285 | Nate Silver on Prediction, Risk, and Rationality

285 | Nate Silver on Prediction, Risk, and Rationality

Being rational necessarily involves engagement with probability. Given two possible courses of action, it can be rational to prefer the one that could possibly result in a worse outcome, if there's also a substantial probability for an even better outcome. But one's attitude toward risk -- averse, tolerant, or even seeking -- also matters. Do we work to avoid the worse possible outcome, even if there is potential for enormous reward? Nate Silver has long thought about probability and prediction, from sports to politics to professional poker. In his his new book On The Edge: The Art of Risking Everything, Silver examines a set of traits characterizing people who welcome risks.

Support Mindscape on Patreon.

Blog post with transcript: https://www.preposterousuniverse.com/podcast/2024/08/12/285-nate-silver-on-prediction-risk-and-rationality/

Nate Silver received a B.A. in economics from the University of Chicago. He worked as a baseball analyst, developing the PECOTA statistical system (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm). He later founded the FiveThirtyEight political polling analysis site. His first book, The Signal and the Noise, was awarded the Phi Beta Kappa Society Book Award in Science. He is the co-host (with Maria Konnikova) of the Risky Business podcast.


Avsnitt(418)

AMA | June 2025

AMA | June 2025

Welcome to the June 2025 Ask Me Anything episode of Mindscape! These monthly excursions are funded by Patreon supporters (who are also the ones asking the questions). We take questions asked by Patreo...

2 Juni 20253h 23min

316 | Niayesh Afshordi and Phil Halper

316 | Niayesh Afshordi and Phil Halper

Einstein's general theory of relativity, plus some reasonable assumptions about the universe and what it's made of, has a remarkable implication: that as we trace cosmic evolution into the far past, w...

26 Maj 20251h 28min

315 | Branden Fitelson on the Logic and Use of Probability

315 | Branden Fitelson on the Logic and Use of Probability

Every time you see an apple spontaneously break away from a tree, it falls downward. You therefore claim that there is a law of physics: apples fall downward from trees. But how can you really know? A...

19 Maj 20251h 28min

314 | Karen Lloyd on the Deep Underground Biosphere

314 | Karen Lloyd on the Deep Underground Biosphere

There are living creatures dwelling deep below the surface of the Earth, as deep as we are able to drill. These hearty microorganisms are related to more familiar life forms on land and under water, b...

12 Maj 20251h 9min

313 | Eric Topol on the Changing Face of Medicine and Aging

313 | Eric Topol on the Changing Face of Medicine and Aging

Medical science is advancing at an astonishing rate. Today we talk with leading expert Eric Topol about two aspects of this story. First, the use of artificial intelligence in medicine, especially in ...

5 Maj 20251h 12min

AMA | May 2025

AMA | May 2025

Welcome to the May 2025 Ask Me Anything episode of Mindscape! These monthly excursions are funded by Patreon supporters (who are also the ones asking the questions). We take questions asked by Patreon...

28 Apr 20253h 38min

312 | Thomas Levenson on the Mutual History of Humans and Germs

312 | Thomas Levenson on the Mutual History of Humans and Germs

The germ theory of disease is a crowning achievement of science, up there with modern physics, continental drift, and evolution via natural selection. (Even if there will always be cranky skeptics.) B...

21 Apr 20251h 31min

311 | Annaka Harris on Whether Consciousness is Fundamental

311 | Annaka Harris on Whether Consciousness is Fundamental

Questions about consciousness range from the precise and empirical -- what neurons fire when I have some particular experience -- to the deeply profound -- does consciousness emerge from matter, or do...

14 Apr 20251h 10min

Populärt inom Vetenskap

dumma-manniskor
p3-dystopia
svd-nyhetsartiklar
allt-du-velat-veta
kapitalet-en-podd-om-ekonomi
rss-vetenskapsradion-2
rss-vetenskapsradion
medicinvetarna
det-morka-psyket
rss-ufo-bortom-rimligt-tvivel-2
bildningspodden
halsorevolutionen
hacka-livet
sexet
rss-geopodden-2
rss-arkeologi-historia-podden-som-graver-i-vart-kulturlandskap
vetenskapsradion
har-vi-akt-till-mars-an
rss-spraket
matfrihet