285 | Nate Silver on Prediction, Risk, and Rationality

285 | Nate Silver on Prediction, Risk, and Rationality

Being rational necessarily involves engagement with probability. Given two possible courses of action, it can be rational to prefer the one that could possibly result in a worse outcome, if there's also a substantial probability for an even better outcome. But one's attitude toward risk -- averse, tolerant, or even seeking -- also matters. Do we work to avoid the worse possible outcome, even if there is potential for enormous reward? Nate Silver has long thought about probability and prediction, from sports to politics to professional poker. In his his new book On The Edge: The Art of Risking Everything, Silver examines a set of traits characterizing people who welcome risks.

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Blog post with transcript: https://www.preposterousuniverse.com/podcast/2024/08/12/285-nate-silver-on-prediction-risk-and-rationality/

Nate Silver received a B.A. in economics from the University of Chicago. He worked as a baseball analyst, developing the PECOTA statistical system (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm). He later founded the FiveThirtyEight political polling analysis site. His first book, The Signal and the Noise, was awarded the Phi Beta Kappa Society Book Award in Science. He is the co-host (with Maria Konnikova) of the Risky Business podcast.


Avsnitt(418)

281 | Samir Okasha on the Philosophy of Agency and Evolution

281 | Samir Okasha on the Philosophy of Agency and Evolution

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280 | François Chollet on Deep Learning and the Meaning of Intelligence

280 | François Chollet on Deep Learning and the Meaning of Intelligence

Which is more intelligent, ChatGPT or a 3-year old? Of course this depends on what we mean by "intelligence." A modern LLM is certainly able to answer all sorts of questions that require knowledge far...

24 Juni 20241h 41min

279 | Ellen Langer on Mindfulness and the Body

279 | Ellen Langer on Mindfulness and the Body

For those of us who are not dualists, the mind arises from our physical bodies -- mostly the brain, but the rest of the body has a role to play. And yet it remains tempting to treat the mind as a thin...

17 Juni 20241h 11min

278 | Kieran Healy on the Technology of Ranking People

278 | Kieran Healy on the Technology of Ranking People

We claim to love all of our children, friends, and students equally. But perhaps deep down you assign a ranking to them, from favorite to not-so-favorite. Ranking and quantifying people is an irresist...

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AMA | June 2024

AMA | June 2024

Welcome to the June 2024 Ask Me Anything episode of Mindscape! These monthly excursions are funded by Patreon supporters (who are also the ones asking the questions). We take questions asked by Patreo...

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277 | Cumrun Vafa on the Universe According to String Theory

277 | Cumrun Vafa on the Universe According to String Theory

String theory, the current leading candidate for a theory of quantum gravity as well as other particles and forces, doesn't connect directly to the world we see. It's possible that there is a large la...

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276 | Gavin Schmidt on Measuring, Predicting, and Protecting Our Climate

276 | Gavin Schmidt on Measuring, Predicting, and Protecting Our Climate

The Earth's climate keeps changing, largely due to the effects of human activity, and we haven't been doing enough to slow things down. Indeed, over the past year, global temperatures have been higher...

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275 | Solo: Quantum Fields, Particles, Forces, and Symmetries

275 | Solo: Quantum Fields, Particles, Forces, and Symmetries

Publication week! Say hello to Quanta and Fields, the second volume of the planned three-volume series The Biggest Ideas in the Universe. This volume covers quantum physics generally, but focuses espe...

13 Maj 20242h 12min

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