071 - The Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy

071 - The Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy

When you desire meaning, when you want things to line up, when looking for something specific, you tend to notice patterns everywhere, which leads you to ask the question, “What are the odds?” Usually, the odds are actually pretty good.


For instance: Does the Bermuda Triangle seem quite as mysterious once you know that just about any triangle of that size drawn over the globe just about anywhere planes and ships frequently travel will contain as many, if not more, missing planes and ships?

Drawing circles (or triangles) around the spots where randomness clusters together seemingly chance events is called The Texas Sharpshooter fallacy, and it is one of the easiest mistakes to make when trying to understand big, complex sets of data.

Though some things in life seem too amazing to be coincidence, too odd to be random, too similar to be chance, given enough time (and enough events) randomness will begin to clump up in places. Since you are born looking for those spots where chance events have built up like sand into dunes, picking out clusters of coincidence is a predicable malfunction of a normal human mind, and it can easily lead to the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy.

Listen as three experts in reasoning and logic explain why it is so easy to find what you are looking for when you go anomaly hunting in a large set of data.

This episode of the You Are Not So Smart Podcast is the fifth in a full season of episodes exploring logical fallacies. The first episode is here.

• Show Notes: http://bit.ly/1Nokeze

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• Donate Directly through PayPal: https://www.paypal.me/DavidMcRaney

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Avsnitt(327)

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322 - Intellectual Humility - Tenelle Porter

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15 Sep 20251h 7min

321 - Easy Crafts for the Insane - Kelly Williams Brown (rebroadcast)

321 - Easy Crafts for the Insane - Kelly Williams Brown (rebroadcast)

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1 Sep 20251h 18min

320 - Misguided - Matthew Facciani

320 - Misguided - Matthew Facciani

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18 Aug 20251h 8min

319 - Love Factually - Eli Finkel and Paul Eastwick

319 - Love Factually - Eli Finkel and Paul Eastwick

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4 Aug 20251h 6min

318 - The Intention Action Gap - Britt Frank (rebroadcast)

318 - The Intention Action Gap - Britt Frank (rebroadcast)

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21 Juli 20251h 10min

317 - Don't Talk About Politics - Sarah Stein Lubrano

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Sarah Stein Lubrano tells us about her new book, Don't Talk About Politics, which urges us not to lose hope or become frozen in frustration when it comes to polarization and faulty discourse because the good news is that we don't just know, scientifically, why the marketplace of ideas is currently failing us, we know how, scientifically, we can do better. Sarah Stein Lubrano's WebsiteDon't Talk About PoliticsMotivated Numeracy PaperHow Minds ChangeDavid McRaney’s TwitterYANSS TwitterShow NotesNewsletterPatreon Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

7 Juli 20251h 10min

316 - Cultures of Growth - Mary C. Murphy (rebroadcast)

316 - Cultures of Growth - Mary C. Murphy (rebroadcast)

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23 Juni 20251h 8min

315 - May Contain Lies - Alex Edmans

315 - May Contain Lies - Alex Edmans

Alex Edmans, a professor of finance at London Business School, tells us how to avoid the Ladder of Misinference by examining how narratives, statistics, and articles can mislead, especially when they align with our preconceived notions and confirm what we believe is true, assume is true, and wish were true.Alex Edmans May Contain LiesWhat to Test in a Post Trust WorldHow Minds ChangeDavid McRaney’s TwitterDavid McRaney’s BlueSkyYANSS TwitterYANSS FacebookNewsletterKittedPatreon Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

9 Juni 202539min

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