Why central bank divergence can only go so far
ING THINK aloud6 Juni 2024

Why central bank divergence can only go so far

The European Central Bank is widely expected to cut interest rates on Thursday from a record high of 4%. It’s an unusual move for two reasons: There’s no recession or crisis to precipitate a cut – in fact the eurozone economy has recently shown signs of improvement. And it comes ahead of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve, which has traditionally led the way for the ECB, but isn’t expected to ease policy until later in the year. In this week’s THINK aloud, a replay of our live quarterly webinar, ING’s Carsten Brzeski and James Knightley discuss why policymakers are currently pursuing different paths, how long the divergence could last, and whether the coming US and European elections could influence decisions on monetary policy. James Smith looks at the timing of a Bank of England rate cut amid a crucial UK vote while Chris Turner explains what it could all mean for the markets.

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The Trump Effect: A global economy gripped by uncertainty

The Trump Effect: A global economy gripped by uncertainty

President Trump's unpredictable trade policy has undermined confidence and deepened uncertainty across the global economy this year. In this podcast, ING's James Knightley, Carsten Brzeski, and James ...

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China's playbook for US trade talks

China's playbook for US trade talks

Officials from China and the US will meet in Switzerland this week to de-escalate a trade war that has disrupted global supply chains, deepened economic uncertainty, and triggered significant market v...

8 Maj 202519min

Corporate bonds caught in tariff turmoil

Corporate bonds caught in tariff turmoil

President Trump’s sweeping tariff announcement on April 2nd, a 90-day pause for most countries yet with escalating tariffs on China, exemptions on tech products from China, and later, news that these ...

15 Apr 20257min

What Trump's tariffs mean for Central and Eastern Europe

What Trump's tariffs mean for Central and Eastern Europe

US-EU tariffs are a threat to the export-driven economies of Central and Eastern Europe.But ING economists argue that the region has ways to manage the disruption, and a trade war could serve as a muc...

4 Apr 202540min

Why a Mar-a-Lago Accord to weaken the dollar could be an act of self-harm

Why a Mar-a-Lago Accord to weaken the dollar could be an act of self-harm

The root cause of America's economic imbalances can be traced to a single factor: the strength of the US dollar. At least, that’s the view of Stephen Miran, President Trump’s newly appointed Chairman ...

26 Mars 202516min

Europe's road to rearmament

Europe's road to rearmament

President Trump’s decision to temporarily suspend military support for Ukraine, coupled with his implicit threat to withdraw US forces from Europe unless Nato allies increase their defence spending, h...

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Commodities Outlook 2025: How Trump's policies, Russian sanctions, and China's economic slowdown will shape the market

Commodities Outlook 2025: How Trump's policies, Russian sanctions, and China's economic slowdown will shape the market

In this podcast, ING commodities analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey share their views on the outlook for energy, metals, and agriculture in the year ahead.

23 Jan 202522min

Economic Outlook 2025: Trump, Trade Wars, and Tense Politics

Economic Outlook 2025: Trump, Trade Wars, and Tense Politics

A new US president, trade war threats, political instability in Europe, and mounting fiscal concerns obscure the outlook for the global economy in 2025. In this podcast, ING's James Knightley, Carsten...

10 Dec 202420min

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