Space: The Next Investment Frontier

For this special episode of Exchanges, we’re running our newest podcast, Top of Mind at Goldman Sachs. Hosted by Allison Nathan, a senior strategist in Goldman Sachs Research, Top of Mind examines the macroeconomic issues that are shaping the global economy. In each episode, Allison interviews Goldman Sachs experts—as well as influential policymakers, academics, and investors—on market-moving topics. The series’ latest installment, Dissecting the Market Disconnect, takes a close look at the divergence between falling bond yields and rising equity prices. Bridgewater Associates’ Ray Dalio and Goldman Sachs’ Jan Hatzius join Allison to dive into this dynamic and understand how concerned investors should really be about economic growth.        Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

22 Aug 201922min

The US Federal Reserve’s sharp pivot toward easing amid substantial White House pressure has raised concerns about central bank independence, as have developments in other advanced and emerging market economies alike. How worried we should be about this threat—and its implications for policy, the economy, and markets—is Top of Mind. In this episode, Goldman Sachs Research’s Allison Nathan interviews former central bankers Donald Kohn and Sir Paul Tucker who explain why central bank independence is critical to maintaining price and financial stability—even today when too little, rather than too much, inflation is the main problem. But while Kohn is concerned that Trump’s overt pressure could undermine Fed credibility, Tucker worries more that over-reliance on central banks since the GFC has left them vulnerable to politicization. Nathan also speaks with the firm’s chief economist Jan Hatzius who does not believe the Fed has responded directly to pressure from the White House, but does think that political pressure could already be influencing Fed policy through indirect channels such as bond market pricing. That said, Hatzius argues this in itself shouldn’t inflict too much harm on the economy unless inflationary pressures rise materially. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

13 Aug 201924min

The next 10 years of mobility will bring more change in the way that people and products move than any decade since the invention of the automobile, Goldman Sachs Research’s Heath Terry explains in this episode. Emerging technologies and business models like ride-hailing and sharing, autonomous driving and delivery, micro-mobility and even eVTOL (flying cars, finally) stand to disrupt profit pools that we estimate exceed $700 billion, and venture-backed startups and incumbents will attempt to address over $7 trillion in spending. Given the size of the opportunity, it should come as no surprise that access to capital has created a hyper-competitive environment marked by massive operating losses driven by marketing, subsidies, incentives, and capital investment. As this environment matures and rationalizes, Goldman Sachs Research expects consolidation that will lead to profitability, the establishment of category leaders, and significant opportunities for investors. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

25 Juli 201923min

With the US expansion now the longest on record and no shortage of risks on the horizon, growth uncertainty is Top of Mind. This uncertainty has been at the heart of the dovish pivot from central banks this year, which has generally helped push bond yields lower in anticipation of Fed rate cuts ahead, but equity prices higher. So just how concerned about growth should we really be? In this episode of the Top of Mind at Goldman Sachs podcast, Goldman Sachs Research’s Allison Nathan asks Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio, Goldman Sachs’ Jan Hatzius and others to weigh in. Dalio argues that recent price action makes sense given the Fed’s easier stance, but worries we’re pushing the limits of monetary easing, which—among other political and geopolitical factors—will ultimately bring about a negative shift in growth and markets. But Jan Hatzius argues that markets are perhaps too concerned about growth and not concerned enough about the direction of Fed policy, as the costs of easing now potentially outweigh the benefits. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

16 Juli 201921min

In this episode, Jennifer Davis, head of retail investment banking for Goldman Sachs, explains how retailers are expanding their growth strategies against a backdrop of continued e-commerce growth and shifting demographics. While Davis acknowledges that growth strategies are “very specific to a retailer or brand,” she outlines three key areas of focus for her clients: customer demographic growth, channel growth (including the rise of digitally native brands), and geographic growth.   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

3 Juli 201923min

Although financial markets tend to be explained largely in quantitative terms, human behavior still plays a major role in driving price action, says Sheba Jafari, head of technical analysis for Goldman Sachs’ Securities Division. Jafari, who looks at historical patterns to predict movements in markets, explains: “In my opinion, the mere fact that we have the existence of [asset] bubbles indicates that markets are still run by emotions -- fear, greed and hope.” Also in the episode, Jafari discusses the impact of AI and machine learning on trading decisions and her own unlikely path from film studies to finance. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

26 Juni 201917min

While systematic investing has origins in academia dating back to the 1950s, only in the past several years has it evolved into practical applications for portfolio construction. In this episode, Heather Shemilt and Tom Leake of the Goldman Sachs Securities Division explain how ARP strategies work and the diversification and customization benefits they offer investors. "Alternative risk premia, or ARP, are long/short strategies that are designed to generate positive returns in exchange for an investor taking risk," Shemilt explains. "These strategies are seeking to provide persistent exposure to these factors or risk premia, such as carry value or momentum...What's interesting is that ARP can be systematically harvested across all of the asset classes." Also in the episode, they discuss how the ARP industry will continue to evolve, including the impact of big data, AI and machine learning on these strategies, with Leake acknowledging adoption of these technologies is still in "early days." This podcast was recorded on May 15, 2019. All price references and market forecasts correspond to the date of this recording. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or in part. The information contained in this podcast does not constitute research or a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to the listener. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this podcast and any liability therefor (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed. The views expressed in this podcast are not necessarily those of Goldman Sachs, and Goldman Sachs is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting or tax advice or recommendations in this podcast. In addition, the receipt of this podcast by any listener is not to be taken as constituting the giving of investment advice by Goldman Sachs to that listener, nor to constitute such person a client of any Goldman Sachs entity. Copyright 2019 Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC. All rights reserved. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

10 Juni 201937min

The prospect of a larger and longer trade war has increased as US-China trade negotiations have taken a turn for the worse and President Trump has opened up trade battles on new fronts. Allison Nathan from Goldman Sachs Research speaks with experts about how we got here, where tensions may go from here, and potential implications for the global economy and beyond in this episode of Top of Mind at Goldman Sachs. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

7 Juni 201919min