#78 – Danny Hernandez on forecasting and the drivers of AI progress

#78 – Danny Hernandez on forecasting and the drivers of AI progress

Companies use about 300,000 times more computation training the best AI systems today than they did in 2012 and algorithmic innovations have also made them 25 times more efficient at the same tasks.

These are the headline results of two recent papers — AI and Compute and AI and Efficiency — from the Foresight Team at OpenAI. In today's episode I spoke with one of the authors, Danny Hernandez, who joined OpenAI after helping develop better forecasting methods at Twitch and Open Philanthropy.

Danny and I talk about how to understand his team's results and what they mean (and don't mean) for how we should think about progress in AI going forward.

Links to learn more, summary and full transcript.

Debates around the future of AI can sometimes be pretty abstract and theoretical. Danny hopes that providing rigorous measurements of some of the inputs to AI progress so far can help us better understand what causes that progress, as well as ground debates about the future of AI in a better shared understanding of the field.

If this research sounds appealing, you might be interested in applying to join OpenAI's Foresight team — they're currently hiring research engineers.

In the interview, Danny and I (Arden Koehler) also discuss a range of other topics, including:
• The question of which experts to believe
• Danny's journey to working at OpenAI
• The usefulness of "decision boundaries"
• The importance of Moore's law for people who care about the long-term future
• What OpenAI's Foresight Team's findings might imply for policy
• The question whether progress in the performance of AI systems is linear
• The safety teams at OpenAI and who they're looking to hire
• One idea for finding someone to guide your learning
• The importance of hardware expertise for making a positive impact

Chapters:

  • Rob’s intro (00:00:00)
  • The interview begins (00:01:29)
  • Forecasting (00:07:11)
  • Improving the public conversation around AI (00:14:41)
  • Danny’s path to OpenAI (00:24:08)
  • Calibration training (00:27:18)
  • AI and Compute (00:45:22)
  • AI and Efficiency (01:09:22)
  • Safety teams at OpenAI (01:39:03)
  • Careers (01:49:46)
  • AI hardware as a possible path to impact (01:55:57)
  • Triggers for people’s major decisions (02:08:44)

Producer: Keiran Harris
Audio mastering: Ben Cordell
Transcriptions: Zakee Ulhaq

Avsnitt(324)

Have we helped you have a bigger social impact? Our annual survey, plus other ways we can help you.

Have we helped you have a bigger social impact? Our annual survey, plus other ways we can help you.

1. Fill out our annual impact survey here. 2. Find a great vacancy on our job board. 3. Learn about our key ideas, and get links to our top articles. 4. Join our newsletter for an email about what's n...

16 Sep 20193min

#63 – Vitalik Buterin on better ways to fund public goods, blockchain's failures, & effective giving

#63 – Vitalik Buterin on better ways to fund public goods, blockchain's failures, & effective giving

Historically, progress in the field of cryptography has had major consequences. It has changed the course of major wars, made it possible to do business on the internet, and enabled private communicat...

3 Sep 20193h 18min

#62 – Paul Christiano on messaging the future, increasing compute, & how CO2 impacts your brain

#62 – Paul Christiano on messaging the future, increasing compute, & how CO2 impacts your brain

Imagine that – one day – humanity dies out. At some point, many millions of years later, intelligent life might well evolve again. Is there any message we could leave that would reliably help them out...

5 Aug 20192h 11min

#61 - Helen Toner on emerging technology, national security, and China

#61 - Helen Toner on emerging technology, national security, and China

From 1870 to 1950, the introduction of electricity transformed life in the US and UK, as people gained access to lighting, radio and a wide range of household appliances for the first time. Electricit...

17 Juli 20191h 54min

#60 - Phil Tetlock on why accurate forecasting matters for everything, and how you can do it better

#60 - Phil Tetlock on why accurate forecasting matters for everything, and how you can do it better

Have you ever been infuriated by a doctor's unwillingness to give you an honest, probabilistic estimate about what to expect? Or a lawyer who won't tell you the chances you'll win your case? Their beh...

28 Juni 20192h 11min

#59 – Cass Sunstein on how change happens, and why it's so often abrupt & unpredictable

#59 – Cass Sunstein on how change happens, and why it's so often abrupt & unpredictable

It can often feel hopeless to be an activist seeking social change on an obscure issue where most people seem opposed or at best indifferent to you. But according to a new book by Professor Cass Sunst...

17 Juni 20191h 43min

#58 – Pushmeet Kohli of DeepMind on designing robust & reliable AI systems and how to succeed in AI

#58 – Pushmeet Kohli of DeepMind on designing robust & reliable AI systems and how to succeed in AI

When you're building a bridge, responsibility for making sure it won't fall over isn't handed over to a few 'bridge not falling down engineers'. Making sure a bridge is safe to use and remains standin...

3 Juni 20191h 30min

Rob Wiblin on human nature, new technology, and living a happy, healthy & ethical life

Rob Wiblin on human nature, new technology, and living a happy, healthy & ethical life

This is a cross-post of some interviews Rob did recently on two other podcasts — Mission Daily (from 2m) and The Good Life (from 1h13m). Some of the content will be familiar to regular listeners — bu...

13 Maj 20192h 18min

Populärt inom Utbildning

historiepodden-se
rss-bara-en-till-om-missbruk-medberoende-2
det-skaver
alska-oss
nu-blir-det-historia
harrisons-dramatiska-historia
sektledare
rss-viktmedicinpodden
johannes-hansen-podcast
not-fanny-anymore
roda-vita-rosen
allt-du-velat-veta
i-vantan-pa-katastrofen
rss-max-tant-med-max-villman
rss-sjalsligt-avkladd
rikatillsammans-om-privatekonomi-rikedom-i-livet
rss-basta-livet
sa-in-i-sjalen
rss-om-vi-ska-vara-arliga
rss-relationsrevolutionen