to this conversation with David to shed some light on this news story. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Gerard's Twitter: @gdp1985 Gerard's CSIS profile David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Related Links: *China Targeted Fed to Build Informant Network and Access Data, Probe Finds* by Kate O'Keeffe and Nick Timiraos *China targets Fed to Gain Influence, Senator Charges, Drawing Powell Rebuke* by Kate Davidson *China's Threat to the Fed: Chinese Influence and Information Theft at U.S. Federal Reserve Banks* Minority Staff Report, Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs

10 Aug 202217min

Gerard DiPippo is a senior fellow with the economics program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Previously, he spent 11 years in the US intelligence community as a deputy national intelligence officer for economic issues at the National Intelligence Council and as a senior economic analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency. Gerard joins Macro Musings to talk about the Russia Sanctions, the global monetary system, demographics, and other economic issues viewed through the lens of national security. He and David also discuss the lessons from the Russia sanctions, dollar dominance as a disciplinary tool, the implications of global population decline, why economic security means national security, and more. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Gerard's Twitter: @gdp1985 Gerard's CSIS profile David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Related Links: *Strangling the Bear? The Sanctions on Russia After Four Months* by Gerard DiPippo *Deterrence First: Applying Lessons From Sanctions on Russia to China* by Gerard DiPippo *Global Population Growth Hits Lowest Rate Since 1950* by Valentina Romei and Alan Smith

8 Aug 202259min

Tom Graff is the head of investments for Facet Wealth and has several decades leading fixed income departments. Tom joins David on Macro Musings to provide his thoughts on the recent FOMC meeting, the Q2 2022 GDP numbers and their implications for the economy, and the future path of Fed policy. Specifically, David and Tom discuss the recent GDP numbers from Q2 2022, the merits of public concerns over a recession, takeaways from the July FOMC meeting, interest rate theory and implicit forecasts of inflation, the fiscal theory of the price level, the continued importance of the Fed's framework, and much more. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Tom's Twitter: @tdgraff Tom's Facet Wealth profile David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Related Links: Real GDP Numbers updated for Q2 2022 Federal Open Market Committee: July 26-27, 2022 FOMC Meeting

1 Aug 202249min