285 | Nate Silver on Prediction, Risk, and Rationality

285 | Nate Silver on Prediction, Risk, and Rationality

Being rational necessarily involves engagement with probability. Given two possible courses of action, it can be rational to prefer the one that could possibly result in a worse outcome, if there's also a substantial probability for an even better outcome. But one's attitude toward risk -- averse, tolerant, or even seeking -- also matters. Do we work to avoid the worse possible outcome, even if there is potential for enormous reward? Nate Silver has long thought about probability and prediction, from sports to politics to professional poker. In his his new book On The Edge: The Art of Risking Everything, Silver examines a set of traits characterizing people who welcome risks.

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Blog post with transcript: https://www.preposterousuniverse.com/podcast/2024/08/12/285-nate-silver-on-prediction-risk-and-rationality/

Nate Silver received a B.A. in economics from the University of Chicago. He worked as a baseball analyst, developing the PECOTA statistical system (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm). He later founded the FiveThirtyEight political polling analysis site. His first book, The Signal and the Noise, was awarded the Phi Beta Kappa Society Book Award in Science. He is the co-host (with Maria Konnikova) of the Risky Business podcast.


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70 | Katie Mack on How the Universe Will End

70 | Katie Mack on How the Universe Will End

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69 | Cory Doctorow on Technology, Monopoly, and the Future of the Internet

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21 Okt 20191h 17min

68 | Melanie Mitchell on Artificial Intelligence and the Challenge of Common Sense

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67 | Kate Jeffery on Entropy, Complexity, and Evolution

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Our observable universe started out in a highly non-generic state, one of very low entropy, and disorderliness has been growing ever since. How, then, can we account for the appearance of complex syst...

7 Okt 20191h 12min

66 | Will Wilkinson on Partisan Polarization and the Urban/Rural Divide

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30 Sep 20191h 52min

65 | Michael Mann on Why Our Climate Is Changing and How We Know

65 | Michael Mann on Why Our Climate Is Changing and How We Know

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